The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for December on January 10th, 2025.
Employment / Unemployment
- Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from November
- Unadjusted U3- 3.8% Down from November
- Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Unchanged
- Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% Unchanged
- Employment 160.458 million Down from 160.539 million
- Next data release February 7th, 2025
Summary:
Total Employed Decreased in December, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment decreased.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.
The unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent in December. After increasing earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has been either 4.1 percent or 4.2 percent for the past 7 months. The number of unemployed people, at 6.9 million, also changed little in December.”
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.560 million for November
which they adjusted to 160.539 million this month.
They are currently reporting 160.458 million jobs for December which is actually a decrease of -102,000 jobs based on their original numbers. Or -81,000 jobs based on their revised numbers.
The LFPR was unchanged at 62.5%.
Bad News or Good News?
Once again, the perverse nature of the stock market showed its ugly head. The market took the BLS report as good enough to generate fear that the FED won’t cut rates again soon. So, the NYSE lost 547.73 points or 2.8%. This brought the market back down to the lows of December 19, 2024.
Current Unemployment Rate Chart
As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment has risen 0.7 percentage points since the lows of 2023. At 4.1%, unemployment is no longer in the “Excellent” range but still in the “Very Good” range.
