U6

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

March 7, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 6th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% in January to 3.5% in February. Thus returning to the previous low levels of September, November, and December after increasing slightly in January.
We are still in record low territory and that won’t change overnight. Seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment notched up 1/10^th of a percent in January and fell back the same amount in February. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remains in territory that it hasn’t seen in years…

This is better than expected results and according to @AP News it shows that “the economy was in strong shape before the coronavirus began to sweep
through the U.S. “

The average monthly wage is up almost $130 over year-ago levels so two-income families are bringing in an average of at least $250 a month more. (See employment by Sector for more info).

This month we will also look at unemployment by Education level, and reasons for unemployment.

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Unadjusted U-3 was down from 4.0% to 3.8%!
Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-6 was down from 7.7% to 7.4%!
Labor Force Participation remains at the highest level since 2013.
Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 880,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent.
Notable employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

But, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 150.102 million jobs for January and then they added 15,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 150.117 million jobs for January and 150.997 million jobs for February
which is actually an increase of 895,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month and 880,000 more than current estimates for last month.

Of course, the Corona Virus scare is affecting the Stock Market as the AP news was quick to point out. So March numbers may be affected by that.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

December Jobs Report Not “Disappointing”

January 11, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10^th.

CNBC was quick to label it “disappointing” but at 1/10^th of a percent off a 50 year low how disappointing can it really be? The unadjusted numbers were up slightly but that isn’t unusual for December and they weren’t even up by as much as they were last year. In December 2018 the unadjusted U-6 went from 7.2% to 7.5% (i.e. 0.3%). This year it went from 6.5% to 6.7% (up 0.2%). Last year the unadjusted U-3 went from 3.5% to 3.7% (up 0.2%) this year it went from 3.3% to 3.4% (up 0.1%). Last year the adjusted U-3 went from 3.7% to 3.9%. This year it went from… wait for it… 3.5% to 3.5%… what? Yes, it was unchanged. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment is exactly the same as last month (i.e. one of the best months in recorded history). What about Labor Force Participation? Unchanged at 63.2%… slightly off recent highs of 63.3% which it reached in October. The only “fly in the ointment” was actual unadjusted employment which was down slightly while adjusted Employment was still up by 145,000.

December Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-3 was up slightly from 3.3% to 3.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.5% to 6.7%
Labor Force Participation was unchanged at 63.2%.
Unadjusted Employment down slightly while adjusted Employment was up by 145,000.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent. Notable employment gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs. In 2019, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1 million, compared with a gain of 2.7 million in 2018.

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

This was not a bad jobs report!

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

March 9, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for February on March 8^th and it has the market pundits wringing their hands over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs. Optimists are blaming the government shutdown combined with the weather causing a lack of construction jobs in the Seasonally Adjusted jobs numbers.

But if job creation is only 20,000 why is Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment down from 8.8% in January to 7.7% in February? Why has the unemployment rate for Hispanics dropped to another mega low of 4.3%? And why is the unemployment rate for Women 3.6%?

The non-seasonally adjusted jobs number is up by 827,000 jobs from January to February compared to an increase of 1.237 million during the same period last year and an increase of 1.03 million from January – February 2017. So, yes the increase is considerably smaller but as we near full employment it becomes progressively harder to find new employees even if you have jobs available. The problem shifts from a lack of jobs to a lack of qualified employees.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.8% down from 4.0% in January, 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.4% in January, 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.7% down from 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.133 up from 148.201 million in January, 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
February Labor Force Participation Rate- Unchanged at 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9% highest since 2013.
101st straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment- (Household Survey) 156.949 up from 156.694 in January

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

May Unemployment Lowest Since 2000

June 2, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of May on Friday June 1^st .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is at a new low. Unemployment has been falling and has now reached levels not seen since April of 2000. Current levels are even lower than during the boom of 2006. If they drop another 1/10^th of a percent we will have to go all the way back to 1969 to find levels that low.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable. See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.8% Down from 3.9% in April and 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.6% down from 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- May 7.3% Down from 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.309 million up from 148.367 million in April and 147.369 million in March.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below only one sector is to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees except Utilities which lost -1,100 employees. The big gainers were Education and Health, Professional and business Services, Construction, Leisure and Manufacturing.

The biggest gainer was Education and Health Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 39,000+ jobs, followed by Retail and Professional Services which each gained roughly 31,000 jobs, Leisure gained 21,000 jobs and manufacturing gained another 18,000 on top of consistently high gains for the last few months. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased to $928.74.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

May 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	218,000	$928.74	126,336,000
Mining and Logging	4,000	$1,500.09	733,000
Construction	25,000	$1,174.14	7,210,000
Manufacturing	18,000	$1,097.52	12,673,000
Wholesale trade	4,200	$1,189.81	5,954,800
Retail trade	31,100	$579.70	15,970,300
Transportation and Warehousing	18,700	$940.41	5,309,300
Utilities	-1,100	$1,689.89	554,400
Information	6,000	$1,418.40	2,775,000
Financial Activities	8,000	$1,303.88	8,559,000
Professional and Business Services	31,000	$1,164.92	20,891,000
Education and Health Services	39,000	$887.70	23,563,000
Leisure and Hospitality	21,000	$413.95	16,281,000
Other Services	13,000	$772.53	5,862,000

February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

March 10, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday March 9^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of February.

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for February is unchanged for the 5th month in a row. That’s right from October through February the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%.

This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% down from 4.5% January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.6% down from 8.9% in January.
Employment 146.696 million up from 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below the only sector to the left of the zero line is Information meaning that all other sectors gained employees in February except information which lost -12,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainer was construction (bubble furthest to the right) which added 61,000 jobs, followed by Retail Trade which gained 50,300 jobs and Professional and Business Services which gained 50,000 jobs even manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs. (See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

February 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	287,000	$922.88	125,819,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,485.78	713,000
Construction	61,000	$1,158.17	7,173,000
Manufacturing	31,000	$1,100.03	12,614,000
Wholesale trade	5,800	$1,185.12	5,956,200
Retail trade	50,300	$572.55	15,926,200
Transportation and Warehousing	15,400	$940.60	5,263,400
Utilities	1,200	$1,658.82	553,400
Information	-12,000	$1,418.40	2,748,000
Financial Activities	28,000	$1,290.81	8,547,000
Professional and Business Services	50,000	$1,161.30	20,760,000
Education and Health Services	23,000	$882.75	23,466,000
Leisure and Hospitality	16,000	$410.81	16,262,000
Other Services	10,000	$768.73	5,837,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 10.1% in January to 9.5% in 2017 and from 8.9% to 8.6% in 2018.

From the table at the left we can also see that U-6 unemployment went from 9.2% in October 2016 to 7.6% in 2017.

Similarly it fell from 9.0% in November 2016 to 7.7% in 2017 and from 9.1% in December 2016 to 8.0% in 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by [Read more…] about February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

February 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

January Unemployment is almost record setting… but not for the reason you might think.

On Friday February 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of January. According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for January is unchanged for the almost record setting 4th month in a row. That’s right from October through January the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower but the interesting part is that the unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% from October through December (resulting in the adjusted rate being 4.1%) but then in January the unadjusted rate jumped to 4.5% (a 0.6% increase) and the adjusted U-3 remained the same at 4.1%. This is because typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick in unadjusted unemployment rate. But because the Seasonally Adjusted U3 was unchanged for the month the current increase in the unadjusted U-3 was actually no greater or less than normal. See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

U-6 Unemployment

Over the same period, Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment including discouraged workers, climbed steadily.

It was 7.6% in October, then 7.7% in November, then 8.0% in December, and finally 8.9% in January.

This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and had climbed to 10.1% by January 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has decreased by [Read more…] about January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

August 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

U-3 Unemployment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment and unemployment numbers for July on Friday August 4^th. The Seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was down from 4.4% in June to 4.3% in July. Unadjusted U-3 however was up from 4.5% to 4.6%. U3 is the Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.

U-6 Unemployment

U-6 unemployment is the broadest category of unemployment and includes U3 plus “discouraged workers”, plus other “marginally attached workers”, plus part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons. U-6 was unchanged from June at 8.9%.

Employment

The Commissioner of the BLS released this statement, “Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, was little changed. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000). “

However if we look at the actual employment data we get a different picture. [Read more…] about 1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???

July 8, 2016 by Tim McMahon

On Friday July 8th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their newest unemployment data for June 2016. According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate is 4.9% up from 4.7% for May. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 5.1% up from 4.5% in May.

In an interesting twist, although total non-farm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, the unemployment rate also rose to 4.9 percent from 4.7%. [Read more…] about Employment and Unemployment Rates Jump in June???