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June Employment Weak

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 5th, 2024.

Employment / Unemployment 

Adj U3 Icon 4-1-up

  • Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.1% up from 4.0% in May
  • Unadjusted U3- 4.3% up from 3.7% in May
  • Unadjusted U6- 7.7% up from 7.1% in May
  • Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% up from 62.5%
  • Employment 159.392 million up from 158.845 million
  • Next data release August 2nd, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in June, Unadjusted Unemployment was up sharply, but Seasonally adjusted Unemployment increased only slightly.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little in June. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.6 percent and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.918  million for May
which they now adjusted to 158.845 million.

They are currently reporting 159.392 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 474,000 jobs compare to what they first reported or 547,000 compared to their new numbers.

The LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6%.

Good News for the Market?

In the perverse stock market of these post-pandemic days, the market is looking for an excuse for the FED to cut interest rates so “Bad News is Good News” for the market.

The news wasn’t bad enough to spark a major rally but after falling initially, at around 10:30 AM the market turned around and rallied for the rest of the day taking it to slightly above the previous day’s close. So basically a giant “nothing burger”.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment remains above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate June 24

[Read more…] about June Employment Weak

March: Full Employment?

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for March on April 7th 2023.

Employment Up and Unemployment Down

Current Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

  • Adjusted U-3 was 3.5% down from 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.3% to 6.8%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.5% to 62.6%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 153.997 to 154.517 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. 
Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care.”
You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 153.955 million for February which they adjusted to 153.997 million. So they added 42,000 jobs for February. They are reporting 154.517 million jobs for March which is actually an increase of 562,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 520,000 based on their updated numbers.

Full Employment?

Full Employment is when everyone who wants a job has one. It is generally considered to be slightly above 3%. Although, other factors, such as unemployment benefits, can shift the level higher or lower. So, if unemployment benefits are extended from 6 months to 1 year, people will tend to stay unemployed longer, thus raising the unemployment rate.

In the following chart, we can see four examples of employment continuing to rise, but unemployment flattens out at just over 3%.

Emp vs Unemployment Chart

Full employment is not considered to be at zero percent because even when employers are having difficulty finding employees, some people are still unemployed due to either structural unemployment (mismatch between worker skills and job requirements, i.e., not enough training) or simply because they quit their job knowing it would be easy to find another (hopefully better) job. Often referred to as frictional unemployment (there will always be people who have quit or have lost a seasonal job and are in the process of getting a new job). See: Highly Skilled Worker Shortage in a Recession?

If the unemployment rate stays constant, but more people are working, where are these extra workers coming from?

Somehow the workforce has to be growing to accommodate these newly created jobs. They could be long-term unemployed (no longer counted in the workforce) returning to the workforce, they could be immigrants entering the workforce, or possibly retired people coming out of retirement because of an offer too good to turn down.

ADP® National Employment Report

According to ADP® In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, private employment was up in March.

ADP: Private employers added 145,000 jobs in March.

ADP Economist

In other words, Ms. Richardson is saying that a 145,000 increase in jobs is not as high as she would have expected for a March with strong growth. And “pay growth” has plateaued and decreased slightly. Last month, “Job stayers” averaged a 7.2% annual increase in pay, while this month, the average annual increase is down to 6.9%.

I’ve added some arrows to their private employment chart to indicate the slope of the line. The long green arrow shows the rapid post-COVID rebound in employment. Then in early 2022, the rate of increase slowed (small yellow arrow). Then around March 2022, the rate of increase picked up again (small green arrow). Perhaps, that is what Ms. Richardson was expecting. But instead, we’ve seen steady growth without the turbo boost of last year.

ADP us-private-employment cHART

ADP Private Employment by Firm Size

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.
This month, small companies are reversing the downsizing they did last month, while larger companies cut way back on their hiring.

March ADP Changes:

Change by Est Size for Mar 2023

Comparing March changes to February changes we can see that increases shifted from large firm hiring to small firm hiring.

February ADP Changes:

Change by Est Size for Feb 2023

ADP Also Tracks Salary Changes:

[Read more…] about March: Full Employment?

Unemployment Rates by State October 2022

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On Friday, November 18th, 2022, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its breakdown of the unemployment rates for each individual state for October.

In the chart below, the lightest colors represent the states with the lowest unemployment rates.

Unemployment by State Oct 2022Looking at the above map, we can see that generally, the lowest unemployment states run diagonally across the country, starting in Florida and ending in Montana and Idaho. Conversely, the states with the highest unemployment are located in the North East, the South West, and West Coast.  Of course, minor exceptions exist, but generally, it holds.

October 2022 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate by State Table (Alphabetical)

State October 2022(P) Rate
Alabama 2.7
Alaska 4.5
Arizona 3.9
Arkansas 3.6
California 4.0
Colorado 3.6
Connecticut 4.3
Delaware 4.3
District of Columbia 4.8
Florida 2.7
Georgia 2.9
Hawaii 3.4
Idaho 2.9
Illinois 4.6
Indiana 3.0
Iowa 2.9
Kansas 2.8
Kentucky 3.9
Louisiana 3.3
Maine 3.6
Maryland 4.5
Massachusetts 3.5
Michigan 4.2
Minnesota 2.1
Mississippi 3.8
Missouri 2.6
Montana 3.0
Nebraska 2.4
Nevada 4.6
New Hampshire 2.4
New Jersey 3.5
New Mexico 4.3
New York 4.4
North Carolina 3.8
North Dakota 2.3
Ohio 4.2
Oklahoma 3.4
Oregon 4.1
Pennsylvania 4.0
Rhode Island 3.4
South Carolina 3.3
South Dakota 2.4
Tennessee 3.5
Texas 4.0
Utah 2.1
Vermont 2.3
Virginia 2.7
Washington 3.8
West Virginia 4.0
Wisconsin 3.3
Wyoming 3.5

States with the Highest Unemployment Rates

The record for the highest unemployment goes as usual to the State that is not really a “state”, i.e., D.C. at 4.8%. Puerto Rico is usually ranked among those with the worst unemployment but avoided that “honor” this month by not having its data available. Slightly better than D.C. is Nevada and Illinois at 4.6%, followed by Maryland, and Alaska at 4.5%.

[Read more…] about Unemployment Rates by State October 2022

May 2022- Unemployment by State

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On Friday, June 17th, 2022, The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its breakdown of the unemployment rates for each individual state for May.

In the chart below, the lightest colors represent the states with the lowest unemployment rates.

Unemployment By State May 2022Looking at the above map, we can see that the lowest unemployment states run diagonally across the country, starting in Florida and ending in Montana and Idaho. Conversely, the states with the highest unemployment are located in the North East, the South West, and West Coast.  Of course, minor exceptions exist, but generally, it holds.

May 2022 Unemployment Rate by State Table (Alphabetical)

State May 2022 Unemployment Rate May 2021 Unemployment Rate 12-month change
Alabama 2.7% 3.6% -0.9%
Alaska 4.7% 6.8% -2.1%
Arizona 3.2% 5.4% -2.2%
Arkansas 3.2% 4.4% -1.2%
California 4.3% 7.9% -3.6%
Colorado 3.5% 5.8% -2.3%
Connecticut 4.2% 6.7% -2.5%
Delaware 4.5% 5.7% -1.2%
District of Columbia 5.7% 6.9% -1.2%
Florida 3.0% 4.9% -1.9%
Georgia 3.0% 4.1% -1.1%
Hawaii 4.2% 5.9% -1.7%
Idaho 2.5% 3.7% -1.2%
Illinois 4.6% 6.5% -1.9%
Indiana 2.2% 4.0% -1.8%
Iowa 2.7% 4.5% -1.8%
Kansas 2.3% 3.4% -1.1%
Kentucky 3.8% 4.7% -0.9%
Louisiana 4.0% 5.9% -1.9%
Maine 3.2% 4.9% -1.7%
Maryland 4.0% 5.7% -1.7%
Massachusetts 3.9% 5.9% -2.0%
Michigan 4.3% 6.2% -1.9%
Minnesota 2.0% 3.4% -1.4%
Mississippi 4.0% 6.0% -2.0%
Missouri 3.1% 4.5% -1.4%
Montana 2.4% 3.6% -1.2%
Nebraska 1.9% 2.5% -0.6%
Nevada 4.9% 7.8% -2.9%
New Hampshire 2.1% 3.7% -1.6%
New Jersey 3.9% 6.6% -2.7%
New Mexico 5.1% 7.2% -2.1%
New York 4.4% 7.4% -3.0%
North Carolina 3.4% 5.0% -1.6%
North Dakota 2.6% 3.8% -1.2%
Ohio 3.9% 5.4% -1.5%
Oklahoma 2.8% 4.4% -1.6%
Oregon 3.6% 5.6% -2.0%
Pennsylvania 4.6% 6.7% -2.1%
Rhode Island 2.9% 6.0% -3.1%
South Carolina 3.3% 4.1% -0.8%
South Dakota 2.3% 3.2% -0.9%
Tennessee 3.3% 4.6% -1.3%
Texas 4.2% 5.9% -1.7%
Utah 2.0% 2.8% -0.8%
Vermont 2.3% 3.6% -1.3%
Virginia 3.0% 4.1% -1.1%
Washington 3.9% 5.5% -1.6%
West Virginia 3.5% 5.4% -1.9%
Wisconsin 2.9% 4.1% -1.2%
Wyoming 3.2% 4.7% -1.5%
Puerto Rico 6.2% 8.1% -1.9%

States with the Highest Unemployment Rates

The record for the highest unemployment goes as usual to the two that are not really “states,” i.e., Puerto Rico and D.C. at 6.2% and 5.7%, respectively. Next comes New Mexico at 5.1%, Nevada at 4.9%, Alaska at 4.7%, Illinois and Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Delaware at 4.5%, New York at 4.4%, and California and Michigan tied for 10th worst place at 4.3%. [Read more…] about May 2022- Unemployment by State

May Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

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May 2022 Employment — Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 flat

 

  • Adjusted U-3 was Unchanged at 3.6%
  • Unadjusted U-3 was Up from 3.3% to 3.4%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Up from 6.6% to 6.7%
  • Labor Force Participation Up from 62.2% to 62.3%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.964 to 151.773 million

 

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined. Nonfarm employment is down by 822,000, or 0.5 percent, from its February 2020 level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
In May, employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality (+84,000)… Employment in professional and business services increased by 75,000 in May… Transportation and warehousing added 47,000 jobs…”
You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Household Survey” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in the BLS “Establishment Survey”

But looking at the Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 150.938 million for April which they adjusted to 150.964 million. So they added 26,000 jobs disappeared for April. They are reporting 151.773 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 835,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 809,000 based on their updated numbers.

Surprisingly, Retail LOST -60,700 jobs.

According to Trading Economics:
The US unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent in May of 2022, the same as in the previous two months, remaining the lowest since February 2020 and compared with market expectations of 3.5 percent. The number of unemployed people increased by 9 thousand to 5.950 million, while employment levels rose by 321 thousand to 158.426 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.3 percent in May from a 3-month low of 62.2 percent in April.

Stroudsburg  PA News headline says “Lowest Unemployment Rate since 1969” … Umm No! Not really…  the article text backtracks a little adding the word “about” saying…  “about the lowest it has been since 1969.”  I suppose that is “almost true” if you disregard the 4 months in 2019 and 2020 when it was lower (i.e. 3.5%) and 3.6% is almost 3.4%. I guess that is what passes for journalism these days.

Seasonally Adj U-3 Unemployment Rate

[Read more…] about May Employment Up – Unemployment Unchanged

December Unemployment Rates by State

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Unemployment rates fell in 42 states plus the District of Columbia from the previous month. Forty-Eight states along with D.C. had significantly lower unemployment rates than year-ago levels. Iowa and Maine’s unemployment rates have only fallen by -0.2% and -0.3% respectively.

California had the highest number of unemployed individuals at 1.238 million which gave them a 6.5% unemployment rate. The next highest number of unemployed was Texas with 712,828 unemployed and a 5.0% unemployment rate. Puerto Rico had the highest unemployment rate at 7.5%. And Nebraska had the lowest unemployment rate at 1.7%.

In the following chart, bubble size indicates the number of unemployed. The vertical axis indicates the percent change from a year ago, while the horizontal axis indicates the current unemployment rate (in percent).

Unemployment Rate by State Bubble Chart

 

State Unemployment Rate 12-month % Change Number of Unemployed
Alabama 3.1 -1.6 69,854
Alaska 5.7 -0.8 20,233
Arizona 4.1 -2.7 150,043
Arkansas 3.1 -1.8 42,609
California 6.5 -2.8 1,238,037
Colorado 4.8 -2.1 154,292
Connecticut 5.8 -2.4 105,215
Delaware 5.0 -0.9 24,609
District of Columbia 5.8 -3.0 23,741
Florida 4.4 -0.7 466,176
Georgia 2.6 -2.7 135,906
Hawaii 5.7 -4.6 37,057
Idaho 2.4 -1.4 22,088
Illinois 5.3 -2.7 333,136
Indiana 2.7 -1.9 88,240
Iowa 3.5 -0.2 57,907
Kansas 3.3 -1.4 49,796
Kentucky 3.9 -1.7 78,817
Louisiana 4.8 -3.1 98,295
Maine 4.7 -0.3 31,806
Maryland 5.0 -1.8 156,473
Massachusetts 3.9 -4.5 145,093
Michigan 5.6 -2.6 265,115
Minnesota 3.1 -1.6 93,906
Mississippi 4.5 -2.1 56,792
Missouri 3.3 -1.1 101,988
Montana 2.5 -1.7 13,689
Nebraska 1.7 -1.7 17,128
Nevada 6.4 -1.8 99,409
New Hampshire 2.6 -1.2 19,561
New Jersey 6.3 -1.4 280,211
New Mexico 5.8 -2.8 55,640
New York 6.2 -2.5 572,626
North Carolina 3.7 -2.4 188,391
North Dakota 3.1 -1.6 12,297
Ohio 4.5 -1.1 256,392
Oklahoma 2.3 -2.2 42,758
Oregon 4.1 -2.2 89,349
Pennsylvania 5.4 -1.7 337,133
Rhode Island 4.8 -3.1 26,684
South Carolina 3.5 -2.1 85,090
South Dakota 2.6 -0.7 12,173
Tennessee 3.8 -1.8 127,341
Texas 5.0 -1.9 712,828
Utah 1.9 -1.4 31,817
Vermont 2.5 -1.0 7,972
Virginia 3.2 -2.4 136,557
Washington 4.5 -1.8 176,857
West Virginia 3.7 -3.0 28,903
Wisconsin 2.8 -1.2 86,197
Wyoming 3.3 -1.9 9,717
Puerto Rico 7.5 -1.7 82,653

Nebraska had the lowest jobless rate in December, at 1.7 percent, followed by Utah, 1.9 percent. The rates in the following 12 states set new series lows (since 1976): Arkansas (3.1 percent), Georgia (2.6 percent), Idaho (2.4 percent), Indiana (2.7 percent), Kentucky (3.9 percent), Mississippi (4.5 percent), Montana (2.5 percent), Nebraska (1.7 percent), Oklahoma (2.3 percent), Utah (1.9 percent), West Virginia (3.7 percent), and Wisconsin (2.8 percent). California and Nevada had the highest unemployment rates, 6.5 percent, and 6.4 percent, respectively.

Editor’s Note: It is possible that part of the reason that the unemployment rate is so low is that people have withdrawn from the workforce due to COVID fears, homeschooling, or other reasons.

In total, 17 states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rates higher than the U.S. figure of 3.9 percent, 16 states had lower rates, and 17 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 17 states and was essentially unchanged in 33 states and the District of Columbia in December 2021. The largest job gains occurred in California (+50,700), Texas (+50,000), and New York (+45,300). The largest percentage increases occurred in Iowa and West Virginia (+0.8 percent each), followed by Massachusetts, Missouri, and Montana (+0.6 percent each).

Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia and was essentially unchanged in 2 states. The largest job increases occurred in California (+954,400), Texas (+694,400), and Florida (+479,300). The largest percentage increases occurred in Nevada (+7.4 percent), Hawaii (+7.1 percent), and Massachusetts (+6.6 percent).

December Job Growth Fails to Meet Expectations… Again

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December 2021 Unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Adj U3 Icon 3-9

  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 3.9% to 3.7%
  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 4.2% to 3.9%
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 7.4% to 7.2%
  • Labor Force Participation Unchanged at 61.9%
  • Unadjusted Employment rose from 150.098 million to 150.170 million

Job growth in December failed to meet expectations for the 2nd month in a row. Economists had predicted more than 400,000 jobs would be added in the month. Instead, according to the BLS, the U.S. economy added less than half that amount.

On a positive note, Seasonally adjusted unemployment fell from 4.2% to 3.9%.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 199,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9 percent. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. In 2021, job growth averaged 537,000 per month. Employment has increased by 18.8 million since April 2020 but is down by 3.6 million, or 2.3 percent, from its level before the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in February 2020.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)” rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES).”

But looking at the CES report, we see…
Initially, the BLS reported 150.004 million for November, which they adjusted to 150.098 million. For December, they are reporting 150.170 million.
This is an increase of 166,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 72,000 based on their updated numbers.

Although Employment is 6.568 million Above Year-Ago Levels…

Employment numbers are still about 800,000 short of February 2020 numbers, but the Civilian Population has increased by about 2.6 MILLION people since then.

[Read more…] about December Job Growth Fails to Meet Expectations… Again

Blue State Unemployment is 33.33% Higher Than Red States

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Unemployment by State- August 2021

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Unemployment rates for the country on the first Friday of the month. A couple of weeks later they release the breakdown for each of the fifty U.S. states. On September 17th 2021, they released the individual state unemployment numbers for August 2021.

According to the report, “Unemployment rates were lower in August in 15 states and the District of Columbia and stable in 35 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-nine states and the District had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and one state was little changed. The national unemployment rate, 5.2 percent, declined by 0.2 percentage point over the month and was 3.2 points lower than in August 2020. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 11 states, decreased in 3 states, and was essentially unchanged in 36 states and the District of Columbia in August 2021. Over the year, 49 states and the District added nonfarm payroll jobs and 1 state was essentially unchanged.”

 

State Unemployment Rates

 

Seasonally Adjusted State Unemployment Levels

The following table provides [Read more…] about Blue State Unemployment is 33.33% Higher Than Red States

Over 5 Million More Jobs in June

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11.1% Unemployment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 2nd.

More than 5 million People Return to Work in June as COVID restrictions relax.

  • Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 13.0% to 11.2%!
  • Adjusted U-3 was Down from 13.3% to 11.1%!
  • Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 20.7% to 18.3%!
  • Labor Force Participation rose from 60.8% to 61.5%.
  • Unadjusted Employment up by approx. 5.1 million jobs.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined by 2.2 percentage points to 11.1 percent. These improvements reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. 
In June, employment continued to rise in several major industry sectors, with the largest gain in leisure and hospitality. Notable gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

Of course, he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” from the “Current Population Survey (CPS)”
rather than looking at the results reported by actual companies in their “Current Employment Statistics survey (CES)”

But looking at the CES report we see…
Originally the BLS reported 133.342 million jobs for May and then in June, they added 68,000 jobs to that estimate.
So currently they are saying 133.410 million jobs for May and 138.513 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of  5.171 million jobs compared to what they originally reported last month or 5.103 million increase based on their updated estimates.

[Read more…] about Over 5 Million More Jobs in June

3 Ways to Afford Medical Treatment When You’re Between Jobs

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In the midst of COVID-19, it’s safe to say that having appropriate healthcare coverage is a must. But with so many people finding themselves laid off or unemployed, paying monthly insurance premiums can quickly become impossible for many people. 

As dire as the situation seems, there are ways to get the medical attention you deserve. Since most people look for ways to cut corners, health insurance may be the first thing to go. Read on to learn three ways to afford medical treatment when you’re in between jobs.

Medical Treatment

COBRA Coverage

COBRA coverage is a specific type of health insurance that kicks in when someone has been laid off from work. This coverage offers additional coverage for a period up to 36 months. Because the cost of COBRA can be expensive, most employers will shoulder the cost for their employees. Note, not every employer participates in the COBRA program, so check with your employer as soon as possible. [Read more…] about 3 Ways to Afford Medical Treatment When You’re Between Jobs