August

August 2024 Jobs Report

September 7, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 6^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% down from 4.3% in July
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% down from 4.5% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.0% down from 8.2% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 158.650 million up from 158.387 million
Next data release October 4^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in August increased by 205,000 while the Civilian non-institutional population (a relatively narrow definition) increased by 212,000 over the same period so jobs didn’t even keep up with the population.

To make matters worse, jobs decreased by -947,000 in July and then the BLS announced the March 2024 Jobs numbers will be adjusted down by 818,000 in January. So, we can expect the January adjustment report to show all the numbers for 2024 to be pretty much fiction.

But… According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in August. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.445 million for July
which they adjusted down -58,000 to 158.387 million in today’s report .

They are currently reporting 158.650 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 205,000 jobs based on their originally reported July numbers. But still below the 159.392 million originally reported in June and not that much different than the 158.461 originally reported last November. The LFPR was unchanged from July at 62.7%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market peaked on August 30th and has fallen since then and the jobs report didn’t help stem the decline. After the Friday jobs report the NYSE fell another 1.14%. Our NYSE ROC chart created based on August month-end numbers showed a cross above the top line of a long-term channel and we said “The market is definitely at a point of exuberance. We can expect it to correct back down to at least the yellow Mid-Term Support.”

The current drop just brings the NYSE back within the channel, so it still has a long way to go to get to the channel mid-point.

On the geopolitical front, Hamas killed several hostages rather than let them be rescued. So the market still fears a war in the Middle East. The Japanese financial problems seem to have settled down now and the market is anticipating a FED rate cut shortly.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

August 2023 Unemployment Report

September 2, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 1^st2023.

August Unemployment Up Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.5%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% up from 7.1%
Labor Force Participation was 62.8% up from 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.034 to 156.302 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was up,
slightly more people were working in August than in July.
Total Employed went up from 156.034 million in July to 156.302 million in August.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, social assistance, and construction. Employment in transportation and warehousing declined.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.126 million for July which they adjusted to 156.034 million. So they subtracted 92,000 jobs for July. They are currently reporting 156.302 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 176,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 268,000 based on their updated numbers.

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

August Unemployment Improves as Pandemic Benefits Expire

September 4, 2021 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment / unemployment report for August.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.7% to 5.3%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.4% to 5.2%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 9.6% to 8.9%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 146.544 million to 146.856 million

The Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which extends unemployment benefits by up to 24 weeks for those who have exhausted regular unemployment aid, and the $300 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits, are due to expire on September 6. This may be the motivation some unemployed individuals needed to get back to work. Many have complained that the government assistance was paying certain people at the lower end of the payscale more to stay home than they could earn by going to work.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August, notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…

Originally the BLS reported 146.470 for July which they adjusted to 146.544 million. For August they are currently saying employment is 146.856 million which is actually an increase of 386,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 312,000 based on their updated numbers.