unemployment

Unemployment Report for December 2025

January 10, 2026 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report
for December on January 9^th,2026.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.4% in December
Unadjusted U3- 4.1% down from 4.3% in November
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% down from 8.4% in November
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4%
Employment- 160.448 million in December
Employment- 160.640 million in November
Next data release February 6, 2026

Summary:

Despite Seasonally Adjusted BLS statements, if we look at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, Total Employed decreased in December, but Unadjusted and Adjusted Unemployment also decreased. Labor Force Participation was also down slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs…

Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)… Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. “

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 160.652 million for November,
which they adjusted slightly to 160.640 million jobs for November.

They are currently reporting 160.448 million jobs for December, which is actually a decrease of -204,000 jobs based on their original numbers.

The LFPR was down from 62.5% in November to 62.4% in December. [Read more…] about Unemployment Report for December 2025

Unemployment Report for Nov. 2025

December 17, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its delayed employment / unemployment report for November
on December 16^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.6% Up from 4.4% in September
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 8.4% Up from 7.7% in September
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5% Up from 62.4%
Employment- 160.411 million in October
Employment- 160.652 million in November
Next data release- January 9, 2026
October Unemployment Data not available due to gov’t shutdown

Summary:

Although unemployment information for October is not available Employmentdata was still collected. Total Employed increased in both October and November. Unadjusted Unemployment was 4.3% in both September and November, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased in November.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while the federal government continued to lose jobs…

Federal government employment continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 159.732 million for September.
They are currently reporting 160.411 million jobs for October and 160.652 million for November, which is actually an increase of 241,000 jobs from October to November. The LFPR was up from 62.4% in September to 62.5% in November.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.

September Unemployment Situation

October 3, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data regarding the Unemployment situation in September was not released on October 3^rd as scheduled due to the Federal Government shutdown.

Based on the alternative data from ADP we see:

According to ADP:

Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The numbers are released a few days before the BLS numbers and are often quite different.

Source: ADP®

ADP Private Employment by Establishment Size

Small to medium-sized companies shed employees in September. However, larger companies took up some of the slack by adding employees.

ADP Job Gainers / Losers

Drilling down a bit deeper, we can see that the largest gainer was Education and Health which makes sense with school going back in session and health always looking for more help. And the biggest loser isn’t surprising either as Leisure and Hospitality cuts back as the Summer winds down.

ADP Pay Insights

September pay gains were steady for job-stayers

Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed in September at 4.5 percent. Pay gains for job-changers slowed to 6.6 percent from 7.1 percent in August, led by leisure and hospitality and financial activities.

The Median Annual Pay for Job Stayers in September was $61,000.

Source: ADP

Read more on UnemploymentData.com.

From Financial Trend Forecaster

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June Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Down

July 4, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 3^rd,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from 4.2%
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% Up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U6- 8.1% Up from 7.4% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.3% Down from 62.4%
Employment- 160.475 million Up from 159.958 million
Next data release August 1, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in June, Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was down, but Unadjusted Unemployment increased. Economists were predicting a bad report, but a superficial look makes this appear to be a good report. This shocked the legacy media, thinking that it turned out better than expected. But a deeper look shows cracks appearing. Wages pretty much across the board fell, with average weekly earnings down slightly. And U6 unadjusted unemployment went up from 7.4% to 8.1% and U3 unadjusted unemployment went up from 4.0% to 4.4%. Typically, June unemployment increases due to students entering the workforce, but…

According to ADP the economy lost -33,000 jobs…

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024…”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.964 million for May
which they adjusted slightly to 159.958 million in July.

They are currently reporting 160.475 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 511,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 517,000 based on their new May numbers. The LFPR decreased from 62.4% to 62.3%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.6% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.

May Employment Nothing Burger

June 6, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 6^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Unchanged
Unadjusted U3- 4.0% Up from 3.9% in April
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Up from 7.3% in April
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.4% Down from 62.6%
Employment- 159.964 million Up from 159.238 million
Next data release July 3^rd, 2025

Summary:

Although Total Employed increased slightly in May, and Unadjusted Unemployment was up slightly, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment stayed exactly the same indicating that although unemployment increased it was typical for the month of May. And unemployment has been in a narrow range for an entire year.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million, changed little over the month…

In May, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 59.7 percent. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4 percent.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.316 million for April
which they adjusted slightly to 159.238 million in June.

They are currently reporting 159.964 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of +648,000 jobs based on their original numbers or +726,000 jobs based on their new adjusted numbers. The LFPR was lower at 62.4%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.7% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.8% above the January and April lows of 2023.

March 2025- Employment / Unemployment Report

April 5, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 4^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from 4.1%
Unadjusted U3- 4.2% Down from 4.5% in February
Unadjusted U6- 7.9% Down from 8.4% in February
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5% Up from 62.4%
Employment- 158.506 million Up from 157.950 million
Next data release May 2^nd, 2025

Summary:

The total number of Employed increased in March, and Unadjusted Unemployment was down but Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was up.

So although Unadjusted Unemployment fell sharply from 4.5% to 4.2% Adjusted Unemployment rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, higher than the average monthly gain of 158,000 over the prior 12 months. In March, job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined.

Health care added 54,000 jobs in March, in line with the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months.

Retail trade added 24,000 jobs in March, as workers returning from a strike contributed to a job gain in food and beverage retailers (+21,000).

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000 in March, about double the prior 12-month average gain of 12,000.

Within government, federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.983 million for February
which they adjusted slightly to 157.950 million.

They are currently reporting 158.506 million jobs for March which is actually an increase of 523,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up from 62.4% to 62.5%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.2%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good” it is still lower than the lowest achieved in 2006-2007.

December 2024 Unemployment Report

January 11, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from November
Unadjusted U3- 3.8% Down from November
Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Unchanged
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% Unchanged
Employment 160.458 million Down from 160.539 million
Next data release February 7^th, 2025

Summary:
Total Employed Decreased in December, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment decreased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.

The unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent in December. After increasing earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has been either 4.1 percent or 4.2 percent for the past 7 months. The number of unemployed people, at 6.9 million, also changed little in December.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.560 million for November
which they adjusted to 160.539 million this month.

They are currently reporting 160.458 million jobs for December which is actually a decrease of -102,000 jobs based on their original numbers. Or -81,000 jobs based on their revised numbers.

The LFPR was unchanged at 62.5%.

Bad News or Good News?

Once again, the perverse nature of the stock market showed its ugly head. The market took the BLS report as good enough to generate fear that the FED won’t cut rates again soon. So, the NYSE lost 547.73 points or 2.8%. This brought the market back down to the lows of December 19, 2024.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment has risen 0.7 percentage points since the lows of 2023. At 4.1%, unemployment is no longer in the “Excellent” range but still in the “Very Good” range.

October 2024 Employment / Unemployment Report

November 2, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1^st,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% Unchanged from September
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% down from September
Employment 160.007 million up from 159.181 million
Next data release December 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased very slightly in October, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment was unchanged. Virtually everything was unchanged except LFPR fell by 0.1%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity…

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

So, for the month little changed, but on a year-over-year basis the economy is worse with more unemployed people.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.177 million for September
which they adjusted slightly to 159.181 million in November.

They are currently reporting 160.007 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 83,000 jobs over their initial numbers or 82,600 over their revised numbers. The LFPR was down slightly from 62.7% to 62.6%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market initially rallied but lost steam mid-day and ended up down for the day. As we said last month, “the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.” Despite a rally in-between, the NYSE is roughly at the same place it was on August 30^th.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.7% above the January and April lows of 2023.

Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but then returned to the “excellent” range.

At 4.1% it is no longer “Excellent” but still in the “Very Good” range.

Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

October 9, 2024 by Tim McMahon

In a recent article published by The Epoch Times, Jeffrey A. Tucker founder of the Brownstone Institute wrote an article examining the BLS’ glowing September 2024 Unemployment report. According to the BLS Unemployment fell significantly in September and the media rejoiced in this report without delving into the actual details.

But as Jeffrey dug deeper, he found some strange anomalies. As we do, he examined both the establishment payroll numbers and compared them to the Household Survey numbers. But Jeffrey also looked at the types of jobs, part-time or full-time, foreign-born or U.S. born, and government vs. private sector jobs. [Read more…] about Can We Trust the September Unemployment Numbers?

September Jobs Report

October 5, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 4^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% down from 4.2% in August
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% down from 4.4%
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% down from 8.0%
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 159.177 million up from 158.717 million
Next data release November 1^st, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in September, Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were both down.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in September. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. “

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.650 million for August
which they adjusted slightly to 158.717 million in September.

They are currently reporting 159.177 million jobs for September which is actually an increase of 527,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 46,000 based on their new numbers. The LFPR was unchanged at 62.7%.

Good News for the Market?

The stock market responded slightly favorably with the NYSE up 0.78%. But the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, and is approaching the yellow zone.