April 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report
- Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
- Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
- Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.1% to 6.6%
- Labor Force Participation Down from 62.4% to 62.2%
- Unadjusted Employment rose from 149. 912 to 150.938 million
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.
Nonfarm employment is down by 1.2 million, or 0.8 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In April, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+78,000), with gains in food services and drinking places (+44,000) and accommodation (+22,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.4 million, or 8.5 percent, from its February 2020 level.”
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”
Looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 149.938 million for March which they adjusted to 149.912 million. So 26,000 jobs disappeared for March. They are reporting 150.938 million jobs for April which is actually an increase of exactly 1,000,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,026,000 based on their updated numbers.
According to Jeffrey Tucker at Gilder’s Daily Prophecy “The jobs report this morning didn’t look half bad on the surface… The trouble was in the footnotes: The U.S. labor force shrank by 363,000 people in April from a month earlier… The labor force participation rate… ticked down to 62.2% in April from 62.4% in March.
So the dropout economy is getting worse, not better, rendering these unemployment numbers rather pointless… Women with kids have dropped out and child care is too expensive. Many men just moved home to mom and dad and are happy to live off savings and look forward to going into debt. Plus, the demoralization of the workforce after lockdowns has drained American ambition… In addition, wage growth is slowing, a fact which might cheer the Fed, but is bad news for workers because it means the purchasing power of their wages will fall further, after having endured a devastating hit over the last six months.
A former Fed official went public with a very obvious statement, namely that the federal funds rate needs to be 3.5% in order to even begin to make a dent in inflation.
How does Richard Clarida know this? It’s not rocket science: short-term rates need to be positive in real terms rather than negative. That means 3.5%, yes, but more likely double or triple that. The Fed simply won’t go there. The Fed’s theory is that it can put out the house fire by carefully spraying a bit of water here and there in a way that doesn’t cause shock and alarm.”