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March 2022 Unemployment Not as Low as Expected

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March 2022 Unemployment Report Doesn’t Beat Expert’s Predictions

Adj U3 Icon 3-6

  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.1% to 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.6% to 7.1%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.3% to 62.4%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 149.144 million to 149. 938 million

March 2022 Unemployment report:

Although MSNBC is touting it as a win, they admit that experts predicted 490,000 new jobs, but according to the BLS, we only got 431,000, so they could have just as easily spun this as a negative report. Instead, MSNBC gushes about the “new jobs” but then goes on to say, “the U.S. economy has now gained back roughly 93 percent of its pandemic job losses”.

As we’ve consistently pointed out, we are still below peak pre-covid employment levels. Although MSNBC says, “So far in 2022, the economy has created 1.69 million jobs”… we’re still below December 2021 levels… hmm I guess it depends on how you look at it. Unlike what you’d expect from a pandemic… since Covid started the U.S. population is up by 3.8 million, so we need to have more jobs just to be equal. In other words, population inflation does to jobs what monetary inflation does to the cost of living.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6 percent. Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing.

Job growth averaged 562,000 per month in the first quarter of 2022, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021. However, Employment is down by 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent, from its February 2020 level before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”.

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported Employment of 148.964 million for February, which they adjusted to 149.144 million. So 18,000 jobs appeared for February. They are saying 149.938 million jobs for March, which is an increase of 974,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 794,000 based on their updated numbers.

[Read more…] about March 2022 Unemployment Not as Low as Expected

March Employment Tops 147 Million

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Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of March on Friday April 6th .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is unchanged for the 6th month in a row. So from October through March the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This month the unadjusted U-3 was also 4.1%.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable.  See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.4% February.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.1% down from 8.6% in February.
  • Employment 147,332 million up from 146.667 million in February and 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
  • Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below three sectors are to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees in March except Construction which lost -15,000 employees, Retail which lost -4,400 employees, and “Other Services” which lost -1,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

Employment by SectorThe biggest gainer was Professional and Business Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 33,000 jobs, followed by Education and Health Services which gained 25,000 jobs and Manufacturing which gained 22,000 jobs on top of last months 31,000 manufacturing jobs gained. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased from $922.88 to $925.29.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

 

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

  • Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
  • Average Weekly earnings.
  • The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
  • The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

  • Total Employment for the sector.
  • Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

March  2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry Monthly Increase Average Weekly Earnings Employment Level
Total Private Employment 102,000 $925.29 125,904,000
Mining and Logging 8,000 $1,501.44 722,000
Construction -15,000 $1,153.66 7,150,000
Manufacturing 22,000 $1,098.57 12,632,000
Wholesale trade 11,400 $1,178.97 5,967,300
Retail trade -4,400 $576.58 15,915,900
Transportation and Warehousing 9,800 $942.35 5,279,300
Utilities 4,000 $1,674.74 559,000
Information 2,000 $1,410.43 2,760,000
Financial Activities 2,000 $1,297.20 8,546,000
Professional and Business Services 33,000 $1,162.42 20,803,000
Education and Health Services 25,000 $882.38 23,483,000
Leisure and Hospitality 5,000 $412.64 16,256,000
Other Services -1,000 $770.31 5,830,000

U-6 Unemployment

U3 vs U6 UnemploymentLooking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 8.9% in January to 8.6% in February and fell further to 8.1% in March.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by 665,000  jobs in March. The BLS Commissioner said:“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000)… 

Historical Employment

Over the month, job gains occurred in manufacturing, health care, and mining… Manufacturing employment rose by 22,000… Employment in health care increased by 22,000 in March and has grown by 304,000 over the year…. Mining employment rose by 9,000… Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in March (+33,000). Over the year, employment in the industry has increased by 502,000, with gains distributed across most of the component industries.” [Read more…] about March Employment Tops 147 Million

March 2015 Unemployment Flat

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Unemployment figures on Friday April 3rd. According to the BLS the Current Unemployment Rate (Seasonally adjusted) for March was 5.5% unchanged from February. The Unadjusted Unemployment rate however fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. However, according to Gallup the Unadjusted Unemployment rate was actually 6.5% and the U-6 unemployment rate was 15.6% down from 16.1% in February.

Unemployment Numbers According to Gallup

 

Unadjusted U-3 Unadjusted U-6
BLS 5.6% 11.0%
Gallup 6.5% 15.6%
Difference 0.9% 4.7%

Once again the BLS numbers are quite a bit different than the [Read more…] about March 2015 Unemployment Flat