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You are here: Home / BLS / May Unemployment Still Low

May Unemployment Still Low

June 8, 2019 by Tim McMahon

Adj U3 Icon 3-6 PercentThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for  May on June 7th. Although Unemployment is still at record lows job creation is less than expected.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The U.S. economy created 75,000 jobs in May and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent. However, economists projected a 175,000 jobs gain and instead only got 75,000 so they were disappointed but that didn’t stop the stock market with the DOW gaining over 1% in a single day.

According to the BLS Commissioner’s report for this month:

“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent.
Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care… 
In May, 4.4 million people were working part time for economic reasons (also referred to as involuntary part-time workers),
down by 299,000 from the previous month and by 565,000 over the year.”

Key factors in the report were:
Employment in professional and business services increased by 33,000…
Health Care employment rose by 16,000…
Construction employment increased by 4,000…
Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment remains at its lowest rate since December 1969.

Of course the Commissioner is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. In unadjusted terms April had 150.942 million jobs and May had 151.629 million for an actual increase of 687,000 jobs.

For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:

Key May Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.6% unchanged from April
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  3.4% up from 3.3% in April but down from 3.9% in March and 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  6.7% down from 6.9% in April and 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
  • Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.629 million up from 150.988 million in April, 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January.
  • Labor Force Participation Rate- 62.8% unchanged from April.

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 to find lower levels and remember that was during the boom that followed WWII with a massive loss of the workforce due to the war so we probably won’t see levels that low again.

The 1969 lows occurred during the Vietnam war. Prior to 1969 was a low of 3.7% in 1957.

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Chart

 

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Previous Record Low Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)

If we consider anything 4% or below as “low” we have had a few “low” stretches as we can see in the table below.

(4% or below in Blue)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1950 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.0% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3%
1951 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%
1952 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7%
1953 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 4.5%
1954 4.9% 5.2% 5.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 5.7% 5.3% 5.0%
1955 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2%
1956 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.3% 4.2%
1957 4.2% 3.9% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.4% 4.5% 5.1% 5.2%
1958 5.8% 6.4% 6.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.5% 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% 6.2% 6.2%
… … … … … … … … … … … … …
1965 4.9% 5.1% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0%
1966 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8%
1967 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%
1968 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
1969 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
1970 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 6.1%
… … … … … … … … … … … … …
1999 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0%
2000 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
2001 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.7%
… … … … … … … … … … … … …
2018 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9%
2019 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6%

Employment

Historically employment is closely tied to recessions and that is no accident. One of the primary factors in calculating whether the economy is officially in a recession is an increase in the unemployment rate. The chart below provides the Historical Employment Data overlaid on blue bars showing periods of official recessions.

In May 2019 employment reached 151.629 million up from 150.988 million in April, 149.862 million in March, 149.143 million in February and 148.295 million in January. That was 2.269 million more than the previous May. As we can from the chart the largest loss in numbers of jobs occurred during the “Great Recession” of 2008 and it took several years before employment levels once again reached 2007 levels.

Historical Employment ChartAs we can see from the table below from November 2007 to January 2008 there were over 3 million jobs lost but that actually wasn’t all that surprising. Typically January suffers from a reduction in Seasonal workers. Even good years like 2005-2006 saw a reduction of 3 million workers and January 2008 employment levels were still above January 2007 levels. But by January 2009 year over year losses exceeded 4 million. By 2010 the economy had lost another 4.2 million. 2011 showed almost a million jobs improvement but the economy was still on shaky ground. It wasn’t until January 2014 that the economy reached January 2007 levels and January 2015 exceeded January 2008 levels.

Date Employment in Millions
January 2007 135.335
November 2007 (Peak) 139.510
January 2008 136.268
January 2009 132.042
January 2010 127.820
January 2011 128.778
January 2012 131.113
January 2013 133.081
January 2014 135.488
January 2015 138.511
January 2016 141.088
January 2017 143.393
January 2018 145.428
January 2019 148.295
February 2019 149.148
March 2019 149.864
April 2019 150.942
May 2019 151.629

Employment Numbers are “Preliminary” for two months before the BLS considers them finalized due to late coming data.

See Historical Employment and Current Employment for more info.

 

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below there are four sectors to the left of the vertical zero line this month, meaning that they lost employees. The biggest loser is retail with a loss of -7,600 jobs. Other losers are Information at -5,000, Other Services -1,000 and Transportation and Warehousing -200.

The biggest gainer (furthest to the right on the chart) was Professional and Business Services adding 33,000 jobs (on top of the 76,000 jobs gained last month) this is an above average paid sector earning $1,213.15 on average per week. This far outweighs the loss of lower paid retail jobs.

Education and Health Services added 27,000 moderate paying jobs with an average weekly earning of $906.84. Leisure and Hospitality added 26,000 low paid jobs at an average of $427.35/wk.

Average weekly wages rose slightly $955.29 in April to $957.35 in May.

May Employment by Sector

 

(See the table below for average weekly earnings and other details.)

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

  • Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
  • Average Weekly earnings.
  • The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
  • The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

  • Total Employment for the sector.
  • Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry

May 2019, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry Monthly Increase Average Weekly Earnings Employment Level
Total Private Employment 90,000 $957.35 128,581,000
Mining and Logging 1,000 $1,551.51 757,000
Construction 4,000 $1,199.59 7,482,000
Manufacturing 3,000 $1,119.34 12,839,000
Wholesale trade 7,100 $1,220.68 5,939,600
Retail trade -7,600 $597.73 15,780,600
Transportation and Warehousing -200 $957.50 5,538,100
Utilities 400 $1,761.46 552,400
Information -500 $1,515.33 2,797,000
Financial Activities 2,000 $1,350.59 8,652,000
Professional and Business Services 33,000 $1,213.15 21,427,000
Education and Health Services 27,000 $906.84 24,171,000
Leisure and Hospitality 26,000 $427.35 16,721,000
Other Services -1,000 $792.46 5,924,000

Note: Based on this table by the BLS there was a seasonally adjusted gain of 90,000 jobs not the 75,000 mentioned by the Commissioner.

The Differential between U3 and U6

The differential between the unadjusted U3 and U6 (reached by subtracting U3 from U6) bottomed at 3.5% during late 2018 but then it spiked up culminating in a 4.4% differential in January. But in February it fell back to 3.6% where it remained in March and April. But fell to 3.3% in May indicating a tightening labor market.

U6 minus U3 Unemployment Chart

 

See Current U-6 Unemployment Rate for more info.

U-6 Unemployment

U3 vs U6 Unemployment Chart

Current U-6  Unadjusted Unemployment Rate for May fell to 6.7% from 6.9% in April

It was 7.5% in March and 7.7% in February. January 2019 was 8.8% and it was 7.5% in December 2018.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Labor Force Participation Rate

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for May was unchanged from April’s 62.8% but down from March’s 63.0%, and down from it’s January and February peak at 63.2%.

Labor Force Participation Rate Chart

 

See Labor Force Participation Rate for more information.

Employment Population Ratio

Seasonally Adjusted Employment Population Ratio

 

The index many people think of when they hear the term Labor Force Participation Rate might be better described by the Employment Population Ratio. This index shows the percentage of the entire population that is working. In many ways it is a better index than the LFPR or the Unemployment rate. Current levels are back in the range of where they were in 2009 even though the population has drastically increased.

 

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Filed Under: BLS Tagged With: BLS, Bubble, Charts, employment, Sector, U-3, U-6, U-6 Unemployment, unemployment

About Tim McMahon

Work by editor and author, Tim McMahon, has been featured in Bloomberg, CBS News, Wall Street Journal, Christian Science Monitor, Forbes, Washington Post, Drudge Report, The Atlantic, Business Insider, American Thinker, Lew Rockwell, Huffington Post, Rolling Stone, Oakland Press, Free Republic, Education World, Realty Trac, Reason, Coin News, and Council for Economic Education. Connect with Tim on Google+

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