BLS

April Unemployment Lowest since 1969

May 4, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for April on May 3^rd and it is much better than anyone expected.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The U.S. economy created 263,000 jobs in April and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent.

That far exceeded the 180,000 estimated by economists. Last month the economists projected a 175,000 jobs gain and instead got 196,000 for two excellent months in a row.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“In April, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent. Over the month, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. The April employment gain compares with an average monthly gain of 213,000 over the prior 12 months. (The prior 12-month average incorporates revisions for February and March, which increased nonfarm payroll employment by 16,000 on net.)”

Key factors in the report were:
Employment in professional and business services increased by 76,000…
Construction employment rose by 33,000…
Employment in health care increased by 27,000…
Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment is the lowest rate since December 1969.

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. In unadjusted terms March had 149.862 million jobs while April had 150.988 million jobs for an actual increase of 1,126,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key April Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.6% Down from 3.8% in March
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.3% down from 3.9% in March and 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 6.9% down from 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 150.988 million up from 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January.
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.8% down from 63.0% in March and from the peak of 63.2% in February.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 to find lower levels and remember that was during the boom that followed WWII with a massive loss of the workforce due to the war so we probably won’t see levels that low again.

March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

April 6, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for March on April 5^th and it has the market pundits celebrating. Last month they worried over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs.

This month once again the projections were for 175,000 new jobs but the BLS says there were 195,000 new jobs so the market is happy.

As we said in the Current Unemployment Chart commentary:

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services… The employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent in March and has been either 60.6 percent or 60.7 percent since October 2018… Health care added 49,000 jobs in March and 398,000 over the past 12 months… Employment in professional and technical services grew by 34,000 in March and 311,000 over the past 12 months. “

Key factors in the report were the unemployment rate for Women dropped to another mega low of 3.3% from 3.6% last month.
Black unemployment was 6.7% and Hispanic Unemployment was 4.7%.

Last month the media was unpleasantly surprised by the Jobs report being lower than the consensus and this month they were pleasantly surprised by the higher than expected jobs. “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected that the jobs report would show solid growth by 175,000 jobs” but instead the report showed 196,000 “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs created, “making March the 102nd straight month of job growth”. In unadjusted terms February had 149.867 million jobs while March had 149.133 million jobs for an actual increase of 724,000 jobs.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.8% unchanged from February but down from 4.0% in January, and 3.9% in December.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.9% down from 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January, but above the 3.7% in December.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.5% down from 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December.
Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.867 up from 149.143 in February and 148.295 million in January.
February Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.0% down from the peak of 63.2% in February, and 63.1% in December.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about March Unemployment Numbers Celebrated

January Employment the Good and Bad

February 2, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for January on February 1^st. “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 is 4.0% up from 3.9% in December. Unadjusted U-3 was 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.

Looking back, Seasonally Adjusted U-3 started 2017 at 4.8% then it bounced around between 4.3% and 4.4% from April through October 2017, then it stayed at 4.1% from October 2017 through March 2018. It bounced between 3.8% and 4.0% from April through August 2018 before falling to 3.7% in September – November. So unemployment is currently at the same level as it was from April through August 2018.

Key January Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% up from 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% up from 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.8% up from 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
Unadjusted Employment- 148.201 million down from 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
January Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9%.
100th straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment

As I have been saying for a while [Read more…] about January Employment the Good and Bad

December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

January 5, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for December on January 4^thand some are calling it a “monster” jobs report causing the DOW to gain almost 747 points (3.29%). The reason for this is that the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs number was up 312,000 while the consensus was expecting an increase of only 176,000.

However all is not roses in employment land. There are a few thorns in the jobs report. Both Adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment were actually up and Unadjusted Employment was down.

Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.7% in November. Unadjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.5% in November. Unadjusted U-6 was also up from 7.2% in November to 7.5% in December. Unadjusted Employment- 151.190 million down from 151.244 million in November. All of this sounds Bad! The major factor that the market has latched onto in this report is the Labor Force Participation Rate which has bounced above 63% for the first time since 2014. See Labor Force Participation below for more.

As I have been saying for a while typically unemployment doesn’t stay below 4% for very long. As we can see from the chart below the dip in 2006-7 didn’t even get below 4%. The 2000 dip only spent a couple of months below 4%. The 1960, 1973, ’79 and ’89 dips didn’t get below 4% at all.

The three major exceptions are: [Read more…] about December “Monster” Jobs Report (or is it?)

October Employment Hits New Record High

November 3, 2018 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for October on November 2^nd. Unadjusted U-3 and U-6 Unemployment is down again and “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment U-3 was 3.7% for the second month in a row. This is the lowest level since December 1969 when it was 3.5%. The lowest level reached in the 1968-1969 timeframe was 3.4% where it hovered from September 1968 through May 1969. The only other time that unemployment was this low since they began tracking unemployment in 1948 was briefly in 1948 and again in 1951-53.

Employment is at an all time record 150.753 million the previous high was set in June 2018. Last month employment was 149.738 million so the actual increase in jobs was over 1 million, although the “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs increase was “only” 250,000. Even that was significantly higher than the projected 208,000.

Previous Record Low Unemployment

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1965	4.9%	5.1%	4.7%	4.8%	4.6%	4.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.2%	4.1%	4.0%
1966	4.0%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.8%
1967	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%	3.8%	3.8%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
1968	3.7%	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
1969	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.7%	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%
1970	3.9%	4.2%	4.4%	4.6%	4.8%	4.9%	5.0%	5.1%	5.4%	5.5%	5.9%	6.1%

Key October Employment and Unemployment Numbers

Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% unchanged from September down from 3.9% in August.
Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.5% down from 3.6% in September and 3.9% in August and 4.1% in July and 4.2% in June.
Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.0% down from 7.1% in September and 7.4% in August and 7.9% in July, 8.1% in June.
Employment 150.753 million up from 149.741 million in September. (Yes over a Million more jobs!)
October Labor Force Participation Rate 62.9% up from 62.7% in September. (Higher is Better)

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

The Differential between U3 and U6 Remains Near September 2006 Lows

Last month the differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) was at 3.5% and remains there for the 3rd month in a row.

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below [Read more…] about October Employment Hits New Record High

Unemployment Rates by State July 2018

August 17, 2018 by Tim McMahon

According to today’s U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Unemployment rates by state, Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for July fell over the previous month in 11 states, were higher in 2 states, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia. Ten states saw jobless rate decreases from July 2017 levels and 40 states and D.C. had little or no change.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 6 states in July 2018, decreased in 1 state, and was virtually unchanged in 43 states and D.C. Over the year, 34 states added nonfarm payroll jobs and 16 states and D.C. were essentially unchanged.

In the following map we can see the states with the lowest unemployment are light colored while the higher unemployment states are darker colored.

Unemployment

“Oregon lowest unemployment since 1976”

Hawaii had the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in July, at 2.1%. At 3.9% Oregon set a new series low since tracking began in 1976. At 6.9% Alaska had the highest jobless rate, not counting Puerto Rico’s 9.1%. In total, 15 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 3.9 percent, 10 states plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had higher rates, and 25 states had [Read more…] about Unemployment Rates by State July 2018

Was the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website Really Hacked?

July 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

This morning when I went to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website I received a disturbing message. It said I needed to be careful because my “Connection was not Private”.

“Attackers might be trying to steal my information from data.BLS.gov.”

Well, that doesn’t sound good. So since that was inside my Chrome browser I figured I should try a different browser to see if it was my problem.

So I tried Firefox and got this:

OK so maybe it’s not hackers just somebody screwed up at the BLS.

Actually, I could get to the home page https://www.bls.gov/ .

I just couldn’t get to any data pages like these:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU04000000

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

With a bit more digging around (clicking the “advanced” link) I found that [Read more…] about Was the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website Really Hacked?

December Retail Employment Down

January 6, 2018 by Tim McMahon

On Friday January 5^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of December. Many of the numbers remained unchanged from November which was also unchanged from October.

Unemployment

According to the BLS Seasonally Adjusted U-3 was 4.1% since October while Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% for three months. Unadjusted U-6 unemployment which is a broader measure of Unemployment rose from 7.6% in October to 7.7% in November to 8.0% in December. This is still significantly better than a year ago when in November 2016 Unadjusted U-6 was 9% and December was 9.1%.

Typically January sees an uptick in unemployment as all the seasonal employees get laid-off. So we would expect some sort of uptick next month.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6 percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change.”

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Employment

Back in October, employment was 147,952,000 in November it rose to 148,526,000 but then it fell slightly in December to 148,346,000 for a net loss from November to December of 180,000 jobs. The BLS Commissioner’s report however said, “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in December…” That is because he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. Meaning that although actual jobs are down, they are down by 148,000 less than average for this time of year.

See Current Employment Commentary and Historical Employment Commentary

Labor Force Participation Rate

You might be wondering if [Read more…] about December Retail Employment Down

October Unemployment Rate Down Again

November 4, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday November 3^rd the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of October.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for October is 4.1% DOWN from 4.2% in September and 4.4% in August. Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment was 4.8% in January and 4.9% a year ago (October 2016).

The current “Unadjusted” rate is 3.9% down from 4.1% in September and 4.5% in August. Unadjusted U-3 was 5.1% in January and 4.7% a year ago (October 2016).

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

Seasonal adjustment provides something like a moving average leveling out the bumps due to normal seasonal variations. See: Unadjusted vs. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for more information about Seasonal Adjustment.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

September Unemployment Rate Down

October 7, 2017 by Tim McMahon

On Friday October 6^th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of September. Every month the BLS conducts two surveys one contacts a sampling of households and the other collects data from businesses. Then they massage some of the numbers to “Seasonally Adjust” them and release them to the media.

According to the BLS, the current “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for September (released October 6^th) is 4.2% DOWN from 4.4% in August. The current “Unadjusted” rate is 4.1% down from 4.5% in August.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. “

See: Current Unemployment Rate Chart for more info.

In the very next paragraph, based on the Household Unemployment Survey, he said, “The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 331,000 to 6.8 million. Both measures were down over the year.”

Declining unemployment means more jobs! So which is it 331,000 more jobs? -33,000 fewer jobs? Or 340,000 more jobs? [Read more…] about September Unemployment Rate Down