Tim McMahon, Editor of UnemploymentData.com

My grandfather lived through the Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany--to say he was an original “gold bug” would be an understatement. I began reading his “hard money” newsletters at the age of 16 and the dividends from gold stocks helped put me through college. I began publishing the Financial Trend Forecaster paper newsletter in 1995 upon the death of James Moore editor of Your Window into the Future and the creator of the Moore Inflation Predictor©. FTF specializes in trends in the stock market, gold, inflation and bonds. In January of 2003, I began publishing InflationData.com to specialize in all forms of information about the nature of Inflation. In 2009, we added Elliott Wave University to help teach you the principles of Elliott Wave analysis. In January 2013, we began publishing OptioMoney. Connect with Tim on Google+.

About Tim McMahon

Work by editor and author, Tim McMahon, has been featured in Bloomberg, CBS News, Wall Street Journal, Christian Science Monitor, Forbes, Washington Post, Drudge Report, The Atlantic, Business Insider, American Thinker, Lew Rockwell, Huffington Post, Rolling Stone, Oakland Press, Free Republic, Education World, Realty Trac, Reason, Coin News, and Council for Economic Education. Connect with Tim on Google+

March Employment Report for February 2026

March 7, 2026 by Tim McMahon Leave a Comment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its February
employment / unemployment report on March 6^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 4.3%
Unadjusted U-3 was 4.7%
Unadjusted U-6 was 8.3%
Labor Force Participation was 62.0%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.723 million to 157.286 million
30,000 of the Job losses are temporary due to a strike
ADP is reporting 63,000 Jobs added in February, saying “Hiring jumped in February, delivering the best showing for job gains since November 2025″
Next Update: April 3rd, 2026

Summary:

The BLS adjusted many of its numbers this month. According to the BLS “January 2026 estimates were revised to incorporate updated population controls.” January’s UnAdjusted U-6 was increased from 8.7% to 8.8%, UnAdjusted U3 was increased from 4.6% to 4.7%, but the Seasonally Adjusted U3 remained the same at 4.3%. The changes were based on the adjustment of the Civilian population from 274.982 million to 274.676 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down… Both the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.6 million, changed little in February.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs,” and there was a major strike of Healthcare workers in California and Hawaii that accounted for 30,000 of those lost jobs, which will be back shortly.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 156.714 million for January, which they adjusted slightly to 156.723 million this month.

They are currently reporting 157.286 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 572,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was originally 62.5% in January, but January’s numbers were adjusted down to 62.1% this month. February is said to be 62.0%.

AI Is an Easy Scapegoat for Layoffs

Several major companies across tech, finance, logistics, and consulting have publicly cited AI or “AI-driven efficiencies” as justification for layoffs. The most explicit examples include Block, Amazon, Salesforce, Accenture, and dozens more identified in aggregated reports. Some CEOs and analysts argue many firms are using AI as a scapegoat for deeper business problems.

Block cut ~40% of its workforce (~4,000 jobs). CEO Jack Dorsey said AI “enables a significantly smaller team to do more and do it better.” But they were really inefficient to start with.

Amazon blamed AI for a 14,000-job reduction. Meta cited AI investments while cutting jobs; critics say the real cause was overexpansion. Google said layoffs linked to “AI-driven restructuring,” though OpenAI’s Sam Altman says AI is not the real driver. According to CNBC, many firms “significantly overhired” and are now using AI as a public-facing justification for layoffs.

Bottom line: Although AI is enabling some productivity gains and role consolidation, especially in customer support, basic coding, content production, and back-office workflows. But, announced “AI-related layoffs” are still a small share of total layoffs, and Macro productivity data doesn’t yet show a clear, AI-driven step-change. Many firms appear to be using AI as an excuse to impress investors, signal “modernization,” or cover overhiring and weak demand rather than reporting actual savings.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank (“ECB”) contradicted the AI job loss narrative by saying:
“Companies that make significant use of AI are about 4% more likely to take on additional staff. In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on average, to hire rather than fire. Much the same can be said of investment in AI: firms that invest in AI are nearly 2% more likely to hire additional staff than those that don’t.”

February Employment Report for January 2026

February 12, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its delayed January
employment / unemployment report on February 11^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% in January
Unadjusted U3- 4.6% up from 4.1% in December
Unadjusted U6- 8.7% up from 8.2% in December
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5%
Employment- 156.714 million in January
December Adjusted Employment #: 159.448 million
Originally Released Employment- 160.448 million in December
Average BLS January Adjustment since 2000: -2.8 million
Next data release March 6, 2026

Summary:

Every February, the BLS adjusts its employment numbers. The average adjustment since 2000 has been a reduction of -2.8 million previously reported jobs. This year was no exception with a reduction of -3.7 million based on the originally released numbers.

Here is the BLS Commissioner’s explanation:
“In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data released today have been benchmarked to reflect comprehensive counts of payroll jobs for March 2025. These counts are derived principally from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which counts jobs covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax system. The benchmark process results in revisions to not seasonally adjusted data from April 2024 forward. Seasonally adjusted data from January 2021 forward are subject to revision. In addition, data for some series prior to 2021, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, incorporate other revisions.”

Despite the massive annual adjustment in employment, and the rise of Unadjusted U3 from 4.1% to 4.6% the Commissioner reported:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.4 million, changed little in January. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in January. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), and people who are White (3.7 percent), Black (7.2 percent), Asian (4.1 percent), or Hispanic (4.7 percent) showed little change over the month.”

As always, the Commissioner is talking about adjusted “Household Survey” numbers. Establishment Survey numbers tell a different story. Typically, January is one of the highest unemployment months, which explains the large differential between the adjusted and unadjusted numbers.

Unemployment Report for December 2025

January 10, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report
for December on January 9^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.4% in December
Unadjusted U3- 4.1% down from 4.3% in November
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% down from 8.4% in November
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4%
Employment- 160.448 million in December
Employment- 160.640 million in November
Next data release February 6, 2026

Summary:

Despite Seasonally Adjusted BLS statements, if we look at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, Total Employed decreased in December, but Unadjusted and Adjusted Unemployment also decreased. Labor Force Participation was also down slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs…

Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)… Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. “

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 160.652 million for November,
which they adjusted slightly to 160.640 million jobs for November.

They are currently reporting 160.448 million jobs for December, which is actually a decrease of -204,000 jobs based on their original numbers.

The LFPR was down from 62.5% in November to 62.4% in December. [Read more…] about Unemployment Report for December 2025

Unemployment Report for Nov. 2025

December 17, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its delayed employment / unemployment report for November
on December 16^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.6% Up from 4.4% in September
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 8.4% Up from 7.7% in September
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5% Up from 62.4%
Employment- 160.411 million in October
Employment- 160.652 million in November
Next data release- January 9, 2026
October Unemployment Data not available due to gov’t shutdown

Summary:

Although unemployment information for October is not available Employmentdata was still collected. Total Employed increased in both October and November. Unadjusted Unemployment was 4.3% in both September and November, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased in November.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while the federal government continued to lose jobs…

Federal government employment continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 159.732 million for September.
They are currently reporting 160.411 million jobs for October and 160.652 million for November, which is actually an increase of 241,000 jobs from October to November. The LFPR was up from 62.4% in September to 62.5% in November.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.

Delayed September 2025 Unemployment Report Released

November 20, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on November 20^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Delayed Due to Government Shut Down
Last Available BLS Data (for September)
Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.4% Up from 4.3%
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% Down from 4.5% in August
Unadjusted U6- 7.7% Down from 8.2% in August
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4% Up from 62.3%
Employment- 159.732 million Up from 159.415 million
Next data release December 16, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in September, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government…

Publication of September data was delayed by more than 6 weeks because of a lapse in federal appropriations. Collection of September data for the household survey had been completed in accordance with our normal schedule prior to the federal government shutdown. September estimates from the establishment survey include both data collected on our normal schedule prior to the shutdown and also September data that businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown…

Establishment survey data for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data… Household survey data were not collected for the October 2025 reference period “

You can read the full BLS report here.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up from 4.3% to 4.4%. As we can see, unemployment is 1% above the January and April lows of 2023 but relatively unchanged over the last year.

No BLS Employment Data for October 2025 But ADP Says 42K New Jobs

November 7, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data regarding the Unemployment situation in October was not released on November 7^th as scheduled due to the continuing Federal Government shutdown.

Although AI automation is improving company profitability, it is also reducing the need for lower-level employees as Senior employees become more productive by using AI. This is squeezing younger employees. Back in May, Microsoft announced it would cut nearly 4% of its workforce, particularly in sales (~6,000 jobs), as it realigns around heavy AI investments. Reuters

Not all the news is bad…

Amazon will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs as the online retail giant ramps up spending on artificial intelligence while cutting costs elsewhere… However, simultaneously, it is hiring 250,000 seasonal workers, the same as last year’s holiday season. AP News

“In 2023, IBM made headlines with the announcement of nearly 8,000 layoffs, primarily from support roles such as Human Resources. The goal? To replace these workers with artificial intelligence (AI), automating repetitive tasks and increasing efficiency. However, just months later, the company found itself doing something it hadn’t anticipated: rehiring many of those workers… despite these significant savings, IBM’s workforce actually grew after the layoffs. Arvind Krishna, the CEO, explained to the Wall Street Journal that while AI had helped streamline operations, it also allowed the company to reinvest in other areas. Rather than eliminating jobs permanently, IBM found that the freed-up resources were being directed towards higher-value roles.” GlassAlmanac

Meta Platforms is cutting roughly 600 artificial intelligence jobs… even as it continues to hire more workers for its superintelligence lab. Intellizence

Interestingly, more than half of the companies that perform layoffs citing automation/AI now say they regret the decision. TechRepublic+1

So, although AI reducing jobs is creating headlines, the truth may be entirely different. Throughout history, ever since the Luddite Weavers in the early 1800s, workers have feared the loss of jobs due to technological advances. But the truth is that after the initial displacements, technology has created more (and higher-paying) jobs than it has destroyed. Of course, the displaced workers suffer initially and retraining is often required. But those able to adapt to the changes are often better off in the end, while those unable to adapt suffer.

Many years ago, I said, “The only thing constant in life is change. Those who adapt quickest thrive, those who adapt slowly survive, those who don’t adapt at all are relegated to the lowest levels of existence, poverty, and misery. The key to success is to adapt quickly… it will put you at the head of the pack.” – Tim McMahon

Based on the alternative data from ADP we see: [Read more…] about No BLS Employment Data for October 2025 But ADP Says 42K New Jobs

September Unemployment Situation

October 3, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data regarding the Unemployment situation in September was not released on October 3^rd as scheduled due to the Federal Government shutdown.

Based on the alternative data from ADP we see:

According to ADP:

Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The numbers are released a few days before the BLS numbers and are often quite different.

Source: ADP®

ADP Private Employment by Establishment Size

Small to medium-sized companies shed employees in September. However, larger companies took up some of the slack by adding employees.

ADP Job Gainers / Losers

Drilling down a bit deeper, we can see that the largest gainer was Education and Health which makes sense with school going back in session and health always looking for more help. And the biggest loser isn’t surprising either as Leisure and Hospitality cuts back as the Summer winds down.

ADP Pay Insights

September pay gains were steady for job-stayers

Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed in September at 4.5 percent. Pay gains for job-changers slowed to 6.6 percent from 7.1 percent in August, led by leisure and hospitality and financial activities.

The Median Annual Pay for Job Stayers in September was $61,000.

Source: ADP

Read more on UnemploymentData.com.

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YFF has a new editor, so we won’t be posting new links anymore.

August 2025 Employment Situation

September 6, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 5^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% Up from 4.2%
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% Down from 4.6% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% Down from 8.3% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.3% Up from 62.2%
Employment- 159.410 million Up from 159.210 million
Next data release October 3, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in August, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction…

Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) and is down by 97,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 159.227 million jobs for July,
which they adjusted slightly to 159.210 million in September.

They are currently reporting 159.410 million jobs for August, which is an increase of 200,000 jobs based on their new numbers or 183,000 based on their original numbers. The LFPR increased from 62.2% to 62.3%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up from 4.2% to 4.3%. As we can see, unemployment is 0.9% above the January and April lows of 2023 but relatively unchanged over the last year.

BLS Data Controversy

August 8, 2025 by Tim McMahon

Over the years, I have frequently mentioned the ongoing data revisions of the employment numbers. So much so, that we maintain a list of the originally published employment numbers and the currently published numbers. We also highlight the change every month in our eTrends Newsletter (See Subscription box on Right) when the BLS releases its new numbers.

Last year, the BLS OVERESTIMATED employment in November and December 2024 by more than 1/2 million each month, i.e., 515,000 in December and 678,000 in November. But that was after declaring in February that they were overestimating employment by roughly that amount every month.

Data Fudging or Legit Revision?

Throughout 2023 and 2024, the BLS consistently published high employment numbers. But then, a couple of months later, when no one was paying much attention, they would adjust the numbers down by roughly half a million. [Read more…] about BLS Data Controversy

Early Warning Signs of a Weakening Economy in July 2025

August 2, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 1^st,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from 4.1%
Unadjusted U3- 4.6% Up from 4.4% in June
Unadjusted U6- 8.3% Up from 8.1% in June
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.2% Down from 62.3%
Employment- 159.227 million Down from 160.293 million
Next data release September 5, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed decreased in July, Unadjusted Unemployment was up, as was Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment. There are a few early warning signs of a slowing Labor Market.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

Federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12,000) and is down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 160.475 million for June,
which they adjusted down to 160.293 million as of this month.

They are currently reporting 159.227 million jobs for July, which is actually a monthly decrease of 1,248,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 1,066,000 based on their new numbers.

Early Warning Signs of a Weakening Economy

Although the U3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate is only up 1/10^th of a percent, and the BLS Commissioner tried to put an optimistic spin on it, the number of job openings in the U.S. fell by 275,000 to around 7.4 million last month. So, hiring is slacking off.

Unadjusted Establishment Survey jobs are down by 1,248,000 jobs based on their original June numbers.

The LFPR is down from 62.3% to 62.2%, back to November 2022 levels.

Also, the “Starbucks Indicator” created by Stansberry’s Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase, which says that when Starbucks sales decline for several quarters in a row, the economy is weakening. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing today. Earlier this week, Starbucks reported same-store sales fell 2%. That marked the sixth straight quarter of falling same-store sales.

And, as the Commissioner said, since Government employees scheduled for downsizing are still being paid, they aren’t being counted as unemployed yet, but when their severance pay runs out, that will spike the unemployment rate.

We may be seeing the beginning of an upturn in unemployment in the longer durations, i.e., it is starting to take longer to find a job, 24.9% of those unemployed have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer.

And finally, looking at the Employment / Population by Race, we see a declining trend in the Employment of Blacks (i.e., the most vulnerable segment of the population). In the chart below, we can see that it has steadily declined for almost two years now. But it sharply declined this month.On the plus side,

ADP’s Chief Economist says, “Employers have grown more optimistic”.

Weakening jobs numbers could force Powell to lower interest rates.

The exodus of illegals should open up more jobs for Americans. According to the WSJ, since mid‑2024, over 1.6 million foreign-born workers have left the U.S. labor force. During the same period, U.S.-born workers added roughly 2.5 million jobs, suggesting a shift toward domestic labor filling openings formerly held by immigrants. One Example: After ICE removes illegal workers, job applicants flood meatpacking plant to replace them.

Also, Trump is negotiating Billions in increased manufacturing investment in the U.S., so in the longer run, jobs should increase, but in the meantime, we may be in for a bit of a rough patch.

Despite these early signs of weakening, FED Chairman Powell didn’t reduce rates at Wednesday’s meeting, citing concerns of rising inflation. But, the market has noted the signs of weakness, and the Futures market has increased the odds of a rate cut in September, from 38% on Wednesday to 85% after Friday’s jobs report.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up from 4.1% to 4.2%. As we can see, unemployment is 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023 but relatively unchanged over the last year.