August Unemployment

August 2024 Jobs Report

September 7, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 6^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% down from 4.3% in July
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% down from 4.5% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.0% down from 8.2% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 158.650 million up from 158.387 million
Next data release October 4^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in August increased by 205,000 while the Civilian non-institutional population (a relatively narrow definition) increased by 212,000 over the same period so jobs didn’t even keep up with the population.

To make matters worse, jobs decreased by -947,000 in July and then the BLS announced the March 2024 Jobs numbers will be adjusted down by 818,000 in January. So, we can expect the January adjustment report to show all the numbers for 2024 to be pretty much fiction.

But… According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in August. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.445 million for July
which they adjusted down -58,000 to 158.387 million in today’s report .

They are currently reporting 158.650 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 205,000 jobs based on their originally reported July numbers. But still below the 159.392 million originally reported in June and not that much different than the 158.461 originally reported last November. The LFPR was unchanged from July at 62.7%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market peaked on August 30th and has fallen since then and the jobs report didn’t help stem the decline. After the Friday jobs report the NYSE fell another 1.14%. Our NYSE ROC chart created based on August month-end numbers showed a cross above the top line of a long-term channel and we said “The market is definitely at a point of exuberance. We can expect it to correct back down to at least the yellow Mid-Term Support.”

The current drop just brings the NYSE back within the channel, so it still has a long way to go to get to the channel mid-point.

On the geopolitical front, Hamas killed several hostages rather than let them be rescued. So the market still fears a war in the Middle East. The Japanese financial problems seem to have settled down now and the market is anticipating a FED rate cut shortly.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

Blue State Unemployment is 33.33% Higher Than Red States

September 18, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Unemployment by State- August 2021

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Unemployment rates for the country on the first Friday of the month. A couple of weeks later they release the breakdown for each of the fifty U.S. states. On September 17^th 2021, they released the individual state unemployment numbers for August 2021.

According to the report, “Unemployment rates were lower in August in 15 states and the District of Columbia and stable in 35 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-nine states and the District had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and one state was little changed. The national unemployment rate, 5.2 percent, declined by 0.2 percentage point over the month and was 3.2 points lower than in August 2020. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 11 states, decreased in 3 states, and was essentially unchanged in 36 states and the District of Columbia in August 2021. Over the year, 49 states and the District added nonfarm payroll jobs and 1 state was essentially unchanged.”

Seasonally Adjusted State Unemployment Levels

The following table provides [Read more…] about Blue State Unemployment is 33.33% Higher Than Red States

August Unemployment Report

September 7, 2019 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 6^th. Unemployment is still near record lows. According to the BLS, the “Seasonally Adjusted” Unemployment Rate for August is unchanged at 3.7% for the 3^rd month in a row. But up from 3.6% in May and down from 3.8% in February and March.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in federal government rose, largely reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in health care and financial activities, while mining lost jobs.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” in reality there were 151.517 million people employed in August up from 151.169 million employed in July. Although the BLS originally reported 151.183 jobs for July.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key August Employment and Unemployment Numbers

This month’s Unemployment report was full of positive news.

Seasonally adjusted Unemployment remained at historically low levels.
Unadjusted U-3 was Down.
Unadjusted U-6 remains good.
Labor Force Participation Up Again
Unadjusted Employment Up

Key factors in the BLS report were:

Health care employment increased by 24,000 and 392,000 over the past 12 months.

Financial activities employment rose by 15,000, with nearly half of the gain occurring in insurance carriers and related activities (+7,000). Financial activities has added 111,000 jobs over the year.

Not sure if this is good or bad but…

“Social assistance employment continued on an upward trend in August (+13,000). Within the industry, individual and family services added 17,000 jobs. Social assistance has added 100,000 jobs in the last 6 months.”