U-6

Employment Up by a Half-Million in a Typically Bad Month

August 8, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Typically July is one of the worst months for employment second only to January. But this obviously isn’t a typical year.

More than a Half-Million People Return to Work in July as COVID restrictions relax.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 7^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 11.2% to 10.5%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 11.1% to 10.2%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 18.3% to 16.8%!
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.5% to 61.4%.
Unadjusted Employment up from 138.509 to 139.100 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Non-farm payroll employment increased by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In July, employment rose in several major industries, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, other services, and health care.”

“The rate of recovery in the labor market slowed in July, as job growth over the month was less than half that for June. As of July, total non-farm employment is 12.9 million, or 8.4 percent, lower than in February, before the pandemic crisis unfolded in many parts of the United States. Similarly, although unemployment continued to fall in July, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed people are up by 6.7 percentage points and 10.6 million, respectively, since February.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 138.513 million jobs for June, they subtracted 4,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 138.509 million jobs for June and 139.100 million jobs for July which is an increase of 591,000 jobs based on their updated estimates.

Over 5 Million More Jobs in June

July 2, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 2^nd.

More than 5 million People Return to Work in June as COVID restrictions relax.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 13.0% to 11.2%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 13.3% to 11.1%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 20.7% to 18.3%!
Labor Force Participation rose from 60.8% to 61.5%.
Unadjusted Employment up by approx. 5.1 million jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In June, employment continued to rise in several major industry sectors, with the largest gain in leisure and hospitality. Notable gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 133.342 million jobs for May and then in June, they added 68,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 133.410 million jobs for May and 138.513 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 5.171 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month or 5.103 million increase based on their updated estimates.

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

March 7, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 6th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate fell from 3.6% in January to 3.5% in February. Thus returning to the previous low levels of September, November, and December after increasing slightly in January.
We are still in record low territory and that won’t change overnight. Seasonally adjusted U-3 Unemployment notched up 1/10^th of a percent in January and fell back the same amount in February. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remains in territory that it hasn’t seen in years…

This is better than expected results and according to @AP News it shows that “the economy was in strong shape before the coronavirus began to sweep
through the U.S. “

The average monthly wage is up almost $130 over year-ago levels so two-income families are bringing in an average of at least $250 a month more. (See employment by Sector for more info).

This month we will also look at unemployment by Education level, and reasons for unemployment.

February Jobs Report Smashes Expectations

Unadjusted U-3 was down from 4.0% to 3.8%!
Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-6 was down from 7.7% to 7.4%!
Labor Force Participation remains at the highest level since 2013.
Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 880,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent.
Notable employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.”

But, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 150.102 million jobs for January and then they added 15,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 150.117 million jobs for January and 150.997 million jobs for February
which is actually an increase of 895,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month and 880,000 more than current estimates for last month.

Of course, the Corona Virus scare is affecting the Stock Market as the AP news was quick to point out. So March numbers may be affected by that.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

December Jobs Report Not “Disappointing”

January 11, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10^th.

CNBC was quick to label it “disappointing” but at 1/10^th of a percent off a 50 year low how disappointing can it really be? The unadjusted numbers were up slightly but that isn’t unusual for December and they weren’t even up by as much as they were last year. In December 2018 the unadjusted U-6 went from 7.2% to 7.5% (i.e. 0.3%). This year it went from 6.5% to 6.7% (up 0.2%). Last year the unadjusted U-3 went from 3.5% to 3.7% (up 0.2%) this year it went from 3.3% to 3.4% (up 0.1%). Last year the adjusted U-3 went from 3.7% to 3.9%. This year it went from… wait for it… 3.5% to 3.5%… what? Yes, it was unchanged. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment is exactly the same as last month (i.e. one of the best months in recorded history). What about Labor Force Participation? Unchanged at 63.2%… slightly off recent highs of 63.3% which it reached in October. The only “fly in the ointment” was actual unadjusted employment which was down slightly while adjusted Employment was still up by 145,000.

December Jobs Report

Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.5%!
Unadjusted U-3 was up slightly from 3.3% to 3.4%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.5% to 6.7%
Labor Force Participation was unchanged at 63.2%.
Unadjusted Employment down slightly while adjusted Employment was up by 145,000.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent. Notable employment gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs. In 2019, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1 million, compared with a gain of 2.7 million in 2018.

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

This was not a bad jobs report!

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

May Unemployment Still Low

June 8, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for May on June 7^th. Although Unemployment is still at record lows job creation is less than expected.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The U.S. economy created 75,000 jobs in May and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent. However, economists projected a 175,000 jobs gain and instead only got 75,000 so they were disappointed but that didn’t stop the stock market with the DOW gaining over 1% in a single day.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent.
Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care…
In May, 4.4 million people were working part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers),
down by 299,000 from the previous month and by 565,000 over the year.”

Key factors in the report were:
Employment in professional and business services increased by 33,000…
Health Care employment rose by 16,000…
Construction employment increased by 4,000…
Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment remains at its lowest rate since December 1969.

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. In unadjusted terms April had 150.942 million jobs and May had 151.629 million for an actual increase of 687,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.6% unchanged from April
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.4% up from 3.3% in April but down from 3.9% in March and 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 6.7% down from 6.9% in April and 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.629 million up from 150.988 million in April, 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.8% unchanged from April.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 to find lower levels and remember that was during the boom that followed WWII with a massive loss of the workforce due to the war so we probably won’t see levels that low again.

March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

April 6, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for March on April 5^th and it has the market pundits celebrating. Last month they worried over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs.

This month once again the projections were for 175,000 new jobs but the BLS says there were 195,000 new jobs so the market is happy.

As we said in the Current Unemployment Chart commentary:

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services… The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March and has been either 60.6 percent or 60.7 percent since October 2018… Health care added 49,000 jobs in March and 398,000 over the past 12 months… Employment in professional and technical services grew by 34,000 in March and 311,000 over the past 12 months. “

Key factors in the report were the unemployment rate for Women dropped to another mega low of 3.3% from 3.6% last month.
Black unemployment was 6.7% and Hispanic Unemployment was 4.7%.

Last month the media was unpleasantly surprised by the Jobs report being lower than the consensus and this month they were pleasantly surprised by the higher than expected jobs. “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected that the jobs report would show solid growth by 175,000 jobs” but instead the report showed 196,000 “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs created, “making March the 102nd straight month of job growth”. In unadjusted terms February had 149.867 million jobs while March had 149.133 million jobs for an actual increase of 724,000 jobs.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.8% unchanged from February but down from 4.0% in January, and 3.9% in December.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January, but above the 3.7% in December.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.5% down from 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.867 up from 149.143 in February and 148.295 million in January.
February Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.0% down from the peak of 63.2% in February, and 63.1% in December.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

March 9, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for February on March 8^th and it has the market pundits wringing their hands over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs. Optimists are blaming the government shutdown combined with the weather causing a lack of construction jobs in the Seasonally Adjusted jobs numbers.

But if job creation is only 20,000 why is Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment down from 8.8% in January to 7.7% in February? Why has the unemployment rate for Hispanics dropped to another mega low of 4.3%? And why is the unemployment rate for Women 3.6%?

The non-seasonally adjusted jobs number is up by 827,000 jobs from January to February compared to an increase of 1.237 million during the same period last year and an increase of 1.03 million from January – February 2017. So, yes the increase is considerably smaller but as we near full employment it becomes progressively harder to find new employees even if you have jobs available. The problem shifts from a lack of jobs to a lack of qualified employees.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.8% down from 4.0% in January, 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.4% in January, 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.7% down from 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.133 up from 148.201 million in January, 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
February Labor Force Participation Rate- Unchanged at 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9% highest since 2013.
101st straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment- (Household Survey) 156.949 up from 156.694 in January

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

October Employment Hits New Record High

November 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for October on November 2^nd. Unadjusted U-3 and U-6 Unemployment is down again and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 was 3.7% for the second month in a row. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when it was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Employment is at an all time record 150.753 million the previous high was set in June 2018. Last month employment was 149.738 million so the actual increase in jobs was over 1 million, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 250,000. Even that was significantly higher than the projected 208,000.

Previous Record Low Unemployment

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Key October Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged from September down from 3.9% in August.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.0% down from 7.1% in September and 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
Employment 150.753 million up from 149.741 million in September. (Yes over a Million more jobs!)
October Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

The Differential between U3 and U6 Remains Near September 2006 Lows

Last month the differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) was at 3.5% and remains there for the 3rd month in a row.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about October Employment Hits New Record High

May Unemployment Lowest Since 2000

June 2, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of May on Friday June 1^st .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is at a new low. Unemployment has been falling and has now reached levels not seen since April of 2000. Current levels are even lower than during the boom of 2006. If they drop another 1/10^th of a percent we will have to go all the way back to 1969 to find levels that low.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable. See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.8% Down from 3.9% in April and 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.6% down from 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- May 7.3% Down from 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.309 million up from 148.367 million in April and 147.369 million in March.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below only one sector is to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees except Utilities which lost -1,100 employees. The big gainers were Education and Health, Professional and business Services, Construction, Leisure and Manufacturing.

The biggest gainer was Education and Health Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 39,000+ jobs, followed by Retail and Professional Services which each gained roughly 31,000 jobs, Leisure gained 21,000 jobs and manufacturing gained another 18,000 on top of consistently high gains for the last few months. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased to $928.74.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

May 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	218,000	$928.74	126,336,000
Mining and Logging	4,000	$1,500.09	733,000
Construction	25,000	$1,174.14	7,210,000
Manufacturing	18,000	$1,097.52	12,673,000
Wholesale trade	4,200	$1,189.81	5,954,800
Retail trade	31,100	$579.70	15,970,300
Transportation and Warehousing	18,700	$940.41	5,309,300
Utilities	-1,100	$1,689.89	554,400
Information	6,000	$1,418.40	2,775,000
Financial Activities	8,000	$1,303.88	8,559,000
Professional and Business Services	31,000	$1,164.92	20,891,000
Education and Health Services	39,000	$887.70	23,563,000
Leisure and Hospitality	21,000	$413.95	16,281,000
Other Services	13,000	$772.53	5,862,000

February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

March 10, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday March 9^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of February.

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for February is unchanged for the 5th month in a row. That’s right from October through February the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%.

This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% down from 4.5% January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.6% down from 8.9% in January.
Employment 146.696 million up from 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below the only sector to the left of the zero line is Information meaning that all other sectors gained employees in February except information which lost -12,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainer was construction (bubble furthest to the right) which added 61,000 jobs, followed by Retail Trade which gained 50,300 jobs and Professional and Business Services which gained 50,000 jobs even manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs. (See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

February 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	287,000	$922.88	125,819,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,485.78	713,000
Construction	61,000	$1,158.17	7,173,000
Manufacturing	31,000	$1,100.03	12,614,000
Wholesale trade	5,800	$1,185.12	5,956,200
Retail trade	50,300	$572.55	15,926,200
Transportation and Warehousing	15,400	$940.60	5,263,400
Utilities	1,200	$1,658.82	553,400
Information	-12,000	$1,418.40	2,748,000
Financial Activities	28,000	$1,290.81	8,547,000
Professional and Business Services	50,000	$1,161.30	20,760,000
Education and Health Services	23,000	$882.75	23,466,000
Leisure and Hospitality	16,000	$410.81	16,262,000
Other Services	10,000	$768.73	5,837,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 10.1% in January to 9.5% in 2017 and from 8.9% to 8.6% in 2018.

From the table at the left we can also see that U-6 unemployment went from 9.2% in October 2016 to 7.6% in 2017.

Similarly it fell from 9.0% in November 2016 to 7.7% in 2017 and from 9.1% in December 2016 to 8.0% in 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by [Read more…] about February Employment UP – Unemployment Down