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You are here: Home / Archives for Seasonally Adjusted

Seasonally Adjusted

March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

April 6, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Adjusted U3 UnemploymentThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for March on April 5th and it has the market pundits celebrating. Last month they worried over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs.

This month once again the projections were for 175,000 new jobs but the BLS says there were 195,000 new jobs so the market is happy.

As we said in the Current Unemployment Chart commentary:

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services… The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March and has been either 60.6 percent or 60.7 percent since October 2018… Health care added 49,000 jobs in March and 398,000 over the past 12 months… Employment in professional and technical services grew by 34,000 in March and 311,000 over the past 12 months. “

Key factors in the report were the unemployment rate for Women dropped to another mega low of 3.3% from 3.6% last month.
Black unemployment was 6.7% and Hispanic Unemployment was 4.7%.

Last month the media was unpleasantly surprised by the Jobs report being lower than the consensus and this month they were pleasantly surprised by the higher than expected jobs. “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected that the jobs report would show solid growth by 175,000 jobs”  but instead the report showed 196,000 “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs created, “making March the 102nd straight month of job growth”. In unadjusted terms February had 149.867 million jobs while March had 149.133 million jobs for an actual increase of 724,000 jobs.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.8% unchanged from February but down from 4.0% in January, and 3.9% in December.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  3.9% down from 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January, but above the 3.7% in December.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  7.5% down from 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December.
  • Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.867 up from 149.143 in February and 148.295 million in January.
  • February Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.0% down from the peak of 63.2% in February, and 63.1% in December.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, Bubble Chart, Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment, Employment by Sector, Labor Force, Labor Force Participation, Labor Force Participation Rate, Seasonally Adjusted, U-6, unemployment

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

December 8, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Seasonally Adjusted U-3 UnemploymentThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for November on December 7th. Unadjusted U-3 and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 were unchanged. Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% for the third month in a row while unadjusted was 3.5% for the second month. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when Adjusted U-3 was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Remember that the world population had just been drastically reduced through WWII (ending in 1945) so there were much fewer working age men available. So it is unlikely that we will see unemployment at 1953 levels again.

 

Key November Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.7% unchanged since September down from 3.9% in August, This is the lowest Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate since 1969.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  3.5% unchanged from October down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  7.2% up from 7.0% in October and 7.1% in September still below the 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
  • Employment 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. (475,000 more jobs)
  • November Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% unchanged from October but up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

 

Previous Record Low Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1950 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3%
1951 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%
1952 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7%
1953 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 4.5%
1954 4.9% 5.2% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 5.7% 5.3% 5.0%
… … … … … … … … … … … … …
1965 4.9% 5.1% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0%
1966 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8%
1967 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%
1968 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
1969 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
1970 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 6.1%

 

Employment

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner’s report:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.
Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.”

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

The stock market is fretting because projections called for an increase of 195,000 (seasonally adjusted jobs) and we “only” got 155,000 but Employment is at a new all time record 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. The previous high was set in June 2018 at 150.040 million. So, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 155,000 there were 475,000 more actual jobs.

Incidentally, last month adjusted jobs exceeded projections by almost exactly the same amount as they fell short this month. So one could argue that the two month increase is exactly on projection.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below  [Read more…] about November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: Bubbles, employment, November, Seasonally Adjusted, unemployment

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