BLS

March 2022 Unemployment Not as Low as Expected

April 2, 2022 by Tim McMahon

March 2022 Unemployment Report Doesn’t Beat Expert’s Predictions

Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.1% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.6% to 7.1%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.3% to 62.4%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 149.144 million to 149. 938 million

March 2022 Unemployment report:

Although MSNBC is touting it as a win, they admit that experts predicted 490,000 new jobs, but according to the BLS, we only got 431,000, so they could have just as easily spun this as a negative report. Instead, MSNBC gushes about the “new jobs” but then goes on to say, “the U.S. economy has now gained back roughly 93 percent of its pandemic job losses”.

As we’ve consistently pointed out, we are still below peak pre-covid employment levels. Although MSNBC says, “So far in 2022, the economy has created 1.69 million jobs”… we’re still below December 2021 levels… hmm I guess it depends on how you look at it. Unlike what you’d expect from a pandemic… since Covid started the U.S. population is up by 3.8 million, so we need to have more jobs just to be equal. In other words, population inflation does to jobs what monetary inflation does to the cost of living.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6 percent. Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Job growth averaged 562,000 per month in the first quarter of 2022, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021. However, Employment is down by 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent, from its February 2020 level before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported Employment of 148.964 million for February, which they adjusted to 149.144 million. So 18,000 jobs appeared for February. They are saying 149.938 million jobs for March, which is an increase of 974,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 794,000 based on their updated numbers.

February Employment / Unemployment Report

March 4, 2022 by Tim McMahon

February 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.0% to 3.8%
Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.4% to 4.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.9% to 7.6%
Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% 62.3%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 147. 510 million to 148. 964 million

February 2022 Unemployment report:

AP says: Strong Job Growth Points to COVID’s Fading Grip on Economy “Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July, the Labor Department reported Friday.”

CNBC says: U.S. unemployment rate falls in February, but ticks up for Black women “The unemployment rate for Black women ticked up to 6.1% in February from 5.8% in the previous month.”

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent. Employment growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction. Employment is down by 2.1 million, or 1.4 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.

In February, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+179,000) with job gains in food services and drinking places (+124,000) and accommodation (+28,000). “

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 147.525 million for January which they adjusted to 147.510 million. So 15,000 jobs disappeared for January. But they are reporting 148.964 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 1,439,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,454,000 based on their updated numbers.

January 2022 Unemployment Up not DOWN as Reported

February 5, 2022 by Tim McMahon

January 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adjusted U-3 was UP from 3.9% to 4.0%
Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.7% to 4.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 7.2% to 7.9%
Labor Force Participation Up from 61.9% 62.2%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 150.349 million to 147. 525 million

January 2022 Unemployment report: Establishment news media chose to put a positive spin on this month’s Jobs report focusing on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 467,000 jobs number. U.S. News says, US Economy Defies Omicron and Adds 467,000 Jobs in January. Long-time readers of this site will remember that this is a Seasonally Adjusted number based on the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”. As we explain below, more people were NOT employed in January than in December all that the adjusted number indicates is that fewer people lost their jobs in January than in a typical January. In actuality, there were 2.6 million fewer employed in January 2022 than in December 2021 and even the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate INCREASED from 3.9% to 4.0% while UNADJUSTED unemployment increased even more.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment has increased by 19.1 million since April 2020 but is down by 2.9 million, or 1.9 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020. Monthly job growth averaged 555,000 in 2021.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.170 million for December which they adjusted to 150.349 million. For January they are reporting 147.525 million.
which is actually a decrease of 2,645,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 2,824,000 based on their updated numbers. Typically January loses a significant number of jobs due to post-holiday layoffs so January employment decreases are not that unusual. But if we look at the adjusted numbers we see that even the seasonally adjusted unemployment was up suggesting that the layoff was a bit worse than usual.

December Job Growth Fails to Meet Expectations… Again

January 8, 2022 by Tim McMahon

December 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.9% to 3.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.2% to 3.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.4% to 7.2%
Labor Force Participation Unchanged at 61.9%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.098 million to 150.170 million

Job growth in December failed to meet expectations for the 2nd month in a row. Economists had predicted more than 400,000 jobs would be added in the month. Instead, according to the BLS, the U.S. economy added less than half that amount.

On a positive note, Seasonally adjusted unemployment fell from 4.2% to 3.9%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 199,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9 percent. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. In 2021, job growth averaged 537,000 per month. Employment has increased by 18.8 million since April 2020 but is down by 3.6 million, or 2.3 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 150.004 million for November, which they adjusted to 150.098 million. For December, they are reporting 150.170 million.
This is an increase of 166,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 72,000 based on their updated numbers.

Although Employment is 6.568 million Above Year-Ago Levels…

Employment numbers are still about 800,000 short of February 2020 numbers, but the Civilian Population has increased by about 2.6 MILLION people since then.

November Jobs Up But…

December 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

November 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.3% to 3.9%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.7% to 7.4%
Labor Force Participation Up 61.6% to 61.8%
Unadjusted employment rose from 149.226 million to 150.004 million

Although November’s job numbers are generally an improvement over October, Bloomberg called them”weird” and “the smallest jobs gain this year”. This jobs report is so weird because retail employment is DOWN by -20,400 in a month, known for increased retail employment. Market commentators are also blaming the Jobs report for Friday’s market drop.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 149.217 million for October, which they adjusted to 149.226 million. For November, they are reporting 150.004 million,
which is an increase of 787,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 778,000 based on their updated numbers.

October 2021 Unemployment Down as Expected

November 6, 2021 by Tim McMahon

October 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.8% to 4.6%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.1% to 7.7%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.6%
Unadjusted employment rose from 147.659 million to 149.217 million

These numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), in line with market expectations. Typically October and November are up months for employment with Seasonal hiring for the Holidays.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent.
Job growth was widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing,
and in transportation and warehousing. Employment declined in public education over the month.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 147.682 for September which they adjusted to 147.659 million. For October they are currently saying employment is 149.217 million.
which is actually an increase of 1,535,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,558,000 based on their updated numbers.

September Unemployment Disappointing

October 9, 2021 by Tim McMahon

September nonfarm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.3% to 4.6%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.2% to 4.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 8.9% to 8.1%
Labor Force Participation Down from 61.7% to 61.6%
Unadjusted employment rose from 147.028 million to 147.682 million

Although these numbers are generally an improvement over last month (except Labor Force Participation), the market expected better. Bloomberg was projecting jobs growth of roughly 2.5x what we actually got.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent.
Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.
Employment declined in public education over the month.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 146.856 for August, which they adjusted to 147.028 million. For September, they are currently saying employment is 147.682 million.
This is an increase of 826,000 jobs based on their original estimates. Or an increase of 654,000 based on their updated numbers.

However, the market considers this a “much softer-than-expected September nonfarm payroll report” since Bloomberg was projecting 500,000 new jobs instead of the CPS Seasonally Adjusted 194,000.

The labor force participation rate dipped to 61.6% from August’s 61.7% rate, compared to forecasts of an increase to 61.8%.

August Unemployment Improves as Pandemic Benefits Expire

September 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment / unemployment report for August.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.7% to 5.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.4% to 5.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 9.6% to 8.9%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 146.544 million to 146.856 million

The Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which extends unemployment benefits by up to 24 weeks for those who have exhausted regular unemployment aid, and the $300 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits, are due to expire on September 6. This may be the motivation some unemployed individuals needed to get back to work. Many have complained that the government assistance was paying certain people at the lower end of the payscale more to stay home than they could earn by going to work.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.

But looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 146.470 for July which they adjusted to 146.544 million. For August they are currently saying employment is 146.856 million which is actually an increase of 386,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 312,000 based on their updated numbers.

Unemployment Falls in July

August 7, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the August 6^th Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for July.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.1% to 5.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.9% to 5.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 10.1% to 9.6%
Labor Force Participation UP from 61.6% to 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 146.603 million to 146.470 million

June Employment and Unemployment Both Up

July 3, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for June released on July 2^nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was UP from 5.5% to 6.1%
Adjusted U-3 was UP from 5.8% to 5.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was UP from 9.7% to 10.1%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 145.385 million to 146.517 million