Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

March Employment Tops 147 Million

April 7, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of March on Friday April 6^th .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is unchanged for the 6^th month in a row. So from October through March the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This month the unadjusted U-3 was also 4.1%.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable. See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.4% February.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.1% down from 8.6% in February.
Employment 147,332 million up from 146.667 million in February and 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below three sectors are to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees in March except Construction which lost -15,000 employees, Retail which lost -4,400 employees, and “Other Services” which lost -1,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainer was Professional and Business Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 33,000 jobs, followed by Education and Health Services which gained 25,000 jobs and Manufacturing which gained 22,000 jobs on top of last months 31,000 manufacturing jobs gained. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased from $922.88 to $925.29.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

March 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	102,000	$925.29	125,904,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,501.44	722,000
Construction	-15,000	$1,153.66	7,150,000
Manufacturing	22,000	$1,098.57	12,632,000
Wholesale trade	11,400	$1,178.97	5,967,300
Retail trade	-4,400	$576.58	15,915,900
Transportation and Warehousing	9,800	$942.35	5,279,300
Utilities	4,000	$1,674.74	559,000
Information	2,000	$1,410.43	2,760,000
Financial Activities	2,000	$1,297.20	8,546,000
Professional and Business Services	33,000	$1,162.42	20,803,000
Education and Health Services	25,000	$882.38	23,483,000
Leisure and Hospitality	5,000	$412.64	16,256,000
Other Services	-1,000	$770.31	5,830,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 8.9% in January to 8.6% in February and fell further to 8.1% in March.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by 665,000 jobs in March. The BLS Commissioner said:“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000)…

Over the month, job gains occurred in manufacturing, health care, and mining… Manufacturing employment rose by 22,000… Employment in health care increased by 22,000 in March and has grown by 304,000 over the year…. Mining employment rose by 9,000… Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in March (+33,000). Over the year, employment in the industry has increased by 502,000, with gains distributed across most of the component industries.” [Read more…] about March Employment Tops 147 Million

California at 4.3% has Lowest Unemployment Since 1976

March 27, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent unemployment data broken down by state (released in March for the month of February), Hawaii had the lowest unemployment at 2.1% followed by North Dakota and New Hampshire at 2.6%. Vermont and Nebraska were also at 2.8%.

The rates in California (4.3%), Maine (2.9%), Mississippi (4.5%), and Wisconsin (2.9%) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.)

Although not technically a state, Puerto Rico had the highest jobless rate at 10.6% followed by Alaska at 7.3% while New Mexico had 5.8%, the District of Columbia had 5.7% and West Virginia had 5.4%.

The following table lists the [Read more…] about California at 4.3% has Lowest Unemployment Since 1976

5 Career Choices That Can Lead to Financial Stability

March 19, 2018 by Tim McMahon

When looking for a career to pursue, finding one that can provide you with a comfortable living should at least be part of your consideration. For those that are looking for a job that pays well, here are five different career choices and paths that could help you achieve financial stability.

Medical Field

While the medical field has been impacted by changes in the insurance agency and a variety of other factors, it still provides great earning potential. For those that are willing to put in the work that comes with medical school and residency, becoming a physician or surgeon can be a great option. Physicians routinely earn over $200,000 per year and surgeons earn well over $300,000 per year. Other healthcare occupations that you might consider are: Athletic Trainers $45,630/yr and only require a Bachelor’s Degree. Dental Hygienists $72,910/yr Associates Degree, Diagnostic Medical Sonographers $64,280/yr. Associates Degree, Dietitians and Nutritionists $58,920/yr. Bachelor’s degree, Occupational Therapists $81,910/yr. Master’s degree. See the Bureau of Labor Statistics full list of Medical/Healthcare Professions.

Accounting

Another career path that could provide you with [Read more…] about 5 Career Choices That Can Lead to Financial Stability

February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

March 10, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday March 9^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of February.

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for February is unchanged for the 5th month in a row. That’s right from October through February the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%.

This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% down from 4.5% January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.6% down from 8.9% in January.
Employment 146.696 million up from 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below the only sector to the left of the zero line is Information meaning that all other sectors gained employees in February except information which lost -12,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainer was construction (bubble furthest to the right) which added 61,000 jobs, followed by Retail Trade which gained 50,300 jobs and Professional and Business Services which gained 50,000 jobs even manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs. (See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

February 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	287,000	$922.88	125,819,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,485.78	713,000
Construction	61,000	$1,158.17	7,173,000
Manufacturing	31,000	$1,100.03	12,614,000
Wholesale trade	5,800	$1,185.12	5,956,200
Retail trade	50,300	$572.55	15,926,200
Transportation and Warehousing	15,400	$940.60	5,263,400
Utilities	1,200	$1,658.82	553,400
Information	-12,000	$1,418.40	2,748,000
Financial Activities	28,000	$1,290.81	8,547,000
Professional and Business Services	50,000	$1,161.30	20,760,000
Education and Health Services	23,000	$882.75	23,466,000
Leisure and Hospitality	16,000	$410.81	16,262,000
Other Services	10,000	$768.73	5,837,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 10.1% in January to 9.5% in 2017 and from 8.9% to 8.6% in 2018.

From the table at the left we can also see that U-6 unemployment went from 9.2% in October 2016 to 7.6% in 2017.

Similarly it fell from 9.0% in November 2016 to 7.7% in 2017 and from 9.1% in December 2016 to 8.0% in 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by [Read more…] about February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

Work Got You Down? 4 Steps to Making a Career Change

February 20, 2018 by Tim McMahon

If you are not enjoying the work you do, it’s harder to be productive as the minutes drag by… feeling like hours. Are you miserable in your current profession and want a change? Perhaps you want to earn more money or move your career to the next level. A career change might sound daunting, but in the long run can be worth it. These four steps will get you started on the path to a career change.

Research Possible Careers

Some people already have a new career in mind. It might be something they have always wanted to do or related to a field that has interested them for years. However, most people still need to narrow down their list to just one. Research is vital when considering a new career because you want to make sure you are choosing the right one. One of the best places to research new career options is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Look up how many people work in the profession, whether the industry is going to grow or shrink, and even the job turnover rate.

Job Shadowing or Information Gathering

Once you have done your proper research, it is important to learn as much about the career field as possible. You can arrange to interview those you already know work in the industry, or you can even reach out to people who have worked in it before. Social media is a great way to meet possible interviewees. You might even be able to [Read more…] about Work Got You Down? 4 Steps to Making a Career Change

Hard Day’s Work: 4 Ways to Prepare for Working a Construction Job

February 7, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Working a construction job is a great way to apply your skills, stay fit, and enjoy a solid income. But it can also be dangerous if you aren’t properly prepared. Here are a few easy preparations, so you can be sure that the time you give to your trade will be safe, worthwhile and effective.

Have the Right Gear

A construction site offers a unique set of physical characteristics that require the right gear to effectively accommodate. For you, this may mean a pair of steel-toed boots to protect your feet, a hard hat to protect your head, or rain gear to ensure you stay dry and comfortable in case it starts raining. An interesting quote from Ben’s Cleaner Sales says “When your job requires you and your employees to work with pressure washers or outside during the rain, you want quality rain equipment to keep you dry. When you are dry and comfortable, you are more productive… Plus, most of our rain gear is brightly colored and equipped with reflective stripes for safety.” So it is important to remember that when the weather is bad visibility is also lower, so the addition of bright colors and reflective materials can also improve your safety.

You must keep in mind that you may be exposed to the elements up to your entire workday, so you need to dress to ensure you remain comfortable if that ends up being the case. If it’s cold, dress in layers so you can shed layers as you heat up while performing work. If it’s warm, wear clothing that will wick sweat away from your body so you don’t end up with wet, uncomfortable clothes all day. Two critical pieces of personal equipment you should have are construction boots and a reflective vest. Simply by wearing these to a construction site you show the job foreman that you are serious and ready to work.

Study up

If this is your first time working in the construction industry, being able to understand what’s being asked from you, right from the start, will help you reach greater heights in the industry. Know specific terminology that is used in your field, and understand how to use the tools of your specific trade. Two certifications that you can easily get are your OSHA 10 certification and your “Flagman” certification as you’ll see in this video these two certifications will take you a total of 14 hours to get and will go a long way toward getting your foot in the door of the construction industry.

Over time you will certainly improve in all these areas through daily exposure and hands-on learning, but if you don’t know much when you show up to a job site, the learning curve is going to be difficult and potentially dangerous.

Get Enough Sleep

Since your safety and the safety of others on the job site depend on [Read more…] about Hard Day’s Work: 4 Ways to Prepare for Working a Construction Job

January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

February 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

January Unemployment is almost record setting… but not for the reason you might think.

On Friday February 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of January. According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for January is unchanged for the almost record setting 4th month in a row. That’s right from October through January the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower but the interesting part is that the unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% from October through December (resulting in the adjusted rate being 4.1%) but then in January the unadjusted rate jumped to 4.5% (a 0.6% increase) and the adjusted U-3 remained the same at 4.1%. This is because typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick in unadjusted unemployment rate. But because the Seasonally Adjusted U3 was unchanged for the month the current increase in the unadjusted U-3 was actually no greater or less than normal. See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

U-6 Unemployment

Over the same period, Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment including discouraged workers, climbed steadily.

It was 7.6% in October, then 7.7% in November, then 8.0% in December, and finally 8.9% in January.

This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and had climbed to 10.1% by January 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has decreased by [Read more…] about January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

“Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”…

January 24, 2018 by Tim McMahon

When Jaws 2 came out in 1978 the tagline was “Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”… well today I’d like to change that to say “Just when you thought it was safe to work at a desk” and look at 4 common injuries due to working at a desk. ~Tim McMahon, editor

Know the Risks! 4 Common Injuries Your Desk Job Could Give You

In recent years, more and more desk jobs have been popping up. Whether it be working in an office-type environment, or in a call center, office jobs seem to be the future. What many don’t realize, however, is that the number of injuries a desk job can cause. In order to educate you on the potential injuries that a desk job can give you, here’s a compiled a list of things to consider:

Carpal Tunnel Syndrome

The first, and most obvious, injury is carpal tunnel syndrome. If your office job involves a lot of typing, you can easily develop carpal tunnel over time—an unpleasant numbness caused by a pinched nerve. Many people might not realize it, but according to ninds.gov, carpal tunnel syndrome is more than 3 times as common in data-entry personnel.

In order to prevent carpal tunnel syndrome in your office job, ensure your posture is good and maintained throughout the day. You should also take occasional rests from typing when possible.

Eye Strain

For those working an office job with a computer, [Read more…] about “Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”…

Unemployment By State

January 18, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent data broken down by state (released in December for the month of November), Hawaii had the lowest unemployment at 2.0% followed by several Western States including North Dakota (2.6%), Nebraska (2.7%), Colorado, Idaho and Iowa all at 2.9%. Somehow New Hampshire managed to also be among the lowest also at 2.7% with Vermont at 2.9%.

Although California has been touted as having the fastest growing labor force it ranked number 35 in unemployment rates with unemployment at 4.6% well below the national average of 4.1%.

The following table lists the [Read more…] about Unemployment By State

How Companies Can Monitor and Anticipate Financial Trends

January 10, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Current and future financial trends play a massive role in the success or failure of businesses. Unless a company can accurately predict financial trends, it can be difficult to manage many aspects of a company, from sales to supplier sourcing. Imagine a company embarking on a new adventure to rehab and flip houses in 2008. The banking crisis that ensued would have guaranteed their failure. On the other hand it might have been a good time to open a business to help retrain laid-off workers for new positions. The following guide explores some of the methods that companies use to monitor and anticipate financial trends.

Internal Analysts

Large companies often have analysts that monitor a variety of market conditions. [Read more…] about How Companies Can Monitor and Anticipate Financial Trends