unemployment

Over 5 Million More Jobs in June

July 2, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 2^nd.

More than 5 million People Return to Work in June as COVID restrictions relax.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 13.0% to 11.2%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 13.3% to 11.1%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 20.7% to 18.3%!
Labor Force Participation rose from 60.8% to 61.5%.
Unadjusted Employment up by approx. 5.1 million jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In June, employment continued to rise in several major industry sectors, with the largest gain in leisure and hospitality. Notable gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 133.342 million jobs for May and then in June, they added 68,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 133.410 million jobs for May and 138.513 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 5.171 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month or 5.103 million increase based on their updated estimates.

Unemployment Rate Falls Contrary to Economist’s Projections

June 6, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 5th.

COVID-19 Unemployment Decreases as People Return to Work

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 14.4% to 13.0%.
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 14.7% to 13.3%.
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 22.4% to 20.7%.
Labor Force Participation rose from 60.2% to 60.8%.
Unadjusted Employment rose by approx. 2.9 million jobs.

Civilian Unemployment

Economists were predicting another stairstep increase in unemployment in May. According to a CNBC article “Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to drop by 8.33 million and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% from April’s 14.7%.”

Instead, Unemployment fell to 13.3% and payrolls rose by 2.9 million making the “experts” wrong by roughly 11 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.

In May, employment rose in several major industry sectors, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 131.071 million jobs for April and then they subtracted 660,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 130.411 million jobs for April and 133.342 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 2.271 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month. Or 2.931 million jobs based on their current estimates of April’s employment.

Unemployment Rate by State April 2020

May 23, 2020 by Tim McMahon

On May 22^nd 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rates for each of the fifty U.S. states but “Due to the effects of the pandemic and efforts to contain the virus, Puerto Rico was not able to conduct normal data collection for its household survey in March or April 2020.”

According to the May 8^th BLS data, April’s overall U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 14.7% in today’s release we can see that some states had significantly higher rates with Nevada having 28.2% Unemployment, and Hawaii and Michigan having 22.3% and 22.7% unemployment respectively. At first blush, we might consider Hawaii and Nevada as understandable due to their high reliance on tourism but Michigan doesn’t have high tourism. And if high tourism is the cause for Hawaii and Nevada why does a high tourism state like Florida have “only” 12.9% unemployment?

By looking at the map we can see the high unemployment states are clustered in the Northeast and run down to Louisiana (which got hit with a double whammy of both the Coronavirus and falling oil prices). Other hard-hit areas are the West Coast and Hawaii.

State Unemployment Levels

The following table provides [Read more…] about Unemployment Rate by State April 2020

Coronavirus Shutdown Causes 20 Million Job Losses

May 9, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 8^th.

COVID-19 Shutdowns Send Unemployment Rate Soaring

Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 4.5% to 14.4%!
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 4.4% to 14.7%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 8.9% to 22.4%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 62.7% to 60.2%.
Unadjusted Employment down by approx. -19.5 MILLION jobs.

Civilian Unemployment

In April, the ranks of the unemployed swelled by almost 20 million bringing it up to approximately 23 million in total. Rather than looking at percentages, the following chart looks at the actual number of unemployed individuals. The current number of unemployed is considerably higher than at the peak of the 2008-2010 “great recession”.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate increased to 14.7 percent, reflecting the widespread impact on the job market of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors, with a
particularly large decline in the leisure and hospitality sector.

The response rate for the household survey continued to be adversely affected by pandemic-related issues, while that for the establishment survey returned to a normal range in April. In addition, there were changes to the estimation methods for the establishment survey to better account for the historic number of temporary or permanent business closures in April. The impacts of the pandemic on the household and payroll surveys are detailed in the April Employment Situation news release and accompanying materials (available on the BLS website)). For both surveys, we were able to obtain estimates that met BLS standards for accuracy and reliability.

The substantial job declines related to the coronavirus pandemic started in March, as payroll employment declined by 870,000, as revised. Job losses accelerated in April, as an additional 20.5 million jobs were lost. These April losses were pervasive across all industry sectors, and brought nonfarm employment to its lowest level since February 2011.

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.804 million jobs for March and then they subtracted 221,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 150.583 million jobs for March and 131.071 million jobs for April which is actually a decrease of -19.733 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month. Or -19.512 million jobs based on their current estimates of March’s employment.

Coronavirus Skyrockets March Unemployment

April 4, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 3rd.

COVID-19 Shutdowns Send Unemployment Rate Soaring

The BLS commissioner emphasized that even though the numbers are collected mid-month and the massive shutdown had just begun it was already having detrimental effects on the unemployment rate and we can expect worse to come.

Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.8% to 4.5%!
Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 4.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 7.4% to 8.9%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 63.4% to 62.7%.
Unadjusted Employment down by approx. 193,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4 percent, reflecting the broad impact on the job market of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain the illness. Employment fell by 459,000 in the leisure and hospitality industry, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable employment decreases also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.

It is important to keep in mind that the March survey reference periods for the establishment and household surveys (the pay period or week, respectively, that includes the 12th of the month) predated many business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month. In addition, data collection for the two surveys was affected by the coronavirus.

Although response rates for both surveys were adversely affected by pandemic-related issues, we still were able to obtain estimates from our two surveys that met BLS standards for accuracy and reliability.”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.997 million jobs for February and then they added 58,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 151.055 million jobs for February and 150.804 million jobs for March
which is actually a decrease of 193,000 jobs compared to what they originally reported last month. [Read more…] about Coronavirus Skyrockets March Unemployment

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

March 7, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 6th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% in January to 3.5% in February. Thus returning to the previous low levels of September, November, and December after increasing slightly in January.
We are still in record low territory and that won’t change overnight. Seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment notched up 1/10^th of a percent in January and fell back the same amount in February. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remains in territory that it hasn’t seen in years…

This is better than expected results and according to @AP News it shows that “the economy was in strong shape before the coronavirus began to sweep
through the U.S. “

The average monthly wage is up almost $130 over year-ago levels so two-income families are bringing in an average of at least $250 a month more. (See employment by Sector for more info).

This month we will also look at unemployment by Education level, and reasons for unemployment.

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Unadjusted U-3 was down from 4.0% to 3.8%!
Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-6 was down from 7.7% to 7.4%!
Labor Force Participation remains at the highest level since 2013.
Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 880,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent.
Notable employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

But, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 150.102 million jobs for January and then they added 15,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 150.117 million jobs for January and 150.997 million jobs for February
which is actually an increase of 895,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month and 880,000 more than current estimates for last month.

Of course, the Corona Virus scare is affecting the Stock Market as the AP news was quick to point out. So March numbers may be affected by that.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

Comparing U.S. and European Unemployment Rates

February 17, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Often we get complacent and think that our situation is the same (or very similar to) other developed countries. But that is not always the case. Today we are going to look at how the unemployment rate in the U.S. compares to that of Europe.

In the following chart created by Statista from data supplied by “Eurostat” and “National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (France)” we can see that Europe itself is not one unified block with identical (or even similar) unemployment rates.

The data in this graphic is from the end of 2019 when unemployment rates in the United States were at 3.5%. We can see that the countries in yellow had comparable unemployment rates to the U.S. i.e. Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands. Britain, Romania, and Bulgaria were in the high 3’s with the surprise being the Czech Republic coming in at a scant 2.0%. According to an article in The Atlantic, the 2017 elections decimated the “Left and Center” leaving the moderate right and the anti-immigrant far-right. So we are free to conclude that without the influx of cheap labor from Northern Africa, that all of the rest of Europe welcomed with open arms, the Czech Republic has record low unemployment as only native Czech’s are competing for the jobs.

One of the other surprises is that [Read more…] about Comparing U.S. and European Unemployment Rates

January Employment Report- Maybe Not as Good?

February 8, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 7^th.

Last month we told you that the employment report was not as bad as the media tried to paint it. This month The New York Times is saying “Job Growth Gives the Economy an Upbeat Start to the Year” while Marketwatch calls the Labor Market “Astounding” and once again we have a slightly different opinion.

Yes, we are still in record low territory and that won’t change overnight. Seasonally adjusted Unemployment only notched up 1/10^th of a percent and the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) has entered territory that it hasn’t seen in years… BUT the unadjusted numbers jumped up significantly (as they do every year) and the BLS adjusted the Population numbers DOWN significantly. This adjustment is what the pundits are not seeing and what makes me think the numbers may not be quite as good as they appear i.e. lower population means a higher percentage appears to be working (even though the actual unadjusted employment fell). This could have given the LFPR the apparent boost and made the Adjusted U-3 increase by less than it would have without the population adjustment. This is still not a bad employment report just perhaps not as rosy as the media made it sound.

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from December’s 3.5%… Typically up in January, it was 4.4% in January 2019.
Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.6% Up from 3.5% in December.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.7% Up from 6.7% in December… was 8.8% in January 2019.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 150.102 million down from 152,934 in December.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.4% Up from 63.2%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 225,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent.
Notable employment gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
In 2019, job growth averaged 175,000 per month.

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)” which showed a non-adjusted drop of 2.8 million jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

December Jobs Report Not “Disappointing”

January 11, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10^th.

CNBC was quick to label it “disappointing” but at 1/10^th of a percent off a 50 year low how disappointing can it really be? The unadjusted numbers were up slightly but that isn’t unusual for December and they weren’t even up by as much as they were last year. In December 2018 the unadjusted U-6 went from 7.2% to 7.5% (i.e. 0.3%). This year it went from 6.5% to 6.7% (up 0.2%). Last year the unadjusted U-3 went from 3.5% to 3.7% (up 0.2%) this year it went from 3.3% to 3.4% (up 0.1%). Last year the adjusted U-3 went from 3.7% to 3.9%. This year it went from… wait for it… 3.5% to 3.5%… what? Yes, it was unchanged. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment is exactly the same as last month (i.e. one of the best months in recorded history). What about Labor Force Participation? Unchanged at 63.2%… slightly off recent highs of 63.3% which it reached in October. The only “fly in the ointment” was actual unadjusted employment which was down slightly while adjusted Employment was still up by 145,000.

December Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-3 was up slightly from 3.3% to 3.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.5% to 6.7%
Labor Force Participation was unchanged at 63.2%.
Unadjusted Employment down slightly while adjusted Employment was up by 145,000.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent. Notable employment gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs. In 2019, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1 million, compared with a gain of 2.7 million in 2018.

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

This was not a bad jobs report!

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

November Unemployment- Another Banner Month

December 7, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 6^th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for November fell from 3.6% in October to 3.5% despite the media’s narrative that many employers are either delaying hiring until a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade war is reached.

November Jobs Report Smashes Expectations Again

Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.3%!
Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Unchanged at 6.5%!
Labor Force Participation retreated slightly from 63.3% to 63.2%.
Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 660,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in November, and the unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, was little changed. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Manufacturing employment increased as workers in motor vehicles and parts returned from a strike. Employment in health care increased by 45,000… Employment rose by 31,000 in professional and technical services… Employment in leisure and hospitality +45,000… Employment in transportation and warehousing +16,000… Employment in financial activities +13,000…

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
Originally the BLS reported 152,962 million jobs for October and they added 40,000 jobs to that estimate. Currently they are estimating 153.624 million jobs for November which is an increase of 662,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month. So what he is actually saying is that there were 266,000 more jobs created in November than is normal for this time of year!

Returning striking General Motors autoworkers added about 30,000 jobs in November, a one-time bounce-back that followed a 30,000 decline in October, when the GM strikers weren’t counted as employed. But even without that 30,000 Manufacturing still added 24,000 additional jobs!

Just days ago, the media and Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi were trying to paint a grim picture for the economy. Zandi told CNBC there was trouble brewing in the jobs market “Manufacturers, commodity producers and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining, and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase.”
Instead of a Decrease in jobs we got a massive INCREASE. And the futures market spiked upward on the good news.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.