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You are here: Home / Archives for Bubble

Bubble

Latino Unemployment Lower than Asian Unemployment for First Time

September 5, 2020 by Tim McMahon

Adjusted U3 Unemployment

Employment Increased by 1.5 Million in August

Latino unemployment is lower than Asian unemployment for the first time since the BLS began tracking Asian unemployment separately.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 4th.

  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 10.5% to 8.5%!
  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 10.2% to 8.4%!
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 16.8% to 14.3%!
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 61.4% to 61.7%.
  • Unadjusted Employment up from 139.063 to 140.598 million.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 1.4 million in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points to 8.4 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
In August, employment rose in several major industry sectors. A gain in government largely reflected the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, in professional and business services, in leisure and hospitality, and in education and health services.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

Looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 139.100 million jobs for July, they subtracted 37,000 jobs from that estimate.
So currently they are saying 139.063 million jobs for July and 140.598 million jobs for August which is an increase of  1,535,000 jobs based on their updated estimates.

[Read more…] about Latino Unemployment Lower than Asian Unemployment for First Time

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, Bubble, Charts, employment, Ethnicity, Sector, unemployment

May Unemployment Still Low

June 8, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 PercentThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for  May on June 7th. Although Unemployment is still at record lows job creation is less than expected.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The U.S. economy created 75,000 jobs in May and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent. However, economists projected a 175,000 jobs gain and instead only got 75,000 so they were disappointed but that didn’t stop the stock market with the DOW gaining over 1% in a single day.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent.
Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care… 
In May, 4.4 million people were working part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers),
down by 299,000 from the previous month and by 565,000 over the year.”

Key factors in the report were:
Employment in professional and business services increased by 33,000…
Health Care employment rose by 16,000…
Construction employment increased by 4,000…
Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment remains at its lowest rate since December 1969.

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. In unadjusted terms April had 150.942 million jobs and May had 151.629 million for an actual increase of 687,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.6% unchanged from April
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  3.4% up from 3.3% in April but down from 3.9% in March and 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  6.7% down from 6.9% in April and 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
  • Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.629 million up from 150.988 million in April, 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January.
  • Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.8% unchanged from April.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 to find lower levels and remember that was during the boom that followed WWII with a massive loss of the workforce due to the war so we probably won’t see levels that low again.

[Read more…] about May Unemployment Still Low

Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, Bubble, Charts, employment, Sector, U-3, U-6, U-6 Unemployment, unemployment

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