unemployment

October Employment Hits New Record High

November 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for October on November 2^nd. Unadjusted U-3 and U-6 Unemployment is down again and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 was 3.7% for the second month in a row. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when it was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Employment is at an all time record 150.753 million the previous high was set in June 2018. Last month employment was 149.738 million so the actual increase in jobs was over 1 million, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 250,000. Even that was significantly higher than the projected 208,000.

Previous Record Low Unemployment

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Key October Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged from September down from 3.9% in August.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.0% down from 7.1% in September and 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
Employment 150.753 million up from 149.741 million in September. (Yes over a Million more jobs!)
October Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

The Differential between U3 and U6 Remains Near September 2006 Lows

Last month the differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) was at 3.5% and remains there for the 3rd month in a row.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about October Employment Hits New Record High

Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Unemployment Lows in September

October 20, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Unemployment rates by state on Friday October 19^th. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for September fell over the previous month in 9 states, were higher in 4 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 1 state, decreased in 9 states, and was stable in 37 states and D.C.

In the following map we can see the states with the lowest unemployment are light colored while the higher unemployment states are darker colored.

Unemployment

Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Series Lows

Hawaii had the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September, at 2.2%. Arkansas (3.5%), California (4.1%), Idaho (2.7%), South Carolina (3.3%), Texas (3.8%), and Washington (4.4%) set a new series low since tracking began in 1976. At 6.5% Alaska had the highest jobless rate, not counting Puerto Rico’s 8.4% which is down 2.2% from year ago levels. In total, 13 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.7 percent, 12 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had higher rates, and 25 states had [Read more…] about Arkansas, California, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Washington Set New Unemployment Lows in September

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

September 8, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Correction: The differential was only 3.5% in August 2018 and 3.2% in September 2006 so we are only nearing the 2006 level not at the 2006 level.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of August on September 7^th .

The current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for August (released September 7^th) is 3.9% unchanged from last month.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it was 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It was 3.9% in April, 3.8% in May, 4.0% in June, and 3.9% in July.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July so seasonally adjusting takes that into consideration.

	Unadjusted U-3	Unadjusted U-3
	2017	2018
May	4.1%	3.6%
June	4.5%	4.2%
July	4.6%	4.1%
August	4.5%	3.9%

Key August Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% unchanged from July, down from 4.0% in June but above the 3.8% in May, it was 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October 2017 – March 2018.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June but still above the 3.6% in May, and 3.7% in April below the 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.4% down from 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June, up slightly from record lows of 7.3% in May, and 7.4% in April. Below the 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.226 million up from 148.901 million in July.
August Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% down from July LFPR 62.9%

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

In August we saw a massive drop in the differential between U-3 and U-6 so perhaps we are getting closer to “full employment” the lows on this chart are at 2.7% in October 2000 and 3.2% in September 2006. Since the current differential is once again 3.2% we have reached the lows of 2006. Back in January 2017 the media was saying that we were at “Full Employment” and we couldn’t expect anything better, manufacturing jobs would never come back etc. At that time I said we had a long way to go and that the differential between the U-6 and U-3 was nowhere near bottoming (the sign of full employment) at the time the differential was around 5%. See: Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? But with the differential currently at 3.2% now we are at or very near that level. Since October 2000 reached a low of 2.7% we could still go a bit lower.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

Unemployment Rates by State July 2018

August 17, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to today’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Unemployment rates by state, Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for July fell over the previous month in 11 states, were higher in 2 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia. Ten states saw jobless rate decreases from July 2017 levels and 40 states and D.C. had little or no change.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 6 states in July 2018, decreased in 1 state, and was virtually unchanged in 43 states and D.C. Over the year, 34 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 16 states and D.C. were essentially unchanged.

In the following map we can see the states with the lowest unemployment are light colored while the higher unemployment states are darker colored.

Unemployment

“Oregon lowest unemployment since 1976”

Hawaii had the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in July, at 2.1%. At 3.9% Oregon set a new series low since tracking began in 1976. At 6.9% Alaska had the highest jobless rate, not counting Puerto Rico’s 9.1%. In total, 15 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.9 percent, 10 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had higher rates, and 25 states had [Read more…] about Unemployment Rates by State July 2018

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

August 4, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of July on Friday August 3^rd .

The current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July (released August 3^rd) is 3.9% down from 4.0% last month. It was 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. Unemployment was 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. Seasonally adjusted unemployment bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July so seasonally adjusting takes that into consideration. If we look at Unadjusted Unemployment we see that in 2017 it jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June at the same time the Seasonally Adjusted numbers simply went from 4.3% to 4.4%.

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.0% in June but up from the 3.8% in May, 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.2% in June up from 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.9% down from 8.1% in June, up from 7.3% in May, 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 148.901 million. BLS adjusted June employment up from 148.912 million as released to 150.057 million.
NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9% from a recent high of 63.4%

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

EU Unemployment Nearing Pre-Recession Levels

August 1, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Way back in the first quarter of 2008 European Union (E.U.) unemployment bottomed at 6.8%. Then as the world slid into recession unemployment began climbing, ultimately peaking at 11.0% in the first half of 2013. From there it has gradually declined to 7.1% as we can see in this chart created by Statista.

During the same period U.S. unemployment levels were considerably lower with a bottom of 4.4% (roughly 2/3rds the EU level) in October & December 2006 and again in March and May of 2007. And then we see that U.S. unemployment peaked earlier i.e. in October 2009 (compared to 2012-13 for the EU) and at a lower level 10.1% for the U.S. compared to 11.0% for the E.U. Interestingly the U.S. unemployment rate actually shot up faster in that it reached 10.1% in 2009 while the E.U. was still around 9% at that time. But then the U.S. rate turned down while the E.U. unemployment rate continued upward for another 3 years!

Currently the U.S. rate isbelow 2006-07 levels while the E.U. rate has not yet reached 2007 levels. And current U.S. levels are roughly 56% of E.U. levels.

Why are E.U Unemployment Levels So Much Higher?

This makes us ask a few questions:

Why are U.S. unemployment levels consistently lower than E.U. levels?
Why did U.S. unemployment levels rise faster than E.U. levels?
Why did E.U. unemployment levels take longer to fall? [Read more…] about EU Unemployment Nearing Pre-Recession Levels

June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

July 7, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of June on Friday July 6^th .

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June (released July 6^th) is 4.0% up from 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. It was 4.1% where it was stuck from October 2017 through March 2018. Prior to October it was bouncing around between 4.3% and 4.4% since April 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July, so even though 213,000 more people are employed, unemployment levels still went up. (Probably because students are swelling the labor force for the summer). Last year (2017) Unadjusted Unemployment jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June while Employment went from 146.937 million to 147.578 million. So even though more people are working more people are also looking for a job. This has driven the Labor Force Participation Rate at 63.4% to levels not seen in several years. NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9%.

Key June Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from 3.8% in May, 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.2% up from 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.1% up from 7.3% in May, 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.980 million up from 149.334 million in May, 148.372 million in April and 147.384 million in March.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

May Unemployment Lowest Since 2000

June 2, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of May on Friday June 1^st .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is at a new low. Unemployment has been falling and has now reached levels not seen since April of 2000. Current levels are even lower than during the boom of 2006. If they drop another 1/10^th of a percent we will have to go all the way back to 1969 to find levels that low.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable. See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.8% Down from 3.9% in April and 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.6% down from 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- May 7.3% Down from 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.309 million up from 148.367 million in April and 147.369 million in March.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below only one sector is to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees except Utilities which lost -1,100 employees. The big gainers were Education and Health, Professional and business Services, Construction, Leisure and Manufacturing.

The biggest gainer was Education and Health Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 39,000+ jobs, followed by Retail and Professional Services which each gained roughly 31,000 jobs, Leisure gained 21,000 jobs and manufacturing gained another 18,000 on top of consistently high gains for the last few months. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased to $928.74.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

May 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	218,000	$928.74	126,336,000
Mining and Logging	4,000	$1,500.09	733,000
Construction	25,000	$1,174.14	7,210,000
Manufacturing	18,000	$1,097.52	12,673,000
Wholesale trade	4,200	$1,189.81	5,954,800
Retail trade	31,100	$579.70	15,970,300
Transportation and Warehousing	18,700	$940.41	5,309,300
Utilities	-1,100	$1,689.89	554,400
Information	6,000	$1,418.40	2,775,000
Financial Activities	8,000	$1,303.88	8,559,000
Professional and Business Services	31,000	$1,164.92	20,891,000
Education and Health Services	39,000	$887.70	23,563,000
Leisure and Hospitality	21,000	$413.95	16,281,000
Other Services	13,000	$772.53	5,862,000

April Unemployment Lowest Level Since 2000

May 5, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of April on Friday May 4^th .

At 3.9% the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is at its lowest level since December 2000. The Unadjusted U-3 is at 3.7%.

Key April Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% Down from 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% down from 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.4% Down massively from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 148.367 million up from 147.369 million in March but still below the 148.783 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below only one sector is to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees in April except Wholesale Trade which lost -9,800 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainers were Professional and Business Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 54,000 jobs, followed by Education and Health Services which gained 31,000 jobs and Manufacturing which gained 24,000 jobs. Interestingly all three were the top gainers last month as well with similar gains. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased from $925.29 to $925.98.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

April 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	168,000	$925.98	126,106,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,483.82	730,000
Construction	17,000	$1,170.39	7,174,000
Manufacturing	24,000	$1,106.00	12,655,000
Wholesale trade	-9,800	$1,176.34	5,952,700
Retail trade	1,800	$575.67	15,927,000
Transportation and Warehousing	400	$943.71	5,285,400
Utilities	1,000	$1,698.31	555,300
Information	7,000	$1,416.93	2,772,000
Financial Activities	2,000	$1,285.92	8,549,000
Professional and Business Services	54,000	$1,166.73	20,869,000
Education and Health Services	31,000	$884.40	23,517,000
Leisure and Hospitality	18,000	$413.16	16,272,000
Other Services	14,000	$773.69	5,848,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell steadily from 8.9% in January to 7.4% in April.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by 998,000 jobs in April. The BLS Commissioner said:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent. Over the month, job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.“

Actual employment was 147.369 million in March and 148.367 million in April for an actual increase of 998,000 not the 164,000 spoken of by the Commissioner. The 164,000 is “Seasonally Adjusted” meaning that employment increased by that much more than average for this time of year.

See Employment Commentary.

Employment / Population Ratio

If you take the number of jobs and divide it by the population you get what percentage of the population is working. You

California at 4.3% has Lowest Unemployment Since 1976

March 27, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent unemployment data broken down by state (released in March for the month of February), Hawaii had the lowest unemployment at 2.1% followed by North Dakota and New Hampshire at 2.6%. Vermont and Nebraska were also at 2.8%.

The rates in California (4.3%), Maine (2.9%), Mississippi (4.5%), and Wisconsin (2.9%) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.)

Although not technically a state, Puerto Rico had the highest jobless rate at 10.6% followed by Alaska at 7.3% while New Mexico had 5.8%, the District of Columbia had 5.7% and West Virginia had 5.4%.

The following table lists the [Read more…] about California at 4.3% has Lowest Unemployment Since 1976