The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for November on December 7th. Unadjusted U-3 and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 were unchanged. Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% for the third month in a row while unadjusted was 3.5% for the second month. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when Adjusted U-3 was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.
Remember that the world population had just been drastically reduced through WWII (ending in 1945) so there were much fewer working age men available. So it is unlikely that we will see unemployment at 1953 levels again.
Key November Employment and Unemployment Numbers
- Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged since September down from 3.9% in August, This is the lowest Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate since 1969.
- Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% unchanged from October down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
- Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.2% up from 7.0% in October and 7.1% in September still below the 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
- Employment 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. (475,000 more jobs)
- November Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% unchanged from October but up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)
See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.
Previous Record Low Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| 1950 | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| 1951 | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% |
| 1952 | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 1953 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| 1954 | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 1965 | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| 1966 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| 1967 | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| 1968 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 1969 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 1970 | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
Employment
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner’s report:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.
Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.”
November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…
The stock market is fretting because projections called for an increase of 195,000 (seasonally adjusted jobs) and we “only” got 155,000 but Employment is at a new all time record 151.232 million up from 150.757 million in October. The previous high was set in June 2018 at 150.040 million. So, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 155,000 there were 475,000 more actual jobs.
Incidentally, last month adjusted jobs exceeded projections by almost exactly the same amount as they fell short this month. So one could argue that the two month increase is exactly on projection.
Employment by Sector
The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about November Employment Gains Less Than Projected But…
U-6 Unemployment
