June

June Employment Weak

July 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
Next data release August 2^nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918 million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

June Employment and Unemployment Both Up

July 3, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for June released on July 2^nd.

Unadjusted U-3 was UP from 5.5% to 6.1%
Adjusted U-3 was UP from 5.8% to 5.9%
Unadjusted U-6 was UP from 9.7% to 10.1%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 145.385 million to 146.517 million

Over 5 Million More Jobs in June

July 2, 2020 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 2^nd.

More than 5 million People Return to Work in June as COVID restrictions relax.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 13.0% to 11.2%!
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 13.3% to 11.1%!
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 20.7% to 18.3%!
Labor Force Participation rose from 60.8% to 61.5%.
Unadjusted Employment up by approx. 5.1 million jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In June, employment continued to rise in several major industry sectors, with the largest gain in leisure and hospitality. Notable gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 133.342 million jobs for May and then in June, they added 68,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 133.410 million jobs for May and 138.513 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 5.171 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month or 5.103 million increase based on their updated estimates.