unemployment

October Employment Up 1.6 Million

November 7, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Employment Increased by 1.6 Million in October

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 6^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 7.7% to 6.6%.
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 7.9% to 6.9%.
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 12.4% to 11.6%.
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.4% to 61.7%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 141.854 million to 143.459 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined.”

Of course, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 141.855 million jobs for September, this month they only adjusted that slightly.
So currently they are saying 141.854 million jobs for September and 143.459 million for October.
which is actually an increase of 1,604,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

Should You Buy a House When Unemployed?

October 31, 2020 by Guest Contributor

For many people, moving from the renting stage to the homeowning stage is a big priority. However, if you are facing unemployment, your work status could negatively impact your ability to pass all the checks necessary to get to the buying part of the process. However, there are still some ways that people dealing with unemployment might be able to get the home they want. Here are some tips that can help you buy a house when unemployed.

Get a Helping Hand

Sometimes owning a Condo, small house or mobile home is actually cheaper than paying rent. In this case, buying might be in your financial best interests, but the trick is going to be getting the money up-front. Perhaps you can get a parent or relative to be your banker and loan you the money to buy your house and they will make the terms flexible enough get you through this tough time of unemployment. But for both of your protection, you should have a written contract with the terms of the loan clearly spelled out.

If you are moving into a new home with a roommate, they may have less debt or better credit than you do. In these cases, it may be a good idea to let that person take the lead on things like a mortgage application. Your unemployed status should not be a factor that works against you if it is the partner signing the agreements. But, once again, if you are going to be a co-owner be sure to get the terms of your agreement in writing. No matter how friendly you are at the moment, you don’t want to end up in court in a “he said she said” situation. If you are making payments to your roommate be sure there is a written record of every payment you make and whether it is an ownership or rental situation.

September Employment Up 1.25 Million not 661,000

October 3, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Employment Increased by 1.25 Million in September

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 2nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 8.5% to 7.7%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 8.4% to 7.9%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 14.3% to 12.4%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.4%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 140.718 million to 141.855 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.

In September, employment continued to increase in several industries, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. By contrast, employment declined in government, mainly in state and local government education.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 140.598 million jobs for August, they added 120,000 jobs since that estimate.
So currently they are saying 140.718 million jobs for August and 141.855 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 1,257,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

Latino Unemployment Lower than Asian Unemployment for First Time

September 5, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Employment Increased by 1.5 Million in August

Latino unemployment is lower than Asian unemployment for the first time since the BLS began tracking Asian unemployment separately.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 4th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 10.5% to 8.5%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 10.2% to 8.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 16.8% to 14.3%!
Labor Force Participation rose from 61.4% to 61.7%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 139.063 to 140.598 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In August, employment rose in several major industry sectors. A gain in government largely reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 139.100 million jobs for July, they subtracted 37,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 139.063 million jobs for July and 140.598 million jobs for August which is an increase of 1,535,000 jobs based on their updated estimates.

Employment Up by a Half-Million in a Typically Bad Month

August 8, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Typically July is one of the worst months for employment second only to January. But this obviously isn’t a typical year.

More than a Half-Million People Return to Work in July as COVID restrictions relax.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 7^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 11.2% to 10.5%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 11.1% to 10.2%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 18.3% to 16.8%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.5% to 61.4%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 138.509 to 139.100 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Non-farm payroll employment increased by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, employment rose in several major industries, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.”

“The rate of recovery in the labor market slowed in July, as job growth over the month was less than half that for June. As of July, total non-farm employment is 12.9 million, or 8.4 percent, lower than in February, before the pandemic crisis unfolded in many parts of the United States. Similarly, although unemployment continued to fall in July, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed people are up by 6.7 percentage points and 10.6 million, respectively, since February.”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 138.513 million jobs for June, they subtracted 4,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 138.509 million jobs for June and 139.100 million jobs for July which is an increase of 591,000 jobs based on their updated estimates.

Over 5 Million More Jobs in June

July 2, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 2^nd.

More than 5 million People Return to Work in June as COVID restrictions relax.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 13.0% to 11.2%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 13.3% to 11.1%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 20.7% to 18.3%!
Labor Force Participation rose from 60.8% to 61.5%.
Unadjusted Employment up by approx. 5.1 million jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In June, employment continued to rise in several major industry sectors, with the largest gain in leisure and hospitality. Notable gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 133.342 million jobs for May and then in June, they added 68,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 133.410 million jobs for May and 138.513 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 5.171 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month or 5.103 million increase based on their updated estimates.

Unemployment Rate Falls Contrary to Economist’s Projections

June 6, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 5th.

COVID-19 Unemployment Decreases as People Return to Work

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 14.4% to 13.0%.
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 14.7% to 13.3%.
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 22.4% to 20.7%.
Labor Force Participation rose from 60.2% to 60.8%.
Unadjusted Employment rose by approx. 2.9 million jobs.

Civilian Unemployment

Economists were predicting another stairstep increase in unemployment in May. According to a CNBC article “Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to drop by 8.33 million and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% from April’s 14.7%.”

Instead, Unemployment fell to 13.3% and payrolls rose by 2.9 million making the “experts” wrong by roughly 11 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.

In May, employment rose in several major industry sectors, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 131.071 million jobs for April and then they subtracted 660,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 130.411 million jobs for April and 133.342 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 2.271 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month. Or 2.931 million jobs based on their current estimates of April’s employment.

Unemployment Rate by State April 2020

May 23, 2020 by Tim McMahon

On May 22^nd 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rates for each of the fifty U.S. states but “Due to the effects of the pandemic and efforts to contain the virus, Puerto Rico was not able to conduct normal data collection for its household survey in March or April 2020.”

According to the May 8^th BLS data, April’s overall U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 14.7% in today’s release we can see that some states had significantly higher rates with Nevada having 28.2% Unemployment, and Hawaii and Michigan having 22.3% and 22.7% unemployment respectively. At first blush, we might consider Hawaii and Nevada as understandable due to their high reliance on tourism but Michigan doesn’t have high tourism. And if high tourism is the cause for Hawaii and Nevada why does a high tourism state like Florida have “only” 12.9% unemployment?

By looking at the map we can see the high unemployment states are clustered in the Northeast and run down to Louisiana (which got hit with a double whammy of both the Coronavirus and falling oil prices). Other hard-hit areas are the West Coast and Hawaii.

State Unemployment Levels

The following table provides [Read more…] about Unemployment Rate by State April 2020

Coronavirus Shutdown Causes 20 Million Job Losses

May 9, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 8^th.

COVID-19 Shutdowns Send Unemployment Rate Soaring

Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 4.5% to 14.4%!
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 4.4% to 14.7%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 8.9% to 22.4%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 62.7% to 60.2%.
Unadjusted Employment down by approx. -19.5 MILLION jobs.

Civilian Unemployment

In April, the ranks of the unemployed swelled by almost 20 million bringing it up to approximately 23 million in total. Rather than looking at percentages, the following chart looks at the actual number of unemployed individuals. The current number of unemployed is considerably higher than at the peak of the 2008-2010 “great recession”.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate increased to 14.7 percent, reflecting the widespread impact on the job market of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors, with a
particularly large decline in the leisure and hospitality sector.

The response rate for the household survey continued to be adversely affected by pandemic-related issues, while that for the establishment survey returned to a normal range in April. In addition, there were changes to the estimation methods for the establishment survey to better account for the historic number of temporary or permanent business closures in April. The impacts of the pandemic on the household and payroll surveys are detailed in the April Employment Situation news release and accompanying materials (available on the BLS website)). For both surveys, we were able to obtain estimates that met BLS standards for accuracy and reliability.

The substantial job declines related to the coronavirus pandemic started in March, as payroll employment declined by 870,000, as revised. Job losses accelerated in April, as an additional 20.5 million jobs were lost. These April losses were pervasive across all industry sectors, and brought nonfarm employment to its lowest level since February 2011.

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.804 million jobs for March and then they subtracted 221,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 150.583 million jobs for March and 131.071 million jobs for April which is actually a decrease of -19.733 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month. Or -19.512 million jobs based on their current estimates of March’s employment.

Coronavirus Skyrockets March Unemployment

April 4, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 3rd.

COVID-19 Shutdowns Send Unemployment Rate Soaring

The BLS commissioner emphasized that even though the numbers are collected mid-month and the massive shutdown had just begun it was already having detrimental effects on the unemployment rate and we can expect worse to come.

Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.8% to 4.5%!
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 4.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 7.4% to 8.9%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 63.4% to 62.7%.
Unadjusted Employment down by approx. 193,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent, reflecting the broad impact on the job market of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain the illness. Employment fell by 459,000 in the leisure and hospitality industry, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable employment decreases also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.

It is important to keep in mind that the March survey reference periods for the establishment and household surveys (the pay period or week, respectively, that includes the 12th of the month) predated many business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month. In addition, data collection for the two surveys was affected by the coronavirus.

Although response rates for both surveys were adversely affected by pandemic-related issues, we still were able to obtain estimates from our two surveys that met BLS standards for accuracy and reliability.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.997 million jobs for February and then they added 58,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 151.055 million jobs for February and 150.804 million jobs for March
which is actually a decrease of 193,000 jobs compared to what they originally reported last month. [Read more…] about Coronavirus Skyrockets March Unemployment