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October 2022 BLS Employment Report

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Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

Employment Up – Unemployment Also Up?

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 153.197 million to 154.369
  • Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 6.4% to 6.3%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 4th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. Monthly job growth has averaged 407,000 thus
far in 2022, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 153.073 million for September, which they adjusted up to 153.197 million. So, 124,000 additional jobs appeared for September.

October gained an additional 1,272,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.369 million.

Initially, the market shot up under the news but as the day progressed the market lost most of its gains. 

See November FED Announcement Rocks Stock Market for more market info.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 239,000 jobs in October

  • Employers created 239,000 jobs in October, up from a revised 192,000 in September as restaurants, retailers and the travel sector ramped up hiring in advance of the year-end holidays.

ADP 11-2022

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Last month, there were increases across the board. This month’s results were mixed.

 

Unemployment

Looking at the chart for unemployment, we see that despite the increase in the number of people employed unemployment still ticked upward slightly.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate 11-22

Employment –Establishment Survey

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (154.369 million) is now above the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is 5 million higher now.

Current Employment 11-4-22

 

See Current Employment for more info.

[Read more…] about October 2022 BLS Employment Report

August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 2nd.

 

Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.263 million to 152.572
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.1% to 62.4%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.2% to 7.0%

 

Looking Back:

In June, we reported a few Early Indicators of a brewing recession.

  • Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
  • Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
  • Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

Since then, the BLS has changed the employment numbers for June from an initial 152.692 million for June. They adjusted down to 152.634 million in July and then down to 152.607 in August. So, a total of 85,000 jobs disappeared for June.

July’s Indicators

Originally they reported employment of  152.249 million jobs for July. They have adjusted that to 152.263 million , which is an increase of 14,000 jobs. For August, they are currently reporting 152.572 million,  an increase of 323,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 309,000 based on their updated numbers.

But… August employment is still below June’s employment no matter which number for June they use.

On the Bright Side

Labor Force Participation is Up to 62.4% where it peaked in March.

Labor Force Participation Rate

In the News:

Trying to put a good spin on rising unemployment US. News says:

Lower US Job Gain in August Could Aid Fed’s Inflation Fight

The NY Times is beating the same drum:

Job Market Cooled but Was Still Strong in August

The monthly employment report suggested that the Federal Reserve might be able to tame inflation without causing a recession.

CNN follows along:

Yes, the unemployment rate rose. Here’s why that’s good news

CNBC focuses on race instead:
While all demographic groups saw the unemployment rate tick up slightly, it rose at a sharper pace for both Hispanic and Black workers to 4.5% and 6.4%, respectively.

ADP National Employment Report

In addition to the BLS, we can look at the Jobs Report generated by private companies like ADP Research Institute. According to their numbers, August employment was up 132,000 not the 300,000+ that the BLS reports.

  • Private employers created 132,000 jobs in August, a step down from the month before, when the economy created nearly 270,000 jobs. Payroll growth also slowed in July when compared to June of this year.

About the ADP Report:

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent estimate of the change in U.S. private sector employment and pay derived from actual, anonymous payroll data of client companies served by ADP, a leading provider of human capital management solutions. The report is produced by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The ADP National Employment Report is broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, as part of the company’s commitment to offering deeper insights of the U.S. labor market and providing businesses and governments with a source of credible and valuable information.

Current Employment

Current Employment Chart

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. Total nonfarm employment increased by 5.8 million over the year, as the labor market continued to recover from the job losses of the pandemic-induced recession. This growth brings total nonfarm employment 240,000 above its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Employment is approaching the 2019 peak, although the population is now several million higher.

Historical Employment with Recessions

Historical Employment Chart

[Read more…] about August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

July 2022 Jobs Report- Not as Rosy as They’d Have You Believe

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Typically July Jobs Reports aren’t that great anyway so “Seasonal Adjustments” correct for that but let’s dig a bit deeper today.

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

 

  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.6% in June to 3.5% in July.
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.8% for June and July after being 3.4% in May.
  • Unadjusted U-6 went from 6.7% in May to 7.0% in June to 7.2% in July.
  • Unadjusted Employment FELL from 152.634 million to 152.249 million.
  • Average Weekly Wages Still Rising 

Looking Back:

Last month (for June) we reported the following “Early Indicators of a possible recession”

  • Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
  • Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
  • Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

July’s Indicators

According to CNBC:

“Hiring in July was far better than expected, defying multiple other signs that the economic recovery is losing steam, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.”

One of those “other signs” is the two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. This is definitely a sign of a slowing economy, but we have typically followed the National Bureau of Economic Research, i.e. NBER’s guidance of when a recession starts. Because that includes a variety of other factors (including unemployment) giving a fuller picture of the total economy, not just GDP. But NBER typically takes a while before they declare that a recession began months ago.

But… one reason the Employment situation is as good as it is, is because of the massive injection of FED funny money over the last two years which artificially boosted the economy.

According to CNN:

“The US economy has now regained all jobs lost during the pandemic, after a blowout July jobs report that showed a gain of 528,000 jobs, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The massive monthly gain was more than double the 250,000 that economists were expecting, according to Refinitiv.”

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. In July, both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels. Private-sector employment is 629,000 higher than in February 2020, although several sectors have yet to recover. Government employment is 597,000 lower than its pre-pandemic level.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

But looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.692 million for June which they adjusted this month down to 152.634 million. So, 58,000 jobs disappeared for June. So even if they just reported the same number as they originally did in June we would have a 58,000 job increase!

Now they are reporting 152.249 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 443,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 385,000 based on their updated numbers. So employment is actually down, unadjusted U6 is UP, Unadjusted U3 is UP, and LFPR is Down, but somehow this is presented as a rosy report. 

The other factor in their rosy outlook is that employment is now back to pre-covid levels. But when we look at the Establishment Survey numbers we see that February 2020 (pre-covid) at 150.968 million is actually below the November 2019 peak of 153.095 million. So the current 152.249 million is still below the 2019 peak, and that doesn’t even count the roughly 4 million increase in documented population plus the untold millions of new “undocumented” residents.

Current Employment Chart

Historical Employment with Recessions

Historical Employment

 

[Read more…] about July 2022 Jobs Report- Not as Rosy as They’d Have You Believe

June 2022 BLS Jobs Report- Recession Indicators?

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Early Indicators of possible recession appeared in the June jobs report, but you have to look closely to find them in reports by the mainstream media.

  • Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.4% to 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.7% to 7.0%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.964 to 151.773 million
  • Average Weekly Wages Still Rising 

 

Early Warning Negative Indicators

Early Indicators of a possible recession

  • Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
  • Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
  • Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.

The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the fourth month in a row, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 5.9 million in June. These measures are little different from their values in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively), prior to the coronavirus (COVID19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey.”

But looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported employment of 151.773 million for May, which they adjusted to 151.748 million. So 25,000 jobs disappeared in May. They are reporting 152.692 million jobs for June, which is an increase of 919,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 944,000 based on their updated numbers. 

According to CNN:

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released on Wednesday, showed there were 11.3 million job openings in May, or 1.9 positions for every job seeker, and historically low levels of layoffs… But, the BLS reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 2 totaled 235,000, an increase of 4,000 from the prior week’s reading and the highest level since mid-January…  New job cuts data released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that US employers announced 32,517 layoffs in June, a 58.8% increase from the same month last year, and the highest monthly total since February 2021. 

According to the Washington Post:

The strong job growth keeps pressure on the Fed to continue raising interest rates when it meets later this month. After years of keeping interest rates at or near zero, the central bank has so far hiked rates three times this year, by a total of 1.5 percentage points, in the hope of slowing the economy just enough to curb inflation, which is at 40-year highs, without pushing it into a deep recession.

Recession Ahead?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated that the economy shrank by 1.2 percent in the second quarter, which would put the U.S. in a recession by one common definition i.e. two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonprofit organization that is the official arbiter of recessions, also includes unemployment in their calculations, so according to their definition, there is no recession yet.

Employment is almost back to 2019 peak levels (although the civilian population is about 4 million higher now).

Historical Employment Chart

 

[Read more…] about June 2022 BLS Jobs Report- Recession Indicators?

May 2022- Unemployment by State

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On Friday, June 17th, 2022, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its breakdown of the unemployment rates for each individual state for May.

In the chart below, the lightest colors represent the states with the lowest unemployment rates.

Unemployment By State May 2022Looking at the above map, we can see that the lowest unemployment states run diagonally across the country, starting in Florida and ending in Montana and Idaho. Conversely, the states with the highest unemployment are located in the North East, the South West, and West Coast.  Of course, minor exceptions exist, but generally, it holds.

May 2022 Unemployment Rate by State Table (Alphabetical)

State May 2022 Unemployment Rate May 2021 Unemployment Rate 12-month change
Alabama 2.7% 3.6% -0.9%
Alaska 4.7% 6.8% -2.1%
Arizona 3.2% 5.4% -2.2%
Arkansas 3.2% 4.4% -1.2%
California 4.3% 7.9% -3.6%
Colorado 3.5% 5.8% -2.3%
Connecticut 4.2% 6.7% -2.5%
Delaware 4.5% 5.7% -1.2%
District of Columbia 5.7% 6.9% -1.2%
Florida 3.0% 4.9% -1.9%
Georgia 3.0% 4.1% -1.1%
Hawaii 4.2% 5.9% -1.7%
Idaho 2.5% 3.7% -1.2%
Illinois 4.6% 6.5% -1.9%
Indiana 2.2% 4.0% -1.8%
Iowa 2.7% 4.5% -1.8%
Kansas 2.3% 3.4% -1.1%
Kentucky 3.8% 4.7% -0.9%
Louisiana 4.0% 5.9% -1.9%
Maine 3.2% 4.9% -1.7%
Maryland 4.0% 5.7% -1.7%
Massachusetts 3.9% 5.9% -2.0%
Michigan 4.3% 6.2% -1.9%
Minnesota 2.0% 3.4% -1.4%
Mississippi 4.0% 6.0% -2.0%
Missouri 3.1% 4.5% -1.4%
Montana 2.4% 3.6% -1.2%
Nebraska 1.9% 2.5% -0.6%
Nevada 4.9% 7.8% -2.9%
New Hampshire 2.1% 3.7% -1.6%
New Jersey 3.9% 6.6% -2.7%
New Mexico 5.1% 7.2% -2.1%
New York 4.4% 7.4% -3.0%
North Carolina 3.4% 5.0% -1.6%
North Dakota 2.6% 3.8% -1.2%
Ohio 3.9% 5.4% -1.5%
Oklahoma 2.8% 4.4% -1.6%
Oregon 3.6% 5.6% -2.0%
Pennsylvania 4.6% 6.7% -2.1%
Rhode Island 2.9% 6.0% -3.1%
South Carolina 3.3% 4.1% -0.8%
South Dakota 2.3% 3.2% -0.9%
Tennessee 3.3% 4.6% -1.3%
Texas 4.2% 5.9% -1.7%
Utah 2.0% 2.8% -0.8%
Vermont 2.3% 3.6% -1.3%
Virginia 3.0% 4.1% -1.1%
Washington 3.9% 5.5% -1.6%
West Virginia 3.5% 5.4% -1.9%
Wisconsin 2.9% 4.1% -1.2%
Wyoming 3.2% 4.7% -1.5%
Puerto Rico 6.2% 8.1% -1.9%

States with the Highest Unemployment Rates

The record for the highest unemployment goes as usual to the two that are not really “states,” i.e., Puerto Rico and D.C. at 6.2% and 5.7%, respectively. Next comes New Mexico at 5.1%, Nevada at 4.9%, Alaska at 4.7%, Illinois and Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Delaware at 4.5%, New York at 4.4%, and California and Michigan tied for 10th worst place at 4.3%. [Read more…] about May 2022- Unemployment by State

May Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

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May 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 flat

 

  • Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.6% to 6.7%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% to 62.3%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.964 to 151.773 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined. Nonfarm employment is down by 822,000, or 0.5 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In May, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+84,000)… Employment in professional and business services increased by 75,000 in May… Transportation and warehousing added 47,000 jobs…”
You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”

But looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 150.938 million for April which they adjusted to 150.964 million. So they added 26,000 jobs disappeared for April. They are reporting 151.773 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 835,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 809,000 based on their updated numbers.

Surprisingly, Retail LOST -60,700 jobs.

According to Trading Economics:
The US unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent in May of 2022, the same as in the previous two months, remaining the lowest since February 2020 and compared with market expectations of 3.5 percent. The number of unemployed people increased by 9 thousand to 5.950 million, while employment levels rose by 321 thousand to 158.426 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.3 percent in May from a 3-month low of 62.2 percent in April.

Stroudsburg  PA News headline says “Lowest Unemployment Rate since 1969” … Umm No! Not really…  the article text backtracks a little adding the word “about” saying…  “about the lowest it has been since 1969.”  I suppose that is “almost true” if you disregard the 4 months in 2019 and 2020 when it was lower (i.e. 3.5%) and 3.6% is almost 3.4%. I guess that is what passes for journalism these days.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate

[Read more…] about May Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

April Unemployment Holds Steady

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April 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 flat

  • Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.1% to 6.6%
  • Labor Force Participation Down from 62.4% to 62.2%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 149. 912 to 150.938 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

      Nonfarm employment is down by 1.2 million, or 0.8 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

      In April, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+78,000), with gains in food services and drinking places (+44,000) and accommodation (+22,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.4 million, or 8.5 percent, from its February 2020 level.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”

Looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 149.938 million for March which they adjusted to 149.912 million. So 26,000 jobs disappeared for March. They are reporting 150.938 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of exactly 1,000,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,026,000 based on their updated numbers. 

According to Jeffrey Tucker at Gilder’s Daily Prophecy  “The jobs report this morning didn’t look half bad on the surface… The trouble was in the footnotes: The U.S. labor force shrank by 363,000 people in April from a month earlier… The labor force participation rate… ticked down to 62.2% in April from 62.4% in March.

So the dropout economy is getting worse, not better, rendering these unemployment numbers rather pointless… Women with kids have dropped out and child care is too expensive. Many men just moved home to mom and dad and are happy to live off savings and look forward to going into debt. Plus, the demoralization of the workforce after lockdowns has drained American ambition… In addition, wage growth is slowing, a fact which might cheer the Fed, but is bad news for workers because it means the purchasing power of their wages will fall further, after having endured a devastating hit over the last six months.

A former Fed official went public with a very obvious statement, namely that the federal funds rate needs to be 3.5% in order to even begin to make a dent in inflation.
How does Richard Clarida know this? It’s not rocket science: short-term rates need to be positive in real terms rather than negative. That means 3.5%, yes, but more likely double or triple that. The Fed simply won’t go there. The Fed’s theory is that it can put out the house fire by carefully spraying a bit of water here and there in a way that doesn’t cause shock and alarm.”

[Read more…] about April Unemployment Holds Steady

March 2022 Unemployment Not as Low as Expected

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March 2022 Unemployment Report Doesn’t Beat Expert’s Predictions

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  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.1% to 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.6% to 7.1%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.3% to 62.4%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 149.144 million to 149. 938 million

March 2022 Unemployment report:

Although MSNBC is touting it as a win, they admit that experts predicted 490,000 new jobs, but according to the BLS, we only got 431,000, so they could have just as easily spun this as a negative report. Instead, MSNBC gushes about the “new jobs” but then goes on to say, “the U.S. economy has now gained back roughly 93 percent of its pandemic job losses”.

As we’ve consistently pointed out, we are still below peak pre-covid employment levels. Although MSNBC says, “So far in 2022, the economy has created 1.69 million jobs”… we’re still below December 2021 levels… hmm I guess it depends on how you look at it. Unlike what you’d expect from a pandemic… since Covid started the U.S. population is up by 3.8 million, so we need to have more jobs just to be equal. In other words, population inflation does to jobs what monetary inflation does to the cost of living.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6 percent. Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Job growth averaged 562,000 per month in the first quarter of 2022, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021. However, Employment is down by 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent, from its February 2020 level before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported Employment of 148.964 million for February, which they adjusted to 149.144 million. So 18,000 jobs appeared for February. They are saying 149.938 million jobs for March, which is an increase of 974,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 794,000 based on their updated numbers.

[Read more…] about March 2022 Unemployment Not as Low as Expected

February Employment / Unemployment Report

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February 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.0% to 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.4% to 4.1%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.9% to 7.6%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% 62.3%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 147. 510 million to 148. 964 million

February 2022 Unemployment report:

AP says: Strong Job Growth Points to COVID’s Fading Grip on Economy “Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July, the Labor Department reported Friday.”

CNBC says: U.S. unemployment rate falls in February, but ticks up for Black women “The unemployment rate for Black women ticked up to 6.1% in February from 5.8% in the previous month.”

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent. Employment growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction. Employment is down by 2.1 million, or 1.4 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.

In February, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+179,000) with job gains in food services and drinking places (+124,000) and accommodation (+28,000). “

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 147.525 million for January which they adjusted to 147.510 million. So 15,000 jobs disappeared for January. But they are reporting 148.964 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 1,439,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,454,000 based on their updated numbers. 

[Read more…] about February Employment / Unemployment Report

January 2022 Unemployment Up not DOWN as Reported

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January 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

January 2022 Unemployment report

  • Adjusted U-3 was UP from 3.9% to 4.0%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.7% to 4.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 7.2% to 7.9%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 61.9% 62.2%
  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 150.349 million to 147. 525 million

January 2022 Unemployment report: Establishment news media chose to put a positive spin on this month’s Jobs report focusing on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 467,000 jobs number. U.S. News says, US Economy Defies Omicron and Adds 467,000 Jobs in January. Long-time readers of this site will remember that this is a Seasonally Adjusted number based on the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”. As we explain below, more people were NOT employed in January than in December all that the adjusted number indicates is that fewer people lost their jobs in January than in a typical January.  In actuality, there were 2.6 million fewer employed in January 2022 than in December 2021 and even the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate INCREASED from 3.9% to 4.0% while UNADJUSTED unemployment increased even more.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment has increased by 19.1 million since April 2020 but is down by 2.9 million, or 1.9 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020. Monthly job growth averaged 555,000 in 2021.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 150.170 million for December which they adjusted to 150.349 million. For January they are reporting 147.525 million.
which is actually a decrease of 2,645,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 2,824,000 based on their updated numbers. Typically January loses a significant number of jobs due to post-holiday layoffs so January employment decreases are not that unusual. But if we look at the adjusted numbers we see that even the seasonally adjusted unemployment was up suggesting that the layoff was a bit worse than usual.

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