General

August 2024 Jobs Report

September 7, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for August on September 6^th,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% down from 4.3% in July
Unadjusted U3- 4.4% down from 4.5% in July
Unadjusted U6- 8.0% down from 8.2% in July
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7% unchanged
Employment 158.650 million up from 158.387 million
Next data release October 4^th, 2024

Summary:
Total Employed increased in August increased by 205,000 while the Civilian non-institutional population (a relatively narrow definition) increased by 212,000 over the same period so jobs didn’t even keep up with the population.

To make matters worse, jobs decreased by -947,000 in July and then the BLS announced the March 2024 Jobs numbers will be adjusted down by 818,000 in January. So, we can expect the January adjustment report to show all the numbers for 2024 to be pretty much fiction.

But… According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care…

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in August. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

You can read the full BLS report here.

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.445 million for July
which they adjusted down -58,000 to 158.387 million in today’s report .

They are currently reporting 158.650 million jobs for August which is actually an increase of 205,000 jobs based on their originally reported July numbers. But still below the 159.392 million originally reported in June and not that much different than the 158.461 originally reported last November. The LFPR was unchanged from July at 62.7%.

Bad News for the Market?

The stock market peaked on August 30th and has fallen since then and the jobs report didn’t help stem the decline. After the Friday jobs report the NYSE fell another 1.14%. Our NYSE ROC chart created based on August month-end numbers showed a cross above the top line of a long-term channel and we said “The market is definitely at a point of exuberance. We can expect it to correct back down to at least the yellow Mid-Term Support.”

The current drop just brings the NYSE back within the channel, so it still has a long way to go to get to the channel mid-point.

On the geopolitical front, Hamas killed several hostages rather than let them be rescued. So the market still fears a war in the Middle East. The Japanese financial problems seem to have settled down now and the market is anticipating a FED rate cut shortly.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted U3 Unemployment is well above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%, but is approaching the yellow zone.

January Employment Declines, Adjusted Unemployment Flat

February 3, 2024 by Tim McMahon

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 2^nd,2024.

Employment / Unemployment

Adjusted U-3 was 3.7% unchanged since November
Unadjusted U-3 was 4.1% up from 3.5% in December
Unadjusted U-6 was 8.0% Up from 6.7% in November and 7.0% in December
Labor Force Participation was 62.5% unchanged from December but down from 62.8% in November
Unadjusted Employment fell from 158.261 million to 155.626 million

Summary:
Seasonally Adjusted Employment rose but actual employment decreased in January, Labor Force Participation was unchanged, Seasonal Adjustment indicates employment decline is normal for this time of year.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate
remained at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social
assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
industry…”

“In January, the unemployment rate was 3.7 percent for the third month in a row, and
the number of unemployed people was little changed at 6.1 million…”

“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.3 million,
was little changed in January. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.8 percent of all unemployed people.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 158.228 million for December which they adjusted to 158.261 million in January (for a gain of 33,000 jobs). They are currently reporting 155.626 million jobs for January which is actually a loss of -2,602,000 jobs compared to their original numbers. But January typically loses about this many jobs, so the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed the same.

BLS Source

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made early in 2023. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.

10 Job Hazards Everyone Should Watch Out For No Matter Their Industry

November 8, 2023 by Tim McMahon

Whether you work in construction, healthcare, or finance, there are certain hazards that transcend all industries. Safety is a top priority for any employee, and being aware of potential risks can prevent injuries and save lives. In this post, we’ll be highlighting 10 job hazards that anyone should watch out for, no matter their industry. From slips and falls to repetitive stress injuries, we’ll be covering a range of potential hazards that you should be aware of in order to stay safe on the job.

1. Slips, Trips, and Falls

One of the most common hazards in any workplace is slipping, tripping, or falling. This can be caused by wet or slippery floors, loose cords, or cluttered workspaces. To prevent this hazard, make sure to keep your workplace clean and tidy, wear non-slip shoes, and use caution when walking on uneven surfaces.

Particular places to watch out for in any workspace include stairways, entryways or exits, and high-traffic areas such as hallways. These areas are more prone to hazards due to heavy foot traffic and potential obstructions. It’s important to always have a clear path and avoid running or rushing through these areas, as well as ensuring proper lighting for visibility.

2. Repetitive Strain Injuries

If your job requires a lot of typing or other repetitive tasks, you may be at risk for developing a repetitive strain injury (RSI). These injuries can affect your hands, wrists, and arms and can cause pain and discomfort. To prevent RSIs, take breaks often, use ergonomic equipment, and stretch regularly.

In addition to preventing repetitive strain injuries, it’s important to also know how to treat them if they do occur. This can include rest, ice or heat therapy, physical therapy, and using braces or supports for affected areas. It’s important to listen to your body and seek medical attention if pain persists. [Read more…] about 10 Job Hazards Everyone Should Watch Out For No Matter Their Industry

Understanding the Rules of Workers’ Compensation Benefits – What You Can and Cannot Do

October 24, 2023 by Guest Contributor

Suffering from an injury at work can be a difficult and stressful experience. It not only affects the physical and mental well-being of a person but also can cause a financial burden. If you’ve suffered a work-related injury or a work-related illness, you may be entitled to workers’ compensation benefits. However, it’s important to understand the rules and limitations of workers’ compensation benefits to ensure that you receive the proper compensation.

File a Workers’ Compensation Claim as Soon as Possible

One of the most important things you should do when you have suffered a work-related injury or a work-related illness is to file a workers’ compensation claim as soon as possible. Failing to file a claim within the specified time frame can result in the loss of your right to workers’ compensation benefits. After submitting your workers’ compensation claim, your employer should provide you with a list of approved doctors and specialists that you can choose from for evaluation and treatment.

Attend Medical Appointments and Follow Medical Advice

Once you have filed a workers’ compensation claim, it is important to attend all medical appointments and follow medical advice. This not only helps to ensure that you get the appropriate treatment for your injury or illness, but it also helps to validate your claim. If you fail to attend medical appointments or refuse to follow medical advice, you may jeopardize your claim for workers’ compensation benefits. [Read more…] about Understanding the Rules of Workers’ Compensation Benefits – What You Can and Cannot Do

Building Confidence to Help You Reenter the World

September 17, 2022 by Tim McMahon

Whether you’ve been out of the job force because of school, family obligations, or COVID, returning to the work world can be intimidating. So, developing the self-confidence that is essential for a good job interview, and climbing the corporate ladder is a skill you need to master. Thankfully, there are easy ways to build confidence so you’re ready to reenter “the real world” and achieve your goals.

Improve Your Work-Life Balance

It can be challenging to balance work with your personal life, but it’s essential to your mental and physical health. Finding the right balance can be especially hard when work is stressful. Try to find ways to reduce stress throughout the workday, such as taking a short walk during your lunch break or regular five-minute breathers. Using your vacation days and working remotely on occasion can also help provide a healthy work-life balance. Remember to establish boundaries you’re comfortable with.

Start a Realistic Fitness Routine

Not everyone has the time to spend an hour at the gym each day, but that doesn’t mean you can’t begin a fitness routine. Mayo Clinic notes that it’s recommended that adults get at least 30 minutes of moderate physical activity each day. With a bit of creativity, you’ll find meeting this goal a breeze.

For example, you might park 5–10 minutes away from your office and walk the rest of the way each day. You can take the stairs instead of an elevator at work or when out shopping. Even parking further away on visits to the grocery store can add up. Parents could play active games with their children, like sports, tag, or hide-and-seek.

Investing in a cheap set of free weights can allow you to squeeze in 10 minutes of strength training each day, which is realistic for most people. You might invest in an exercise bike or treadmill, which can help you get in a few minutes of moderate exercise every day.

If you plan to purchase exercise equipment, it helps to read unbiased reviews of the various products available. There are numerous types of exercise equipment on the market, and quality may vary widely between manufacturers. Be sure to check what reviews have to say before spending your hard-earned money.

Eating Healthier

The CDC points out that eating healthier isn’t just about losing weight, although it can help. Eating right also means protecting yourself against illness by boosting your immune system and generally feeling better. If you are feeling generally unwell or lack energy, that can lead to depression and consequently a lack of self-confidence, so maintaining your health can actually help you feel more confident.

One simple way to eat better is to pack lunches for work instead of eating out. You can organize your lunches for the week on Sunday evening if your weekday schedule is too busy. As an added benefit, packing lunches can also save you money.
[Read more…] about Building Confidence to Help You Reenter the World

Using the 9 Box Model for Evaluating Employees

December 11, 2021 by Guest Contributor

So, you want to improve your worker’s performance and tap them for leadership roles. The 9 Box Employee Evaluation System can increase retention rates and job performance. It is essential to use innovative ways to improve productivity and enhance your workforce to have a successful business. Using the 9-box model is a simple tool that assists managers and HR administration in evaluating, categorizing, and improving employee performance.

About the 9-Box Model

The 9-Box Model is used to compare, display, and analyze workers’ work potential and performance. You can view their performance with the help of a user-friendly performance map. It is a talent management template that assists managers and HR specialists in effectively recognizing leaders.

Learn About the Performance of the Employee

With the help of the 9 box model, HR professionals can learn about the potential and performance of their employees. During the discussion, they map the workers within 1/9 boxes mapped along the x and y-axis.

The workers’ performance is tracked on the x-axis in their current role, which can be high, moderate, or low. The potential of the workers is calculated on the y-axis, on a scale from low to high. Although measuring performance is relatively easy, estimating potential can be difficult. A predictive index behavioral assessment can be used to judge an employee’s potential, and once that is determined, the employee can be placed in the proper track for advancement. This tool helps managers prevent mistakes in evaluating potential. [Read more…] about Using the 9 Box Model for Evaluating Employees

Got A New Job Out Of State? How To Find A New Home Fast

October 21, 2021 by Tim McMahon

If your career is taking you to a new job out of state, you’ll have many details that will need to be worked out in a short amount of time. One of the biggest is finding a new home, which can be challenging even under the best of circumstances. But with the current seller’s market in many areas of the country, finding an affordable home can be difficult.

However, you can solve this problem far quicker than you ever anticipated with some careful planning and determination.

Start Looking at Online Listings

Even if you don’t have a significant amount of time before relocating for your new job, one of the fastest ways to get started on the hunt is by checking online listings. Go online and start looking at listings of homes in the area to which you are moving. Since the pandemic, more agencies are offering homes via virtual tours, so you may be able to find the home you want at a reasonable price while sitting at your computer.

Contact a Local Real Estate Agent

If you aren’t comfortable [Read more…] about Got A New Job Out Of State? How To Find A New Home Fast

Unemployment Falls in July

August 7, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the August 6^th Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for July.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 6.1% to 5.7%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 5.9% to 5.4%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 10.1% to 9.6%
Labor Force Participation UP from 61.6% to 61.7%
Unadjusted Employment fell from 146.603 million to 146.470 million

May Unemployment Down

June 5, 2021 by Tim McMahon

Highlights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment / unemployment report for May released on June 4^th.

Unadjusted U-3 was Down from 5.7% to 5.5%
Adjusted U-3 was Down from 6.1% to 5.8%
Unadjusted U-6 was Down from 9.9% to 9.7%
Labor Force Participation fell from 61.7% to 61.6%
Unadjusted Employment rose from 144.412 million to 145.385 million

Should You Buy a House When Unemployed?

October 31, 2020 by Guest Contributor

For many people, moving from the renting stage to the homeowning stage is a big priority. However, if you are facing unemployment, your work status could negatively impact your ability to pass all the checks necessary to get to the buying part of the process. However, there are still some ways that people dealing with unemployment might be able to get the home they want. Here are some tips that can help you buy a house when unemployed.

Get a Helping Hand

Sometimes owning a Condo, small house or mobile home is actually cheaper than paying rent. In this case, buying might be in your financial best interests, but the trick is going to be getting the money up-front. Perhaps you can get a parent or relative to be your banker and loan you the money to buy your house and they will make the terms flexible enough get you through this tough time of unemployment. But for both of your protection, you should have a written contract with the terms of the loan clearly spelled out.

If you are moving into a new home with a roommate, they may have less debt or better credit than you do. In these cases, it may be a good idea to let that person take the lead on things like a mortgage application. Your unemployed status should not be a factor that works against you if it is the partner signing the agreements. But, once again, if you are going to be a co-owner be sure to get the terms of your agreement in writing. No matter how friendly you are at the moment, you don’t want to end up in court in a “he said she said” situation. If you are making payments to your roommate be sure there is a written record of every payment you make and whether it is an ownership or rental situation.