Your Source for Employment and Unemployment Data
Highlights from the August 6th Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for July.
Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for February released on March 5th.
[Read more…] about February Employment Shows Improvement in Leisure and Hospitality
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 6th.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined.”
Of course, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 141.855 million jobs for September, this month they only adjusted that slightly.
So currently they are saying 141.854 million jobs for September and 143.459 million for October.
which is actually an increase of 1,604,000 jobs based on their original estimates.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 5th.
COVID-19 Unemployment Decreases as People Return to Work
Economists were predicting another stairstep increase in unemployment in May. According to a CNBC article “Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to drop by 8.33 million and the unemployment rate to rise to 19.5% from April’s 14.7%.”
Instead, Unemployment fell to 13.3% and payrolls rose by 2.9 million making the “experts” wrong by roughly 11 million.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In May, employment rose in several major industry sectors, with the largest gains in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply.”
Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”
But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 131.071 million jobs for April and then they subtracted 660,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 130.411 million jobs for April and 133.342 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 2.271 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month. Or 2.931 million jobs based on their current estimates of April’s employment.
[Read more…] about Unemployment Rate Falls Contrary to Economist’s Projections
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for March on April 5th and it has the market pundits celebrating. Last month they worried over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs.
This month once again the projections were for 175,000 new jobs but the BLS says there were 195,000 new jobs so the market is happy.
As we said in the Current Unemployment Chart commentary:
According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services… The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March and has been either 60.6 percent or 60.7 percent since October 2018… Health care added 49,000 jobs in March and 398,000 over the past 12 months… Employment in professional and technical services grew by 34,000 in March and 311,000 over the past 12 months. “
Key factors in the report were the unemployment rate for Women dropped to another mega low of 3.3% from 3.6% last month.
Black unemployment was 6.7% and Hispanic Unemployment was 4.7%.
Last month the media was unpleasantly surprised by the Jobs report being lower than the consensus and this month they were pleasantly surprised by the higher than expected jobs. “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected that the jobs report would show solid growth by 175,000 jobs” but instead the report showed 196,000 “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs created, “making March the 102nd straight month of job growth”. In unadjusted terms February had 149.867 million jobs while March had 149.133 million jobs for an actual increase of 724,000 jobs.
Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for January on February 1st. “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 is 4.0% up from 3.9% in December. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it stayed at 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It bounced between 3.8% and 4.0% from April through August 2018 before falling to 3.7% in September – November. So unemployment is currently at the same level as it was from April through August 2018.
As I have been saying for a while [Read more…] about January Employment the Good and Bad
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of June on Friday July 6th .
According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for June (released July 6th) is 4.0% up from 3.8% in May and 3.9% in April. It was 4.1% where it was stuck from October 2017 through March 2018. Prior to October it was bouncing around between 4.3% and 4.4% since April 2017, after declining from 4.8% in January 2017.
Typically Unemployment levels are worse in June and July, so even though 213,000 more people are employed, unemployment levels still went up. (Probably because students are swelling the labor force for the summer). Last year (2017) Unadjusted Unemployment jumped from 4.1% in May to 4.5% in June while Employment went from 146.937 million to 147.578 million. So even though more people are working more people are also looking for a job. This has driven the Labor Force Participation Rate at 63.4% to levels not seen in several years. NOTE: On 8/3/2018 with the release of the new July numbers the BLS adjusted the June LFPR down to 62.9%.
See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.
The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about June Employment Up AND Unemployment UP
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of May on Friday June 1st .
According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is at a new low. Unemployment has been falling and has now reached levels not seen since April of 2000. Current levels are even lower than during the boom of 2006. If they drop another 1/10th of a percent we will have to go all the way back to 1969 to find levels that low.
Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable. See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.
See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.
The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below only one sector is to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees except Utilities which lost -1,100 employees. The big gainers were Education and Health, Professional and business Services, Construction, Leisure and Manufacturing.
The biggest gainer was Education and Health Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 39,000+ jobs, followed by Retail and Professional Services which each gained roughly 31,000 jobs, Leisure gained 21,000 jobs and manufacturing gained another 18,000 on top of consistently high gains for the last few months. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased to $928.74.
(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)
How to read this chart:
Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:
Bubble Size tells us:
May 2018, Seasonally Adjusted
| Industry | Monthly Increase | Average Weekly Earnings | Employment Level |
| Total Private Employment | 218,000 | $928.74 | 126,336,000 |
| Mining and Logging | 4,000 | $1,500.09 | 733,000 |
| Construction | 25,000 | $1,174.14 | 7,210,000 |
| Manufacturing | 18,000 | $1,097.52 | 12,673,000 |
| Wholesale trade | 4,200 | $1,189.81 | 5,954,800 |
| Retail trade | 31,100 | $579.70 | 15,970,300 |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 18,700 | $940.41 | 5,309,300 |
| Utilities | -1,100 | $1,689.89 | 554,400 |
| Information | 6,000 | $1,418.40 | 2,775,000 |
| Financial Activities | 8,000 | $1,303.88 | 8,559,000 |
| Professional and Business Services | 31,000 | $1,164.92 | 20,891,000 |
| Education and Health Services | 39,000 | $887.70 | 23,563,000 |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 21,000 | $413.95 | 16,281,000 |
| Other Services | 13,000 | $772.53 | 5,862,000 |
On Friday October 6th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of September. Every month the BLS conducts two surveys one contacts a sampling of households and the other collects data from businesses. Then they massage some of the numbers to “Seasonally Adjust” them and release them to the media.
According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September (released October 6th) is 4.2% DOWN from 4.4% in August. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 4.1% down from 4.5% in August.
Seasonal adjustment provides something like a moving average leveling out the bumps due to normal seasonal variations. See: Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for more information about Seasonal Adjustment.
According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:
“The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. “
See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.
In the very next paragraph, based on the Household Unemployment Survey, he said, “The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Both measures were down over the year.”
Declining unemployment means more jobs! So which is it 331,000 more jobs? -33,000 fewer jobs? Or 340,000 more jobs? [Read more…] about September Unemployment Rate Down