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August 2025 Employment Situation

September 6, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 5^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% Up from 4.2%
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% Down from 4.6% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% Down from 8.3% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.3% Up from 62.2%
Employment- 159.410 million Up from 159.210 million
Next data release October 3, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in August, Unadjusted Unemployment was down, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction…

Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) and is down by 97,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally, the BLS reported employment of 159.227 million jobs for July,
which they adjusted slightly to 159.210 million in September.

They are currently reporting 159.410 million jobs for August, which is an increase of 200,000 jobs based on their new numbers or 183,000 based on their original numbers. The LFPR increased from 62.2% to 62.3%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up from 4.2% to 4.3%. As we can see, unemployment is 0.9% above the January and April lows of 2023 but relatively unchanged over the last year.

June Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Down

July 4, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 3^rd,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Down from 4.2%
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% Up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U6- 8.1% Up from 7.4% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.3% Down from 62.4%
Employment- 160.475 million Up from 159.958 million
Next data release August 1, 2025

Summary:

Total Employed increased in June, Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was down, but Unadjusted Unemployment increased. Economists were predicting a bad report, but a superficial look makes this appear to be a good report. This shocked the legacy media, thinking that it turned out better than expected. But a deeper look shows cracks appearing. Wages pretty much across the board fell, with average weekly earnings down slightly. And U6 unadjusted unemployment went up from 7.4% to 8.1% and U3 unadjusted unemployment went up from 4.0% to 4.4%. Typically, June unemployment increases due to students entering the workforce, but…

According to ADP the economy lost -33,000 jobs…

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024…”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.964 million for May
which they adjusted slightly to 159.958 million in July.

They are currently reporting 160.475 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 511,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 517,000 based on their new May numbers. The LFPR decreased from 62.4% to 62.3%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see, unemployment is 0.6% above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and the January and April lows of 2023.

March 2025- Employment / Unemployment Report

April 5, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 4^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from 4.1%
Unadjusted U3- 4.2% Down from 4.5% in February
Unadjusted U6- 7.9% Down from 8.4% in February
Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.5% Up from 62.4%
Employment- 158.506 million Up from 157.950 million
Next data release May 2^nd, 2025

Summary:

The total number of Employed increased in March, and Unadjusted Unemployment was down but Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment was up.

So although Unadjusted Unemployment fell sharply from 4.5% to 4.2% Adjusted Unemployment rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, higher than the average monthly gain of 158,000 over the prior 12 months. In March, job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined.

Health care added 54,000 jobs in March, in line with the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months.

Retail trade added 24,000 jobs in March, as workers returning from a strike contributed to a job gain in food and beverage retailers (+21,000).

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000 in March, about double the prior 12-month average gain of 12,000.

Within government, federal government employment declined by 4,000 in March, following a loss of 11,000 jobs in February. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.983 million for February
which they adjusted slightly to 157.950 million.

They are currently reporting 158.506 million jobs for March which is actually an increase of 523,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up from 62.4% to 62.5%.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.2%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good” it is still lower than the lowest achieved in 2006-2007.

January 2025 BLS Employment Report

February 8, 2025 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 7^th,2025.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.0% Down from December
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% Up from December
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% Up from December
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% Up
Employment 157.091 million Down from 159.943 million
Next data release March 7^th, 2025

Summary:
The BLS sent mixed signals in January, with the Commissioner’s report stating a rise in employment and a fall in adjusted unemployment. However, the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report shows a decline in the number of employed and a massive downward adjustment in employment for all of 2023 and 2024.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry…

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent in January, after accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls. The number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little over the month.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.458 million for December
which they just adjusted to 159.943 million.

They are currently reporting 157.091 million jobs for January which is actually a decrease of 3,367,000 jobs compared to their originally reported numbers or a decrease of 2,852,000 based on their new numbers.

Despite the drop in employment the LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6% which could indicate an increase in people entering the labor force rather than an increase in jobs.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.0%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good”.

October 2024 Employment / Unemployment Report

November 2, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 1^st,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U3- 3.9% Unchanged from September
Unadjusted U6- 7.3% Unchanged from September
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% down from September
Employment 160.007 million up from 159.181 million
Next data release December 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased very slightly in October, Unadjusted Unemployment was unchanged, Seasonally adjusted Unemployment was unchanged. Virtually everything was unchanged except LFPR fell by 0.1%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity…

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

So, for the month little changed, but on a year-over-year basis the economy is worse with more unemployed people.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.177 million for September
which they adjusted slightly to 159.181 million in November.

They are currently reporting 160.007 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 83,000 jobs over their initial numbers or 82,600 over their revised numbers. The LFPR was down slightly from 62.7% to 62.6%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market initially rallied but lost steam mid-day and ended up down for the day. As we said last month, “the market doesn’t like uncertainty so it is waiting for election results before making any major moves. Other uncertainty revolves around the Middle-East and Russia.” Despite a rally in-between, the NYSE is roughly at the same place it was on August 30^th.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, unemployment is above pre-COVID lows of 2019 and 0.7% above the January and April lows of 2023.

Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but then returned to the “excellent” range.

At 4.1% it is no longer “Excellent” but still in the “Very Good” range.

July Jobs Report Spooks Stock Market

August 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 2^nd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.3% up from 4.1% in June
Unadjusted U3- 4.5% up from 4.3% in June
Unadjusted U6- 8.2% up from 7.7% in June
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% up from 62.6%
Employment 158.445 million down from 159.360 million
Next data release September 6^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed decreased in July, adjusted and Unadjusted Unemployment was up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 159.392 million for June
which they then adjusted to 159.360 million in August.

They are currently reporting 158.445 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 947,000 jobs based on their original numbers. The LFPR was up at 62.7% but the Employment/Population Ratio was down from 60.1% to 60.0%.

Bad News for the Market?

On Wednesday (prior to the Jobs data release on Friday) the stock market reacted bullishly to FED Chairman Powell’s dovish speech with anticipation of a September rate cut. But then markets reversed course on Thursday on preliminary Employment numbers. But what they failed to recognize is that the worst months (highest unemployment) are usually January, June, and July. So a bad July doesn’t really signify much.

Adding to the market’s woes, Intel dropped a bombshell with its earnings report. The company announced plans to slash jobs and suspend dividends after missing earnings targets and delivering a disappointing sales forecast. Intel shares cratered over 25% in early trading, dragging other chip stocks down with it.

In other news, Israel is suspected of killing a Hamas leader inside Iran. So now the market also fears retaliation by Iran causing a war in the Middle East. In addition to these political problems, Japan is creating financial problems for the U.S. by raising interest rates while other countries are lowering them. As you can see from the chart below, Japan has had zero or near-zero interest rates for almost 30 years. For a brief stretch, their rates got all the way up to 3/4 of 1%! (Horror of Horrors). But since 2008 they have been below 1/3rd of 1%.

This has created what is called the “Carry Trade” where people could borrow Yen almost interest-free and invest that money in higher-yielding things like Nvidia or other NASDAQ stocks or even lower-risk things like U.S. Treasury Bills. However, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising rates, the free money is drying up, which creates selling pressure on the NASDAQ.

The NYSE was down -1.79% on Friday after being down -1.16% on Thursday.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

June Employment Weak

July 6, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
Next data release August 2^nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918 million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

November 2023 Employment Situation

December 9, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 8^th,2023.

Employment Up- Unemployment Down

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% down from 3.9% in October
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6% in October
Unadjusted U-6 was 6.7% down from 6.8% in October
Labor Force Participation was 62.7% down from 62.8% in October
Unadjusted Employment rose from 157.984 million to 158.461 million

Summary:
Total Employed increased in November, Unemployment was down, and Labor Force Participation was up.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate
edged down to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting
the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined…

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers (11.4 percent) edged down
in November. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), Whites
(3.3 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.6 percent) showed
little or no change over the month.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.984 million for October which uncharacteristically they didn’t adjust in November. They are currently reporting 158.461 million jobs for November which is actually an increase of 477,000 jobs. The LFPR rose from 62.7 to 62.8%.

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

July 2023 Unemployment Down

August 5, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for July on August 4^th2023.

Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% unchanged
Unadjusted U-6 was 7.1% down from 7.2%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 156.945 to 156.126 million

Summary:
Despite the fact that the adjusted U3 unemployment rate was down, and they claim more people were working
there were actually fewer people working in July than in June.
Total Employed went down from 156.945 million in June to only 156.126 million in July.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Employment Statistics Program (Formerly the Establishment Survey report) we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.963 million for June, which they adjusted to 156.945 million. So they subtracted 18,000 jobs for June. They are reporting 156.126 million jobs for July which is actually a decrease of 837,000 jobs based on their original estimates or a decrease of 819,000 based on their updated numbers.

BLS Source

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is at the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.” And that is what happened before dropping slightly in July. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

May Employment and Unemployment Up?

June 3, 2023 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for May on June 2^nd2023.

Unemployment up Slightly

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% up from 3.4%
Unadjusted U-3 was 3.4% up from 3.1%
Unadjusted U-6 was 6.4% Up from 6.1%
Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 155.386 to 156.303 million

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Job gains occurred in professional and business services, government, health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report, we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 155.337 million for April which they adjusted to 155.386 million. So they added 49,000 jobs for April. They are reporting 156.306 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 969,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 920,000 based on their updated numbers.

Current Employment Rate Chart

Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.” And that is precisely what is happening. Current levels are within the “Green Zone”.