The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1st, 2024.
Employment / Unemployment
- Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Unchanged from September
- Unadjusted U3- 3.9% Unchanged from September
- Unadjusted U6- 7.3% Unchanged from September
- Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% down from September
- Employment 160.007 million up from 159.181 million
- Next data release December 6th, 2024
Summary:
Total Employed increased very slightly in October, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment was unchanged. Virtually everything was unchanged except LFPR fell by 0.1%.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity…
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million.”
You can read the full BLS report here.
So, for the month little changed, but on a year-over-year basis the economy is worse with more unemployed people.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.177 million for September
which they adjusted slightly to 159.181 million in November.
They are currently reporting 160.007 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 83,000 jobs over their initial numbers or 82,600 over their revised numbers. The LFPR was down slightly from 62.7% to 62.6%.
Bad News for the Market?
The stock market initially rallied but lost steam mid-day and ended up down for the day. As we said last month, “the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.” Despite a rally in-between, the NYSE is roughly at the same place it was on August 30th.
Current Unemployment Rate Chart
As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.7% above the January and April lows of 2023.
Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but then returned to the “excellent” range.
At 4.1% it is no longer “Excellent” but still in the “Very Good” range.
[Read more…] about October 2024 Employment / Unemployment Report