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November Unemployment Report

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 6th, 2024.

Employment / Unemployment 

Adj U3 Unemployment 4.2%

  • Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from October
  • Unadjusted U3- 4.0% Up from October
  • Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Up from October
  • Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% down from October
  • Employment 160.560 million up from 160.035 million
  • Next data release January 3rd, 2025

 

Summary:
Total Employed increased in November, but Unemployment increased. Labor Force Participation fell by 0.1%.  In the perversity of markets, overall, the report was sufficiently bad to give the market hope for another rate cut by the FED.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in November. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.007 million for October
which they adjusted slightly to 160.035 million.

They are currently reporting 160.560 million jobs for November which is actually an increase of 525,000 jobs based on the new numbers or 553,000 based on the original numbers. The LFPR was down from 62.6% to 62.5%.

Bad News is Good News?

Once again, the stock market took the report as bad enough to generate hope that the FED will cut rates again soon but not so bad to wreck the economy.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, over the last year unemployment has risen 0.8% from the lows of 2023. At 4.2% unemployment is no longer in the “Excellent” range but still in the “Very Good” range.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate Nov 2024

 

[Read more…] about November Unemployment Report

November Jobs Report

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Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

Current U-3 Unemployment Rate

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 154.416 million to 154.990
  • Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.2% to 62.1%
  • Adjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.3% to 6.4%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 2nd.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in
transportation and warehousing. The November gain in nonfarm payroll employment was roughly in line with average growth over the prior 3 months (+282,000). Monthly job growth thus far in 2022 has averaged 392,000, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.369 million for October, which they adjusted up to 154.416 million. So, 47,000 additional jobs appeared for October.

November gained an additional 574,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.990 million.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP, in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 127,000 jobs in November

  • Job creation slowed by the most since January 2021, led by construction and other interest rate-sensitive sectors. Consumer-facing segments – including health care and hospitality – were bright spots.

ADP Economist

 

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Last month (October) ADP posted these changes…

For November, the numbers definitely look worse, with virtually all the gains in mid-sized companies. People are becoming more risk-averse, so fewer small companies are being started. At some point, when jobs are scarce, starting your own business becomes the only option, so small company creation increases again. :

ADP Change by Establishment Size

 

November 2022 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

In November, Leisure and Hospitality, Education, Construction, Manufacturing, and “Other” were the big gainers, while Retail was the big loser.

Average Weekly Wages Rose

$1,129.01 in November, $1,124.01 in October , $1,119.87 in September, $1116.42 in August, $1,116.54 in July, $1,106.76, in June, $1,105.47 in May and $1,102.01 in April, and $1,086.46 in December 2021. Surprisingly, Retail was the big loser, which is unusual for this time of year.  [Read more…] about November Jobs Report

November Jobs Up But…

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November 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.3% to 3.9%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.6% to 4.2%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.7% to 7.4%
  • Labor Force Participation Up 61.6% to 61.8%
  • Unadjusted employment rose from 149.226 million to 150.004 million

Although November’s job numbers are generally an improvement over October, Bloomberg called them”weird” and “the smallest jobs gain this year”.  This jobs report is so weird because retail employment is DOWN by -20,400 in a month, known for increased retail employment. Market commentators are also blaming the Jobs report for Friday’s market drop.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES).”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 149.217 million for October, which they adjusted to 149.226 million. For November, they are reporting 150.004 million,
which is an increase of 787,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 778,000 based on their updated numbers.

[Read more…] about November Jobs Up But…

Employment Increased by 1/2 Million in November

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Adj U3 Icon 6-7

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 4th.

  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.6% to 6.4%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.9% to 6.7%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 11.6%
  • Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.5%
  • Unadjusted Employment up from 143.488 million to 144.005 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID- 19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months.”

Of course, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 143.459 million jobs for October, this month they only adjusted that slightly.
So currently they are saying 143.488 million jobs for October and 144.005 million for November.
which is actually an increase of  546,000 jobs based on their original estimates.

 

[Read more…] about Employment Increased by 1/2 Million in November

November Unemployment- Another Banner Month

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current unemployment rateThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 6th.

Unemployment returns to 50-year lows. The “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for November fell from 3.6% in October to 3.5% despite the media’s narrative that many employers are either delaying hiring until a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade war is reached.

November Jobs Report Smashes Expectations Again

  • Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.3%!
  • Adjusted U-3 was down slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%!
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Unchanged at 6.5%!
  • Labor Force Participation retreated slightly from 63.3% to 63.2%.
  • Unadjusted Employment Up by approx. 660,000 jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in November, and the unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, was little changed. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Manufacturing employment increased as workers in motor vehicles and parts returned from a strike. Employment in health care increased by 45,000… Employment rose by 31,000 in professional and technical services…  Employment in leisure and hospitality +45,000… Employment in transportation and warehousing +16,000… Employment in financial activities +13,000…

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
Originally the BLS reported 152,962 million jobs for October and they added 40,000 jobs to that estimate. Currently they are estimating 153.624 million jobs for November which is an increase of 662,000 jobs over what they originally reported last month. So what he is actually saying is that there were 266,000 more jobs created in November than is normal for this time of year!

Returning striking General Motors autoworkers added about 30,000 jobs in November, a one-time bounce-back that followed a 30,000 decline in October, when the GM strikers weren’t counted as employed. But even without that 30,000 Manufacturing still added 24,000 additional jobs! 

Just days ago, the media and Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi were trying to paint a grim picture for the economy. Zandi told CNBC there was trouble brewing in the jobs market “Manufacturers, commodity producers and retailers are shedding jobs. Job openings are declining, and if job growth slows any further unemployment will increase.”
Instead of a Decrease in jobs we got a massive INCREASE. And the futures market spiked upward on the good news.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary.

 

[Read more…] about November Unemployment- Another Banner Month

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

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Seasonally Adjusted U-3 UnemploymentThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for November on December 7th. Unadjusted U-3 and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 were unchanged. Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% for the third month in a row while unadjusted was 3.5% for the second month. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when Adjusted U-3 was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Remember that the world population had just been drastically reduced through WWII (ending in 1945) so there were much fewer working age men available. So it is unlikely that we will see unemployment at 1953 levels again.

 

Key November Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.7% unchanged since September down from 3.9% in August, This is the lowest Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate since 1969.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  3.5% unchanged from October down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  7.2% up from 7.0% in October and 7.1% in September still below the 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
  • Employment 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. (475,000 more jobs)
  • November Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% unchanged from October but up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

 

Previous Record Low Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1950 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3%
1951 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%
1952 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7%
1953 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 4.5%
1954 4.9% 5.2% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 5.7% 5.3% 5.0%
… … … … … … … … … … … … …
1965 4.9% 5.1% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0%
1966 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8%
1967 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%
1968 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
1969 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
1970 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 6.1%

 

Employment

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner’s report:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.
Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.”

November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

The stock market is fretting because projections called for an increase of 195,000 (seasonally adjusted jobs) and we “only” got 155,000 but Employment is at a new all time record 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. The previous high was set in June 2018 at 150.040 million. So, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 155,000 there were 475,000 more actual jobs.

Incidentally, last month adjusted jobs exceeded projections by almost exactly the same amount as they fell short this month. So one could argue that the two month increase is exactly on projection.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below  [Read more…] about November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…

November Unemployment Rate Flat

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the November Unemployment figures on December 5th. The Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 5.8% the same as the October. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate was also flat at 5.5% for November.

BLS_vs_Gallup_Unemployment_2_Nov2014Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the independently generated Gallup numbers. This is no surprise, based on the long-term comparison between the BLS numbers and the Gallup numbers the BLS numbers consistently present a rosier picture than the Gallup numbers do.

According to surveys by [Read more…] about November Unemployment Rate Flat