U-6

January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

February 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

January Unemployment is almost record setting… but not for the reason you might think.

On Friday February 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of January. According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for January is unchanged for the almost record setting 4th month in a row. That’s right from October through January the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower but the interesting part is that the unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% from October through December (resulting in the adjusted rate being 4.1%) but then in January the unadjusted rate jumped to 4.5% (a 0.6% increase) and the adjusted U-3 remained the same at 4.1%. This is because typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick in unadjusted unemployment rate. But because the Seasonally Adjusted U3 was unchanged for the month the current increase in the unadjusted U-3 was actually no greater or less than normal. See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

U-6 Unemployment

Over the same period, Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment including discouraged workers, climbed steadily.

It was 7.6% in October, then 7.7% in November, then 8.0% in December, and finally 8.9% in January.

This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and had climbed to 10.1% by January 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has decreased by [Read more…] about January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

August 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

U-3 Unemployment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment and unemployment numbers for July on Friday August 4^th. The Seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate was down from 4.4% in June to 4.3% in July. Unadjusted U-3 however was up from 4.5% to 4.6%. U3 is the Official unemployment rate per the International Labor Organization definition. It occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.

U-6 Unemployment

U-6 unemployment is the broadest category of unemployment and includes U3 plus “discouraged workers”, plus other “marginally attached workers”, plus part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons. U-6 was unchanged from June at 8.9%.

Employment

The Commissioner of the BLS released this statement, “Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, was little changed. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000). “

However if we look at the actual employment data we get a different picture. [Read more…] about 1 Million Fewer Jobs but BLS Says 209 K More

Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”?

January 6, 2017 by Tim McMahon

Back in February of 2016 Fortune magazine published an article entitled “The U.S. Economy Is Finally at Full Employment” and then in May CNN-Money published an article entitled The U.S. is ‘basically at full employment’ quoting San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams as saying “We’re basically at full employment…that’s very good news.”

“We’re basically at full employment…that’s very good news.” San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams

So what is “Full-Employment” and are we really there? At first glance you might think that full employment should equal 0% and with the current unemployment rate hovering around 4.7% we obviously aren’t there. But Full employment, in macroeconomics, is defined by many economists as being an acceptable level of unemployment somewhere above 0%.

Even when employers are having difficulty finding employees some people are [Read more…] about Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”?