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February

February Unemployment Increases

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March  8th, 2024.

Employment / Unemployment 

Adj U3 Icon 3-9up

 

  • Seasonally Adjusted U3- 3.9% up from 3.7% in January
  • Unadjusted U3- 4.2% up from 4.1% in January
  • Unadjusted U6- 7.8% down from 8.0% in January
  • Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% -unchanged
  • Employment 156.555 million up from 155.414 million

Summary:
Although employment rose, U3 Unemployment also rose in February in both adjusted and unadjusted rates. Unadjusted U6 fell, but adjusted U6 rose from 7.2% to 7.3%. Labor Force Participation was unchanged.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing…”

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.5 percent) and teenagers (12.5 percent) increased over the month…”

“Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased by 174,000 to 1.7 million in February.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.626 million for January which they adjusted to 155.414 million (for a loss of 212,000 jobs).  They are currently reporting 156.555 million jobs for February which is actually a gain of  929,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But many of these jobs came from government, and social assistance plus food services and drinking places. These are not the type of jobs that build a robust economy. And permanent job losers are increasing.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made early in 2023. Current levels are nearing the beginning of the “Yellow Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate Mar 24

[Read more…] about February Unemployment Increases

February Employment / Unemployment Report

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February 2022 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.0% to 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 4.4% to 4.1%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.9% to 7.6%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% 62.3%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 147. 510 million to 148. 964 million

February 2022 Unemployment report:

AP says: Strong Job Growth Points to COVID’s Fading Grip on Economy “Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July, the Labor Department reported Friday.”

CNBC says: U.S. unemployment rate falls in February, but ticks up for Black women “The unemployment rate for Black women ticked up to 6.1% in February from 5.8% in the previous month.”

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent. Employment growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction. Employment is down by 2.1 million, or 1.4 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.

In February, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+179,000) with job gains in food services and drinking places (+124,000) and accommodation (+28,000). “

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 147.525 million for January which they adjusted to 147.510 million. So 15,000 jobs disappeared for January. But they are reporting 148.964 million jobs for February which is actually an increase of 1,439,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,454,000 based on their updated numbers. 

[Read more…] about February Employment / Unemployment Report