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Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

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Unemployment 3.8%The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for February on March 8th and it has the market pundits wringing their hands over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs. Optimists are blaming the government shutdown combined with the weather causing a lack of construction jobs in the Seasonally Adjusted jobs numbers.

But if job creation is only 20,000 why is Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment down from 8.8% in January to 7.7% in February? Why has the unemployment rate for Hispanics dropped to another mega low of 4.3%? And why is the unemployment rate for Women 3.6%?

The non-seasonally adjusted jobs number is up by 827,000 jobs from January to February compared to an increase of 1.237 million during the same period last year and an increase of 1.03 million from January – February 2017.  So, yes the increase is considerably smaller but as we near full employment it becomes progressively harder to find new employees even if you have jobs available. The problem shifts from a lack of jobs to a lack of qualified employees.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.8% down from 4.0% in January, 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  4.1% down from 4.4% in January, 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  7.7% down from 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
  • Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.133 up from 148.201 million in January, 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
  • February Labor Force Participation Rate- Unchanged at 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9% highest since 2013.  
  • 101st straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment- (Household Survey) 156.949 up from 156.694 in January

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

Mowing Grass to Earn Green: Things to Consider Before Starting a Lawn Care Business

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Lawn care can be a profitable entrepreneurial opportunity for those who are willing to work hard and consistently network for more clients. Just like any other kind of business, though, there are a few factors and challenges to consider before heading out to buy equipment. Here are a few things to consider before starting a lawn care business.

Managing Startup Costs

Perhaps the most prohibitive aspect of launching a businesses in this industry is relatively high initial startup costs. It’s possible to start with minimal equipment, but this limits the number and type of projects you can work on. Starting a proper lawn care company requires an arsenal of equipment, including chemicals, tools, and vehicles. This is particularly challenging, as it can take a few years before earnings rise to a significant margin over costs.

Demanding Work Environment

Anyone working in lawn care spends a lot of time outdoors on job sites. Even owners and supervisors are often doing as much physical work as their employees as the company gets off the ground. That’s why you should consider talking to a personal physician to assess your personal fitness and physical health before starting a physically-demanding business. You don’t want to invest in your business only to discover your health won’t allow you to continue with it. But if you enjoy being outdoors a lot this could be a great option for you. [Read more…] about Mowing Grass to Earn Green: Things to Consider Before Starting a Lawn Care Business

Bring Ideas to Life! 3 Tips for Entrepreneurs

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Starting your own business means more freedom, but it can take a while to get your ideas off the ground. Figuring out how to transition from a career to a successful entrepreneur takes time, research and, most of all, patience. If you’re considering taking the leap and starting your own business, consider these three tips to help formulate your ideas and turn your dreams into plans.

Choose a Niche You’re Passionate About

The first business you launch doesn’t have to be your life’s mission, but it should still reflect some of your values and interests. Without any genuine personal investment, you’ll fail to provide the level of detail required to succeed. When you don’t have a passion for what you’re selling and are only in it for the money, you will struggle to find the motivation and perseverance necessary to succeed as an entrepreneur.

Consider what types of stores you like to shop at. How could they improve? Your primary goal as a budding entrepreneur is to find your niche and figure out something new you can deliver. It’s about adding and refining value, not creating something entirely unheard of.

Learn From the Competition

A huge beginner’s business mistake is [Read more…] about Bring Ideas to Life! 3 Tips for Entrepreneurs

Like to Be on the Move? 4 High-Paying Transportation Careers

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If sitting behind a desk all day isn’t your thing, a career in transportation may be the perfect fit. There are many transportation career options that allow the freedom to be on the move without having to be stuck in an office. Any of these four high-paying jobs in transportation could be your ideal career.

Pilot

As a pilot, you’ll be able to travel the open skies while earning a respectable living. You can choose to fly commercial, private, or cargo airplanes to national and/or international locations. In addition to undergoing training at an accredited school, you’ll need to obtain a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) license to start working. According to CareerBuilder, commercial pilots make $40.43 an hour on average, and yearly earnings can vary depending on the number of hours that are worked but median works out to about $78,000/yr. There are also Airline pilots who have the added responsibility of passenger safety so they earn significantly more. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median annual wage for airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers is $137,330.

Helmsman

If a career on the high seas sounds exciting, you’ll likely enjoy working as a helmsman. You’ll be the captain of a ship as you navigate a commercial vessel through seas or rivers. There is always the option of working aboard a cruise ship, or you can choose to navigate freight vessels. You’ll need to undergo extensive training to learn how to operate a boat safely and adhere to passenger safety standards to be successful in this career. Salary ranges in this field often vary, but many positions pay upwards of $50,000 a year.

[Read more…] about Like to Be on the Move? 4 High-Paying Transportation Careers

January Employment the Good and Bad

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for January on February 1st. “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 is  4.0% up from  3.9% in December. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it stayed at 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It bounced between 3.8% and 4.0% from April through August 2018 before falling to 3.7% in September – November. So unemployment is currently at the same level as it was from April through August 2018.

 

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   4.0% up from 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  8.8% up from 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
  • Unadjusted Employment- 148.201 million down from 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
  • January Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9%.  
  • 100th straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment

As I have been saying for a while [Read more…] about January Employment the Good and Bad

Joining the Workforce: 9 Licenses and Certifications that Don’t Require a College Degree

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Do you need a college degree to get a good job?

It’s a question many of us have pondered at some point. Although there are many benefits of going to college, it isn’t your only option when it comes to finding a well-paying, rewarding career. Below we’ll count down nine positions that may require a license or certification but that don’t require a 4 year degree.

Number 9- Cosmetologist

If you have a passion for beauty, why not consider a career as a cosmetologist? To begin working, you’ll have to be a high school graduate and complete a state-licensed cosmetology program. You’ll have various professional personal care services experiences throughout the program, with opportunities to learn how to do things like cut hair, give manicures and apply makeup professionally. Once you graduate, you can apply to salons with your specific preferences and work in any area of cosmetology you wish to specialize in. Cosmetologists make an average of $24,900/yr.

Number 8- Warehouse Certifications

As companies continue to become more and more available and accessible to people worldwide, forklift and heavy machinery use is growing along with it. Getting a forklift license or heavy vehicle license could open doors to you and your job search. Generally, these courses are cost effective and can be earned in a short amount of time. Licenses like these can help you get jobs with higher pay and pave the way to further career development. The BLS does not list forklift operators separately but instead lumps them together as Material moving machine operators and says “Material moving machine operators use machinery to transport various objects. Some operators move construction materials around building sites or excavate earth from a mine. Others move goods around a warehouse or onto container ships.” They earn an average of  $34,830 per year.
[Read more…] about Joining the Workforce: 9 Licenses and Certifications that Don’t Require a College Degree

College Not for You? 4 Promising Alternatives to Earning a Four-Year Degree

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For generations, parents have scrimped and sacrificed to provide a college education for their kids believing that it was the only way for them to get ahead. Yet the last few years have seen a much greater understanding that college isn’t for everybody, and that there are other options out there that will still produce the income and security that was once only considered possible with a college degree. There are plenty of alternatives to four years of college, and many of them are a proven better investment than a degree.

A Military Career

It seems that America is still adjusting to a post-draft military. [Read more…] about College Not for You? 4 Promising Alternatives to Earning a Four-Year Degree

Unique Position: 4 Career Options for Adventurous Individuals

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If you enjoy being adventurous and the idea of being stuck in an office day-in and day-out makes you cringe, you can turn your passion for adventure into a career. There are many jobs that are suited for adventure lovers, and certain positions are known to pay hefty salaries and make great long-term careers. Here are four career options that are ideal for adventurous individuals.

Photojournalist

Taking pictures is a hobby for most people, but you can make it a career if you have the right skills and equipment. Many newspapers, magazines and online publications rely on photojournalists to capture images of newsworthy events. You can also choose to specialize in fashion, sports or entertainment photojournalism. Some new organizations and media outlets hire photojournalists as permanent staff members, but there is also the option of working as a freelancer. If you work as a permanent staff member for someone else, your photography equipment may be provided, but you’ll need to purchase your own if you choose to freelance.

https://youtu.be/O-3HiLyjUy8?t=1

Tour Guide

You can teach others about the history, culture and other interesting aspects of certain places by becoming a tour guide. You can lead tours around your city or town or take tour groups to other destinations in the country or international locations. Being an adventure tour guide is another option and will allow you to take tourists through vast wilderness areas, on mountain hikes or to other regions that are off the beaten path. Tour guides usually don’t need to fulfill any formal education requirements but should be highly knowledgeable in their tour specialties. [Read more…] about Unique Position: 4 Career Options for Adventurous Individuals

December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for December on January 4th and some are calling it a “monster” jobs report causing the DOW to gain almost 747 points (3.29%). The reason for this is that the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs number was up 312,000 while the consensus was expecting an increase of only 176,000.

However all is not roses in employment land. There are a few thorns in the jobs report. Both Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were actually up and Unadjusted Employment was down.

Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.7% in November. Unadjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.5% in November. Unadjusted U-6 was also up from 7.2% in November to 7.5% in December. Unadjusted Employment- 151.190 million down from 151.244 million in November. All of this sounds Bad! The major factor that the market has latched onto in this report is the Labor Force Participation Rate which has bounced above 63% for the first time since 2014. See Labor Force Participation below for more.

As I have been saying for a while typically unemployment doesn’t stay below 4% for very long. As we can see from the chart below the dip in 2006-7 didn’t even get below 4%. The 2000 dip only spent a couple of months below 4%. The 1960, 1973, ’79 and ’89 dips didn’t get below 4% at all.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate

The three major exceptions are: [Read more…] about December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

Unemployment and Employment Charts

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  • Unemployment Rate Chart – The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 1948 to the present is one of the most watched statistics. Where is it now and should you trust it?
  • Current U-6 Unemployment Rate– Many people consider the U-6 the “real” unemployment rate. See where it is now.
  • Current Employment Data – How many jobs are there actually? This chart shows Employment since Jan 2000 and what the current trend is.
  • Historical Employment Data Chart– How Many People Are Actually Employed? This chart shows the actual employment rate without all the mumbo-jumbo. It gives a clear picture of  the employment level in the United States from 1939 to the Present. When employment is rising the economy is growing. When the employment rate levels off or declines times are not so good. Take a look and see how employment rates correspond to recessions over time.
  • Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart When looking at employment vs. unemployment you would think that they are two sides of the same coin but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually uses two entirely different surveys to calculate them. Looking at both on the same chart we can see some strange anomalies.
  • Misery Index– Created by economist Arthur Okun to help gauge the level of misery the average person is suffering. It is a combination of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate.
  • Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate– Often it appears that the Seasonally Adjusted numbers are going one way, while the unadjusted numbers are going in the opposite direction. Here is how it looks in chart form.
  • Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate in Table form– If you want to see the actual numbers.
  • Is the Government Fudging Unemployment Numbers? Now there is an alternative measurement. We can also see a discrepancy in the Government’s own numbers by looking at the Employment vs. UnEmployment rate.
  • U-6 is the broadest measure of unemployment and includes all classes of Unemployed plus those ”marginally attached” and/or part-time for economic reasons. See What is the U-6 Unemployment Rate? for more details of all the “U” classifications.
  • What is the “Real” Unemployment Rate? Many economists believe that the popularly quoted Unemployment Rate understates the real unemployment rate because it fails to include workers who would like to work but have given up looking because they don’t think there are any jobs available for them.
  • What is the Labor Force Participation Rate? You might think that the Labor Force Participation Rate [LFPR] would mean the percentage of the population that is working but it doesn’t mean that at all. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the “Labor Force” is made up of both employed and unemployed people.  Unemployed people are defined as those who are actively looking for work. Once you stop looking (i.e discouraged workers) you are no longer in the official labor force.