LFPR

January Employment the Good and Bad

February 2, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for January on February 1^st. “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 is 4.0% up from 3.9% in December. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it stayed at 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It bounced between 3.8% and 4.0% from April through August 2018 before falling to 3.7% in September – November. So unemployment is currently at the same level as it was from April through August 2018.

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% up from 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.8% up from 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
Unadjusted Employment- 148.201 million down from 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
January Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9%.
100th straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment

As I have been saying for a while [Read more…] about January Employment the Good and Bad

December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

January 5, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for December on January 4^thand some are calling it a “monster” jobs report causing the DOW to gain almost 747 points (3.29%). The reason for this is that the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs number was up 312,000 while the consensus was expecting an increase of only 176,000.

However all is not roses in employment land. There are a few thorns in the jobs report. Both Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were actually up and Unadjusted Employment was down.

Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.7% in November. Unadjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.5% in November. Unadjusted U-6 was also up from 7.2% in November to 7.5% in December. Unadjusted Employment- 151.190 million down from 151.244 million in November. All of this sounds Bad! The major factor that the market has latched onto in this report is the Labor Force Participation Rate which has bounced above 63% for the first time since 2014. See Labor Force Participation below for more.

As I have been saying for a while typically unemployment doesn’t stay below 4% for very long. As we can see from the chart below the dip in 2006-7 didn’t even get below 4%. The 2000 dip only spent a couple of months below 4%. The 1960, 1973, ’79 and ’89 dips didn’t get below 4% at all.

The three major exceptions are: [Read more…] about December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

September 8, 2018 by Tim McMahon

Correction: The differential was only 3.5% in August 2018 and 3.2% in September 2006 so we are only nearing the 2006 level not at the 2006 level.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of August on September 7^th .

The current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for August (released September 7^th) is 3.9% unchanged from last month.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it was 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It was 3.9% in April, 3.8% in May, 4.0% in June, and 3.9% in July.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July so seasonally adjusting takes that into consideration.

	Unadjusted U-3	Unadjusted U-3
	2017	2018
May	4.1%	3.6%
June	4.5%	4.2%
July	4.6%	4.1%
August	4.5%	3.9%

Key August Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% unchanged from July, down from 4.0% in June but above the 3.8% in May, it was 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October 2017 – March 2018.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June but still above the 3.6% in May, and 3.7% in April below the 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.4% down from 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June, up slightly from record lows of 7.3% in May, and 7.4% in April. Below the 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.226 million up from 148.901 million in July.
August Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% down from July LFPR 62.9%

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

In August we saw a massive drop in the differential between U-3 and U-6 so perhaps we are getting closer to “full employment” the lows on this chart are at 2.7% in October 2000 and 3.2% in September 2006. Since the current differential is once again 3.2% we have reached the lows of 2006. Back in January 2017 the media was saying that we were at “Full Employment” and we couldn’t expect anything better, manufacturing jobs would never come back etc. At that time I said we had a long way to go and that the differential between the U-6 and U-3 was nowhere near bottoming (the sign of full employment) at the time the differential was around 5%. See: Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? But with the differential currently at 3.2% now we are at or very near that level. Since October 2000 reached a low of 2.7% we could still go a bit lower.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Full Employment is Near – Differential between U3 and U6 reaches September 2006 Lows

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

August 4, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of July on Friday August 3^rd .

The current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for July (released August 3^rd) is 3.9% down from 4.0% last month. It was 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. Unemployment was 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. Seasonally adjusted unemployment bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July so seasonally adjusting takes that into consideration. If we look at Unadjusted Unemployment we see that in 2017 it jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June at the same time the Seasonally Adjusted numbers simply went from 4.3% to 4.4%.

Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.0% in June but up from the 3.8% in May, 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.2% in June up from 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.9% down from 8.1% in June, up from 7.3% in May, 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 148.901 million. BLS adjusted June employment up from 148.912 million as released to 150.057 million.
NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9% from a recent high of 63.4%

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers

June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

July 7, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of June on Friday July 6^th .

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June (released July 6^th) is 4.0% up from 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. It was 4.1% where it was stuck from October 2017 through March 2018. Prior to October it was bouncing around between 4.3% and 4.4% since April 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.

Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July, so even though 213,000 more people are employed, unemployment levels still went up. (Probably because students are swelling the labor force for the summer). Last year (2017) Unadjusted Unemployment jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June while Employment went from 146.937 million to 147.578 million. So even though more people are working more people are also looking for a job. This has driven the Labor Force Participation Rate at 63.4% to levels not seen in several years. NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9%.

Key June Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from 3.8% in May, 3.9% in April but still Below the 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.2% up from 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.1% up from 7.3% in May, 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.980 million up from 149.334 million in May, 148.372 million in April and 147.384 million in March.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP

May Unemployment Lowest Since 2000

June 2, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of May on Friday June 1^st .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is at a new low. Unemployment has been falling and has now reached levels not seen since April of 2000. Current levels are even lower than during the boom of 2006. If they drop another 1/10^th of a percent we will have to go all the way back to 1969 to find levels that low.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable. See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.8% Down from 3.9% in April and 4.1% October – March.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- May 3.6% down from 3.7% in April and 4.1% in March.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- May 7.3% Down from 7.4% in April and from 8.1% in March and 8.6% in February.
Employment 149.309 million up from 148.367 million in April and 147.369 million in March.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below only one sector is to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees except Utilities which lost -1,100 employees. The big gainers were Education and Health, Professional and business Services, Construction, Leisure and Manufacturing.

The biggest gainer was Education and Health Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 39,000+ jobs, followed by Retail and Professional Services which each gained roughly 31,000 jobs, Leisure gained 21,000 jobs and manufacturing gained another 18,000 on top of consistently high gains for the last few months. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased to $928.74.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

May 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	218,000	$928.74	126,336,000
Mining and Logging	4,000	$1,500.09	733,000
Construction	25,000	$1,174.14	7,210,000
Manufacturing	18,000	$1,097.52	12,673,000
Wholesale trade	4,200	$1,189.81	5,954,800
Retail trade	31,100	$579.70	15,970,300
Transportation and Warehousing	18,700	$940.41	5,309,300
Utilities	-1,100	$1,689.89	554,400
Information	6,000	$1,418.40	2,775,000
Financial Activities	8,000	$1,303.88	8,559,000
Professional and Business Services	31,000	$1,164.92	20,891,000
Education and Health Services	39,000	$887.70	23,563,000
Leisure and Hospitality	21,000	$413.95	16,281,000
Other Services	13,000	$772.53	5,862,000

March Employment Tops 147 Million

April 7, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of March on Friday April 6^th .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is unchanged for the 6^th month in a row. So from October through March the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This month the unadjusted U-3 was also 4.1%.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.4% February.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.1% down from 8.6% in February.
Employment 147,332 million up from 146.667 million in February and 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below three sectors are to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees in March except Construction which lost -15,000 employees, Retail which lost -4,400 employees, and “Other Services” which lost -1,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainer was Professional and Business Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 33,000 jobs, followed by Education and Health Services which gained 25,000 jobs and Manufacturing which gained 22,000 jobs on top of last months 31,000 manufacturing jobs gained. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased from $922.88 to $925.29.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

March 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	102,000	$925.29	125,904,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,501.44	722,000
Construction	-15,000	$1,153.66	7,150,000
Manufacturing	22,000	$1,098.57	12,632,000
Wholesale trade	11,400	$1,178.97	5,967,300
Retail trade	-4,400	$576.58	15,915,900
Transportation and Warehousing	9,800	$942.35	5,279,300
Utilities	4,000	$1,674.74	559,000
Information	2,000	$1,410.43	2,760,000
Financial Activities	2,000	$1,297.20	8,546,000
Professional and Business Services	33,000	$1,162.42	20,803,000
Education and Health Services	25,000	$882.38	23,483,000
Leisure and Hospitality	5,000	$412.64	16,256,000
Other Services	-1,000	$770.31	5,830,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 8.9% in January to 8.6% in February and fell further to 8.1% in March.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by 665,000 jobs in March. The BLS Commissioner said:“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000)…

Over the month, job gains occurred in manufacturing, health care, and mining… Manufacturing employment rose by 22,000… Employment in health care increased by 22,000 in March and has grown by 304,000 over the year…. Mining employment rose by 9,000… Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in March (+33,000). Over the year, employment in the industry has increased by 502,000, with gains distributed across most of the component industries.” [Read more…] about March Employment Tops 147 Million

February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

March 10, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday March 9^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of February.

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for February is unchanged for the 5th month in a row. That’s right from October through February the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%.

This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% down from 4.5% January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.6% down from 8.9% in January.
Employment 146.696 million up from 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below the only sector to the left of the zero line is Information meaning that all other sectors gained employees in February except information which lost -12,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

The biggest gainer was construction (bubble furthest to the right) which added 61,000 jobs, followed by Retail Trade which gained 50,300 jobs and Professional and Business Services which gained 50,000 jobs even manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs. (See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
Average Weekly earnings.
The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

Total Employment for the sector.
Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

February 2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry	Monthly Increase	Average Weekly Earnings	Employment Level
Total Private Employment	287,000	$922.88	125,819,000
Mining and Logging	8,000	$1,485.78	713,000
Construction	61,000	$1,158.17	7,173,000
Manufacturing	31,000	$1,100.03	12,614,000
Wholesale trade	5,800	$1,185.12	5,956,200
Retail trade	50,300	$572.55	15,926,200
Transportation and Warehousing	15,400	$940.60	5,263,400
Utilities	1,200	$1,658.82	553,400
Information	-12,000	$1,418.40	2,748,000
Financial Activities	28,000	$1,290.81	8,547,000
Professional and Business Services	50,000	$1,161.30	20,760,000
Education and Health Services	23,000	$882.75	23,466,000
Leisure and Hospitality	16,000	$410.81	16,262,000
Other Services	10,000	$768.73	5,837,000

U-6 Unemployment

Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 10.1% in January to 9.5% in 2017 and from 8.9% to 8.6% in 2018.

From the table at the left we can also see that U-6 unemployment went from 9.2% in October 2016 to 7.6% in 2017.

Similarly it fell from 9.0% in November 2016 to 7.7% in 2017 and from 9.1% in December 2016 to 8.0% in 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by [Read more…] about February Employment UP – Unemployment Down

January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

February 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

January Unemployment is almost record setting… but not for the reason you might think.

On Friday February 2^nd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of January. According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for January is unchanged for the almost record setting 4th month in a row. That’s right from October through January the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower but the interesting part is that the unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% from October through December (resulting in the adjusted rate being 4.1%) but then in January the unadjusted rate jumped to 4.5% (a 0.6% increase) and the adjusted U-3 remained the same at 4.1%. This is because typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick in unadjusted unemployment rate. But because the Seasonally Adjusted U3 was unchanged for the month the current increase in the unadjusted U-3 was actually no greater or less than normal. See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

U-6 Unemployment

Over the same period, Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment including discouraged workers, climbed steadily.

It was 7.6% in October, then 7.7% in November, then 8.0% in December, and finally 8.9% in January.

This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and had climbed to 10.1% by January 2017.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has decreased by [Read more…] about January Unemployment Almost “Record Setting”

October Unemployment Rate Down Again

November 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday November 3^rd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of October.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 4.1% DOWN from 4.2% in September and 4.4% in August. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment was 4.8% in January and 4.9% a year ago (October 2016).

The current “Unadjusted” rate is 3.9% down from 4.1% in September and 4.5% in August. Unadjusted U-3 was 5.1% in January and 4.7% a year ago (October 2016).

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Seasonal adjustment provides something like a moving average leveling out the bumps due to normal seasonal variations. See: Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for more information about Seasonal Adjustment.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month: