The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 5th, 2024.
Employment / Unemployment
- Seasonally Adjusted U3: 3.8% down from 3.9% in February
- Unadjusted U3: 3.9% down from 4.2% in February
- Unadjusted U6: 7.4% down from 7.8% in February
- Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7% up from 62.5%
- Employment: 157.218 million up from 156.559 million
- Next data release May 3rd 2024
Summary:
Total Employed increased in March, Labor Force Participation was up and Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was down. Overall, an encouraging report. The market took this as a positive sign and rallied. The one concerning area is the continued increase in government employees as a percentage of overall employees.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction…”
“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.4 percent) increased in March, while the rates for Asians (2.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.5 percent) decreased. The
jobless rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), and Whites (3.4 percent) showed little or no change over the month…”
“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, was little changed in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.5 percent of all unemployed people. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, were little changed in March. These measures showed little change over the year.”
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.555 million for February which they adjusted to 156.559 million (for a gain of 4,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 157.218 million jobs for March which is actually a gain of 663,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But many of these jobs came from government. Theoretically, the government could make the unemployment numbers continue to look good by simply hiring all the unemployed workers.
Government Employment
As indicated above, Government Employment is rising rapidly sucking up available employees and keeping the unemployment rate low.
If we compare the above chart with the total Private Employment we can see that government employment is rising at a steeper rate than private employment. Initially, after COVID, private employment resumed sharply but then it leveled off some. But the government employment increase hasn’t leveled off.
Total government employment is 23.270 million compared to a total private employment of 134.863 million.
Current Unemployment Rate Chart
Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, as well as above the lows made early in 2023. But have retreated away from the “yellow zone.”
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