• About WordPress
    • WordPress.org
    • Documentation
    • Learn WordPress
    • Support
    • Feedback
  • Log In
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Home
  • Contact us
  • Related Sites
    • InflationData.com
    • Financial Trend Forecaster
    • Your Family Finances
    • Elliott Wave University
    • Optio Money
  • About
    • Terms of Use
    • Disclaimer & Disclosure
    • Privacy Statement
  • Sitemap
    • 2009-2010 Posts
    • 2011 Posts

UnemploymentData.com

Your Source for Employment and Unemployment Data

Unemployment
  • Charts
    • Current Unemployment Rate Chart
    • Current Employment Rate (Chart and Data)
    • Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart
    • Historical Employment Data
    • Employment Population Ratio
    • Misery Index
  • Unemployment
    • Historical Unemployment Rate Tables
    • What Is U-6 Unemployment?
    • Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate
    • BLS vs. Gallup Unemployment Numbers
    • Current U-6 Unemployment Rate
    • What is the Labor Force Participation Rate?
    • What is the Real Unemployment Rate?
  • Employment
    • Current Employment Rate (Chart and Data)
    • Historical Employment Data
    • Contacting a Live Person at the State Employment Commission
      • How to Talk to a Live Person at the Virginia Unemployment Commission
      • Florida’s FLUID Unemployment Program
    • Benefits
      • Insurance
      • Retirement
    • Careers
    • Employment Costs
    • Experience
    • Government
    • Job Hunting
      • Interview
      • Resume
  • Find Articles
  • Education
    • Skills
  • General
    • Small Business
      • Outsourcing
    • Success
You are here: Home / Archives for employment

employment

July 2023 Unemployment Down

August 5, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 4th 2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% unchanged
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 7.1% down from 7.2%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 156.945 to 156.126 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was down, and they claim more people were working
there were actually fewer people working in July than in June.
Total Employed went down from 156.945 million in June to only 156.126 million in July.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Employment Statistics Program (Formerly the Establishment Survey report) we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.963 million for June, which they adjusted to 156.945 million. So they subtracted 18,000 jobs for June. They are reporting 156.126 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 837,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 819,000 based on their updated numbers. 

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is at the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is what happened before dropping slightly in July.  Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate 8-23

[Read more…] about July 2023 Unemployment Down

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: ADP, BLS, employment, July Unemployment

May Employment and Unemployment Up?

June 3, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 2nd 2023.

Unemployment up Slightly 

Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.4% up from 3.1%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 6.4% Up from 6.1%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 155.386 to 156.303 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.337 million for April which they adjusted to 155.386 million. So they added 49,000 jobs for April. They are reporting 156.306 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 969,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 920,000 based on their updated numbers. 

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.”  And that is precisely what is happening.  Current levels are within the “Green Zone”.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate

[Read more…] about May Employment and Unemployment Up?

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: ADP, employment, LFPR, May 2023, unemployment

April Employment Nears All-Time Highs

May 6, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for April on May 5th 2023.

Employment Near All-Time High 

Seasonally Adjusted U3 down to 3.4%

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.4% down from 3.5%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.1% down from 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was 6.1% Down from 6.8%
  • Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 154.445 million to 155.337 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.517 million for March which they adjusted to 154.445 million. So they subtracted 72,000 jobs for March. They are now reporting 155.337 million jobs for April, which is an increase of 820,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 892,000 based on their updated numbers. 

Current Employment Rate Chart

November 2022 had the highest number of people employed in the history of the United States at 155,642,000. Then the typical January slump hit, taking employment down by roughly 3 million. But now employment is once again nearing that high. And if history is any indicator, we can expect employment to peak in June above November’s level before taking another breather. So far, as of April, employment is just a little over 300,000 shy of the all-time high. One way we can tell if the economy is beginning to falter is if the June high doesn’t exceed the previous November, or if November 2023 employment doesn’t exceed June 2023.

Current Employment ChartSee Current Employment for more info.

Full Employment?

Last month we said, “Full Employment is when everyone who wants a job has one. It is generally considered to be slightly above 3%. Although, other factors, such as unemployment benefits, can shift the level higher or lower. So, if unemployment benefits are extended from 6 months to 1 year, people will tend to stay unemployed longer, thus raising the unemployment rate.”

The following chart shows four examples of employment continuing to rise, but unemployment flattens out at just over 3%. Currently, the unadjusted unemployment rate is at 3.1%, as close to the theoretical full employment as you can get. Over the next few months, we will see how well reality relates to theory and if unemployment can actually get below 3%.

Note: The Unemployment rate is inverted to track the employment rate, neither is Seasonally Adjusted.

Employment vs Unemployment Chart

Full employment is not considered to be at zero percent because even when employers are having difficulty finding employees, some people are still unemployed due to either structural unemployment (mismatch between worker skills and job requirements, i.e., not enough training) or simply because they quit their job knowing it would be easy to find another (hopefully better) job. Often referred to as frictional unemployment (there will always be people who have quit or have lost a seasonal job and are in the process of getting a new job). See: Highly Skilled Worker Shortage in a Recession?

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

Somehow the workforce has to be growing to accommodate these newly created jobs. They could be long-term unemployed (no longer counted in the workforce) returning to the workforce, they could be immigrants entering the workforce, or possibly retired people coming out of retirement because of an offer too good to turn down. This is generally facilitated by rising wages, but this month’s ADP report indicates that wage growth has slowed, possibly indicating that we are nearing the end of this boom.

Reasons for Unemployment

As we can see from the following chart, Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs (black line) always creates some job turnover (i.e. temporary unemployment), although this month the level of turnover decreased somewhat. There is also a steady stream of reentrants, new entrants, and those on temporary layoff.

Reasons for unemployment

Duration of Unemployment

If the duration of unemployment begins climbing, it generally indicates a worsening economic climate. The following chart shows a falling less than 5 weeks of unemployment (which could indicate people are starting to be unemployed for longer times or simply that it is easy to find a new job). 5-14 week unemployment rose slightly, 15-26 week unemployment fell, and 27 weeks and over was relatively unchanged. The trouble starts when 15-26 week unemployment begins rising, followed by longer-term unemployment.

Duration of Unemployment The following chart shows an uptick in the percentage of people unemployed 27 weeks or longer, which could be an early warning indicator.

Unemployed 27+ weeks

ADP® National Employment Report

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up in April.

ADP: Private employers added 296,000 jobs in April compared to 145,000 jobs in March.

ADP Employment Comments

 

Ms. Richardson is saying that although employers are still hiring, upward pressure on salaries has eased somewhat.

I’ve added some arrows to the ADP private employment chart, to indicate the slope of the line. The long green arrow shows the rapid post-COVID rebound in employment. Then in early 2022, the rate of increase slowed (small yellow arrow). Then around March 2022, the rate of increase picked up again (small green arrow). More recently, the rate of growth has moderated, possibly due to nearing full employment. As long as the slope is upward, the economy is still growing, despite the difficulty in finding qualified employees.

 

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.
This month, all-size companies added employees. Last month the only one that decreased was companies with 250-499 employees.

April ADP Changes:

Change by Est Size for Apr 2023

 

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

[Read more…] about April Employment Nears All-Time Highs

Filed Under: Employment Tagged With: ADP, April, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment, Jobs Report, unemployment

February 2023 Unemployment Report

March 11, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for February on March 10th 2023.

Employment Up and Unemployment Up? 

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 up

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.836 million to 153.955 million
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.4% to 62.5%
  • Adjusted U-3 rose from 3.4% to 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 unchanged at 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 fell from 7.4% to 7.3%

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…

Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.844 million for January, which they adjusted down slightly to 152.836 million.

The current estimate for February is 153.955 million which is up 1.11 million from the original number and up 1.12 million from the revised numbers. According to the BLS, this increase didn’t change the unadjusted U-3 number and actually resulted in an increase in unemployment on a seasonally adjusted basis.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up from January to February by 242,000.

ADP: Private employers added 242,000 jobs in February

Nela Richardson Feb 2023

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size” and they posted this comment:

  • Job gains are solid and wage growth remains elevated. A particular area of weakness is with small establishments, which shed jobs every month since August 2022.

But their December report showed small businesses gaining.

December Changes:

ADP Change by Establishment Size

February Changes:

 

Change by Est Size for Feb 2023

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

[Read more…] about February 2023 Unemployment Report

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment, February 2023, Salary, unemployment

January Employment / Unemployment Report

February 4, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 3rd 2023.

Employment Down or Up? – Unemployment Down? 

Adj U3 Icon 3-4 dn

 

  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 155.349 million to 152.844
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.3% to 62.4%
  • Adjusted U-3 fell from 3.5% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-3 ROSE from 3.3% to 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 ROSE from 6.4% to 7.4%

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.”

In addition, the BLS posted the following note:
 “Establishment survey data have been revised as a result of the annual benchmarking process, the NAICS 2022 conversion, and the updating of seasonal adjustment factors.| Also, household survey data for January 2023 reflect updated population estimates.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.771 million for December, which they adjusted up to 155.349 million. So, 578,000 additional jobs appeared for December.
I don’t know if it’s just me but, an additional half million jobs seems a bit exceptional, but perhaps in government work it’s just a rounding error.

The current estimate for January is 152.844 million which is down 1.9 million from the original number and down 2.5 million from the revised numbers. But after Seasonally Adjustment they report a half million increase! Typically, employment does fall off in January so some seasonal adjustment is justified but the half million increase in December seems a bit excessive.
We will see what happens next month.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab employment was up from December but by about 1/5th as much as the BLS reported. But if employment is up, why is the UNADJUSTED U3 and U6 down drastically? Could it be the extra 1.1 million people the BLS added to the Civilian population? December Civilian Population 264.844 million. January Civilian Population 265.962 million.

ADP: Private employers added 106,000 jobs in January

  • Employment was soft during our Jan. 12 reference week as the U.S. was hit with extreme weather. California was coping with record floods and back-to-back storms delivered ice and snow to the central and eastern U.S.

Nela Richardson January 2023ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Last month small and medium-sized companies were hiring while large corporations are downsizing. This month it was almost the opposite.

December Changes:

ADP Change by Establishment Size

January Changes:

Change by Est Size for January 2023

January 2023 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

Average Weekly Wages Rose in January

Date Average Weekly Wage
January 2023 $1,146.14
December 2022 $1,125.73
November 2022 $1,129.01
October 2022 $1,124.01
September 2022 $1,119.87
August 2022 $1116.42
July 2022 $1,116.54
June 2022 $1,106.76
May 2022 $1,105.47
April 2022 $1,102.01
December 2021 $1,086.46

[Read more…] about January Employment / Unemployment Report

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, employment, unemployment

December 2022 Employment Report

January 7, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Is Employment Up or Down?

 

  • Unadjusted Employment fell from 155.015 million to 154.771
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 62.2% to 62.3%
  • Adjusted U-3 fell from 3.6% to 3.5%
  • Unadjusted U-3 fell from 3.4% to 3.3%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was unchanged at 6.4%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 6th2023.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance… The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in December and has remained in a narrow range of 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent since March.”

In addition, the BLS posted the following note:
“Seasonally adjusted household survey data have been revised using updated seasonal adjustment factors…”
They will also be making further annual adjustments next month.

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”  rather than looking at the unadjusted results.

Looking at the unadjusted Current Employment Statistics program (formerly called the Establishment Survey report), we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 154.990 million for November, which they adjusted up to 155.015 million. So, 25,000 additional jobs appeared for November.

The current estimate for December is 154.771 million, which is down 219,000 from the original November number and down 244,000 from the revised numbers.

According to the BLS’ unadjusted Current Population Survey (CPS), the labor force was 164.224 million in December. Of those, 158.872 million were employed, and 5.352 million were unemployed. November CPS employment was 158.749 million, so according to the Current Population Survey, employment increased.

So one set of numbers shows an increase in employment while the other shows a decrease. ADP says mostly up.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, employment was up from November to December.

Private employers added 235,000 jobs in December

  • Job resurgence was seen in the last two months of 2022, led by consumer-facing service industries. Hiring was strong across small and medium establishments, while large establishments saw a drop in employment of 151,000 jobs.

ADP Comment December 2022ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

As we can see, small and medium-sized companies are still hiring, while large corporations are downsizing.

ADP Change by Establishment Size

 

December 2022 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

In November, Leisure and Hospitality, Education, Construction, Manufacturing, and “Other” were the big gainers, while Retail was the big loser.

Average Weekly Wages Fell in December

$1,125.73 in December, $1,129.01 in November, $1,124.01 in October , $1,119.87 in September, $1116.42 in August, $1,116.54 in July, $1,106.76, in June, $1,105.47 in May and $1,102.01 in April, and $1,086.46 in December 2021. [Read more…] about December 2022 Employment Report

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, December 2022, employment, unemployment

November Jobs Report

December 2, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

Current U-3 Unemployment Rate

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 154.416 million to 154.990
  • Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.2% to 62.1%
  • Adjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was unchanged at 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.3% to 6.4%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 2nd.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in
transportation and warehousing. The November gain in nonfarm payroll employment was roughly in line with average growth over the prior 3 months (+282,000). Monthly job growth thus far in 2022 has averaged 392,000, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 154.369 million for October, which they adjusted up to 154.416 million. So, 47,000 additional jobs appeared for October.

November gained an additional 574,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.990 million.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP, in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 127,000 jobs in November

  • Job creation slowed by the most since January 2021, led by construction and other interest rate-sensitive sectors. Consumer-facing segments – including health care and hospitality – were bright spots.

ADP Economist

 

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

Last month (October) ADP posted these changes…

For November, the numbers definitely look worse, with virtually all the gains in mid-sized companies. People are becoming more risk-averse, so fewer small companies are being started. At some point, when jobs are scarce, starting your own business becomes the only option, so small company creation increases again. :

ADP Change by Establishment Size

 

November 2022 Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” is a quick and easy way to see how each sector performs on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

In November, Leisure and Hospitality, Education, Construction, Manufacturing, and “Other” were the big gainers, while Retail was the big loser.

Average Weekly Wages Rose

$1,129.01 in November, $1,124.01 in October , $1,119.87 in September, $1116.42 in August, $1,116.54 in July, $1,106.76, in June, $1,105.47 in May and $1,102.01 in April, and $1,086.46 in December 2021. Surprisingly, Retail was the big loser, which is unusual for this time of year.  [Read more…] about November Jobs Report

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: 2022, BLS, employment, jobs, November, unemployment

October 2022 BLS Employment Report

November 5, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

Employment Up – Unemployment Also Up?

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 153.197 million to 154.369
  • Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 6.4% to 6.3%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 4th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. Monthly job growth has averaged 407,000 thus
far in 2022, compared with 562,000 per month in 2021.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 153.073 million for September, which they adjusted up to 153.197 million. So, 124,000 additional jobs appeared for September.

October gained an additional 1,272,000 jobs bringing the total up to 154.369 million.

Initially, the market shot up under the news but as the day progressed the market lost most of its gains. 

See November FED Announcement Rocks Stock Market for more market info.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

Private employers added 239,000 jobs in October

  • Employers created 239,000 jobs in October, up from a revised 192,000 in September as restaurants, retailers and the travel sector ramped up hiring in advance of the year-end holidays.

ADP 11-2022

 

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Last month, there were increases across the board. This month’s results were mixed.

 

Unemployment

Looking at the chart for unemployment, we see that despite the increase in the number of people employed unemployment still ticked upward slightly.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate 11-22

Employment –Establishment Survey

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (154.369 million) is now above the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is 5 million higher now.

Current Employment 11-4-22

 

See Current Employment for more info.

[Read more…] about October 2022 BLS Employment Report

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, employment, October 2022, unemployment

September Unemployment Falls… Dragging Market Down

October 8, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

Employment Up – Unemployment Down

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.642 million to 153.073
  • Labor Force Participation is Down from 62.4% to 62.3%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 3.7% to 3.5%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.8% to 3.3%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.0% to 6.4%

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for September on October 7th.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 152.572 million for August, which they adjusted up to 152.642 million. So, 70,000 additional jobs appeared for August.

September gained an additional 431,000 jobs bringing the total up to 153.073 million.

Normally this would be good news, but perversely the market was hoping for a bad report which would indicate that the FED could cut back on its tightening.
A good September 2022 Unemployment report means inflation is not yet under control, so the FED will continue aggressively tightening.

According to Bloomberg:
“The US labor market stayed strong in September as the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving the inflation-phobic Federal Reserve on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest-rate hike.”

In response, the NYSE lost just over 2% of its value on Friday after the release of the report.

However, just 4 days earlier, on Monday, the BLS had released its “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” for August, which in the minds of schizophrenic market analysts, appeared to indicate that the Labor market might possibly be softening just a little, and the market used that as an excuse to rally. So the NYSE opened the week at 13,472… rallied to 14,340… then fell back to 13,798 for the week.  (Actually, a 2.4% net gain for the week).

NOTE: The reason we look at the NYSE rather than the more commonly quoted DOW is breadth. The NYSE covers the vast majority of U.S. stocks rather than just a few major ones covered by the DOW.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab

  • Businesses created 208,000 jobs in September, up from a revised 185,000 in August, as schools reopened and pandemic concerns receded. But while job growth is stable, it remains below the recent three-month average.

In other words, jobs are still growing but not as fast as they have been. Despite this slowing of job growth and the FED tightening, ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson believes jobs will continue to grow.

ADP September

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.

At some point, it may look like small-size firms (i.e. 1-19 employees) are increasing, while everything else is decreasing, but that could simply be the result of people starting companies because they can’t find any other jobs (although this isn’t currently the case). Currently, there are increases across the board.

ADP Change by Firm Size 10-22

Establishment Survey Employment

Looking at the chart for employment, we see that current employment (153.073 million) is just a hair under the 2019 peak (153.095 million) although the civilian population is almost 5 million higher now. So despite all the talk of the strong employment situation, there is a slight disconnect.

Current Employment

See Current Employment for more info.

[Read more…] about September Unemployment Falls… Dragging Market Down

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, employment, jobs, Report, September 2022

August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

September 3, 2022 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 2nd.

 

Adj U3 Icon 3-7 up

 

  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 152.263 million to 152.572
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.1% to 62.4%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Up from 3.5% to 3.7%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.8%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.2% to 7.0%

 

Looking Back:

In June, we reported a few Early Indicators of a brewing recession.

  • Labor Force Participation Down from 62.3% to 62.2%
  • Upturn in Uneducated Unemployment
  • Rising Unemployment among the newly unemployed
  • Average Weekly Hours among manufacturing workers falling

Since then, the BLS has changed the employment numbers for June from an initial 152.692 million for June. They adjusted down to 152.634 million in July and then down to 152.607 in August. So, a total of 85,000 jobs disappeared for June.

July’s Indicators

Originally they reported employment of  152.249 million jobs for July. They have adjusted that to 152.263 million , which is an increase of 14,000 jobs. For August, they are currently reporting 152.572 million,  an increase of 323,000 based on their original estimates or an increase of 309,000 based on their updated numbers.

But… August employment is still below June’s employment no matter which number for June they use.

On the Bright Side

Labor Force Participation is Up to 62.4% where it peaked in March.

Labor Force Participation Rate

In the News:

Trying to put a good spin on rising unemployment US. News says:

Lower US Job Gain in August Could Aid Fed’s Inflation Fight

The NY Times is beating the same drum:

Job Market Cooled but Was Still Strong in August

The monthly employment report suggested that the Federal Reserve might be able to tame inflation without causing a recession.

CNN follows along:

Yes, the unemployment rate rose. Here’s why that’s good news

CNBC focuses on race instead:
While all demographic groups saw the unemployment rate tick up slightly, it rose at a sharper pace for both Hispanic and Black workers to 4.5% and 6.4%, respectively.

ADP National Employment Report

In addition to the BLS, we can look at the Jobs Report generated by private companies like ADP Research Institute. According to their numbers, August employment was up 132,000 not the 300,000+ that the BLS reports.

  • Private employers created 132,000 jobs in August, a step down from the month before, when the economy created nearly 270,000 jobs. Payroll growth also slowed in July when compared to June of this year.

About the ADP Report:

The ADP National Employment Report is an independent estimate of the change in U.S. private sector employment and pay derived from actual, anonymous payroll data of client companies served by ADP, a leading provider of human capital management solutions. The report is produced by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The ADP National Employment Report is broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, as part of the company’s commitment to offering deeper insights of the U.S. labor market and providing businesses and governments with a source of credible and valuable information.

Current Employment

Current Employment Chart

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. Total nonfarm employment increased by 5.8 million over the year, as the labor market continued to recover from the job losses of the pandemic-induced recession. This growth brings total nonfarm employment 240,000 above its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”.

Employment is approaching the 2019 peak, although the population is now several million higher.

Historical Employment with Recessions

Historical Employment Chart

[Read more…] about August: Employment and Labor Force Participation Up

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: ADP, August 2022, BLS, employment, Labor Statistics, unemployment

  • « Go to Previous Page
  • Page 1
  • Page 2
  • Page 3
  • Page 4
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 11
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Search Site

Sponsored:

URGENT: These Stocks Stand Poised to Benefit from President Trump's Trade Wars!

As the Trump administration moves ahead with aggressive tariff policies on key imports, the mainstream media is scrambling.

This Free Report - which you can download now - reveals the names and ticker symbols of 5 Stock Poised to Benefit Most from President Trump's Tariff Wars.

Click Here to Download Your FREE Stock Report Now.

Recent Posts

  • April 2025 Employment / Unemployment Report
  • Would More Jobs Help Social Security?
  • March 2025- Employment / Unemployment Report
  • February 2025 Jobs Report
  • January 2025 BLS Employment Report

Resources

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey Monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for BLS. It provides data on the labor force, employment, unemployment, etc.
  • Capital Professional Services Providing web design and development and Internet marketing services
  • Elliott Wave University Using the Elliott Wave Principle to improve investment performance
  • Financial Trend Forecaster Featuring Moore Inflation Predictor, NYSE Rate of Change and NASDAQ Rate of change
  • InflationData.com Inflation calculators, databases, etc.
  • Intergalactic Web Designers Web design and development services
  • Your Family Finances

Articles by Category

Articles by Date

Disclaimer

At UnemploymentData.com we are not registered investment advisors and do not provide any individualized advice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance and future accuracy and profitable results cannot be guaranteed.

Privacy & Terms of Use

Privacy Statement & Terms of Use

Do Not Sell My Information

Copyright © 2025 · News Pro on Capital Professional Services, LLC. All rights reserved · Log in