• About WordPress
    • WordPress.org
    • Documentation
    • Learn WordPress
    • Support
    • Feedback
  • Log In
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Home
  • Contact us
  • Related Sites
    • InflationData.com
    • Financial Trend Forecaster
    • Your Family Finances
    • Elliott Wave University
    • Optio Money
  • About
    • Terms of Use
    • Disclaimer & Disclosure
    • Privacy Statement
  • Sitemap
    • 2009-2010 Posts
    • 2011 Posts

UnemploymentData.com

Your Source for Employment and Unemployment Data

Unemployment
  • Charts
    • Current Unemployment Rate Chart
    • Current Employment Rate (Chart and Data)
    • Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart
    • Historical Employment Data
    • Employment Population Ratio
    • Misery Index
  • Unemployment
    • Historical Unemployment Rate Tables
    • What Is U-6 Unemployment?
    • Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate
    • BLS vs. Gallup Unemployment Numbers
    • Current U-6 Unemployment Rate
    • What is the Labor Force Participation Rate?
    • What is the Real Unemployment Rate?
  • Employment
    • Current Employment Rate (Chart and Data)
    • Historical Employment Data
    • Contacting a Live Person at the State Employment Commission
      • How to Talk to a Live Person at the Virginia Unemployment Commission
      • Florida’s FLUID Unemployment Program
    • Benefits
      • Insurance
      • Retirement
    • Careers
    • Employment Costs
    • Experience
    • Government
    • Job Hunting
      • Interview
      • Resume
  • Find Articles
  • Education
    • Skills
  • General
    • Small Business
      • Outsourcing
    • Success
You are here: Home / Archives for U6 minus U3

U6 minus U3

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

March 7, 2020 by Tim McMahon

current unemployment rateThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 6th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% in January to 3.5% in February. Thus returning to the previous low levels of September, November, and December after increasing slightly in January.
We are still in record low territory and that won’t change overnight. Seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment notched up 1/10th of a percent in January and fell back the same amount in February. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remains in territory that it hasn’t seen in years…

This is better than expected results and according to @AP News it shows that “the economy was in strong shape before the coronavirus began to sweep
through the U.S. “

The average monthly wage is up almost $130 over year-ago levels so two-income families are bringing in an average of at least $250 a month more. (See employment by Sector for more info).

This month we will also look at unemployment by Education level, and reasons for unemployment.

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

  • Unadjusted U-3 was down from 4.0% to 3.8%!
  • Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
  • Unadjusted U-6 was down from 7.7% to 7.4%!
  • Labor Force Participation remains at the highest level since 2013.
  • Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 880,000 jobs.

 

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate ChartAccording to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

 “Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent.
Notable employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

But, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 150.102 million jobs for January and then they added 15,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 150.117 million jobs for January and 150.997 million jobs for February
which is actually an increase of 895,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month and 880,000 more than current estimates for last month.

Of course, the Corona Virus scare is affecting the Stock Market as the AP news was quick to point out. So March numbers may be affected by that.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

[Read more…] about February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, employment, U-3, U-6, U3, U6, U6 minus U3, unemployment

Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet

May 5, 2017 by Tim McMahon

The news is bristling with excitement as all the major media outlets are jumping on today’s employment numbers hot off the Bureau of Labor Statistics presses. The BLS reported that the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was just 4.4% and the unadjusted broader based U-6 was just 8.1%.

In response to all this good news The New York Times said, “We’re Getting Awfully Close to Full Employment” and The Wall Street Journal trumpeted “Jobs Report: This Is What Full Employment Looks Like” so who am I to throw cold water on their parade? Well, at least I’m not the only one to have my doubts. Jared Bernstein at The Washington Post thinks that the current low inflation level is a factor that may indicate that we aren’t quite there yet. So I’m adding my own two-cents with the following chart. We regularly publish the U-6 minus U-3 chart which shows the differential between the ordinary unemployed U-3 and the bottom of the barrel unemployed U-6. By definition, in order to be at “full-employment” everyone who wants a job has to have one.  That doesn’t mean Zero unemployment because there is a bit of friction in the system and so when people change jobs they are temporarily “unemployed” so there will always be some. Historically, this was assumed to be around 3% unemployment. So as the U-3 unemployment approaches 3% the U-6 people get drawn into the market. They may not have the skills or the ambition or the whatever but now they can find a job because companies are desperate.

So by looking at the U-6 minus the U-3 we can get a very good picture of when we are nearing “full employment”. So let’s look at that chart. [Read more…] about Why the U.S. Isn’t at “Full Employment” Yet

Filed Under: Unemployment Tagged With: full employment, gallup, Labor Force, Participation Rate, U6 minus U3

Primary Sidebar

Search Site

Sponsored:

URGENT: These Stocks Stand Poised to Benefit from President Trump's Trade Wars!

As the Trump administration moves ahead with aggressive tariff policies on key imports, the mainstream media is scrambling.

This Free Report - which you can download now - reveals the names and ticker symbols of 5 Stock Poised to Benefit Most from President Trump's Tariff Wars.

Click Here to Download Your FREE Stock Report Now.

Recent Posts

  • April 2025 Employment / Unemployment Report
  • Would More Jobs Help Social Security?
  • March 2025- Employment / Unemployment Report
  • February 2025 Jobs Report
  • January 2025 BLS Employment Report

Resources

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey Monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for BLS. It provides data on the labor force, employment, unemployment, etc.
  • Capital Professional Services Providing web design and development and Internet marketing services
  • Elliott Wave University Using the Elliott Wave Principle to improve investment performance
  • Financial Trend Forecaster Featuring Moore Inflation Predictor, NYSE Rate of Change and NASDAQ Rate of change
  • InflationData.com Inflation calculators, databases, etc.
  • Intergalactic Web Designers Web design and development services
  • Your Family Finances

Articles by Category

Articles by Date

Disclaimer

At UnemploymentData.com we are not registered investment advisors and do not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance and future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.

Privacy & Terms of Use

Privacy Statement & Terms of Use

Do Not Sell My Information

Copyright © 2025 · News Pro on Capital Professional Services, LLC. All rights reserved · Log in