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February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

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Unemployment 3.8%The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment survey results for February on March 8th and it has the market pundits wringing their hands over the mere 20,000 jobs created after projections were for 175,000 jobs. Optimists are blaming the government shutdown combined with the weather causing a lack of construction jobs in the Seasonally Adjusted jobs numbers.

But if job creation is only 20,000 why is Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment down from 8.8% in January to 7.7% in February? Why has the unemployment rate for Hispanics dropped to another mega low of 4.3%? And why is the unemployment rate for Women 3.6%?

The non-seasonally adjusted jobs number is up by 827,000 jobs from January to February compared to an increase of 1.237 million during the same period last year and an increase of 1.03 million from January – February 2017.  So, yes the increase is considerably smaller but as we near full employment it becomes progressively harder to find new employees even if you have jobs available. The problem shifts from a lack of jobs to a lack of qualified employees.

Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment-   3.8% down from 4.0% in January, 3.9% in December and 3.7% in November.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment-  4.1% down from 4.4% in January, 3.7% in December and 3.5% in November.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment-  7.7% down from 8.8% in January, 7.5% in December and 7.2% in November.
  • Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 149.133 up from 148.201 million in January, 151.190 million in December and 151.244 million in November.
  • February Labor Force Participation Rate- Unchanged at 63.2% up from 63.1% in December and LFPR 62.9% highest since 2013.  
  • 101st straight gain in Seasonally Adjusted Employment- (Household Survey) 156.949 up from 156.694 in January

Current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are hovering around the lows of 2000. Prior to that we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. Current levels are rising a bit from a cyclical low not seen since 1969. Also noteworthy is that levels do not stay this low for very long. The longest low like this was the seven month period from October 1968 through April 1969. Prior to 1969 was a one month low of 3.7% in 1957. On the plus side, [Read more…] about February Unemployment- Only 20,000 New Jobs?

March Employment Tops 147 Million

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Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of March on Friday April 6th .

According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate is unchanged for the 6th month in a row. So from October through March the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%. This month the unadjusted U-3 was also 4.1%.

Many Experts consider this to be the new “Full Employment” level i.e. everyone who wants a job has found one however with the Labor Force Participation rate still well below the average that is debatable.  See Is the U.S. Really at “Full Employment”? for more information.

Key March Employment and Unemployment Numbers

  • Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
  • Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% down from 4.4% February.
  • Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.1% down from 8.6% in February.
  • Employment 147,332 million up from 146.667 million in February and 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
  • Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.

See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.

Employment by Sector

The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below three sectors are to the left of the zero line this month indicating that all other sectors gained employees in March except Construction which lost -15,000 employees, Retail which lost -4,400 employees, and “Other Services” which lost -1,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.

Employment by SectorThe biggest gainer was Professional and Business Services (bubble furthest to the right) which added 33,000 jobs, followed by Education and Health Services which gained 25,000 jobs and Manufacturing which gained 22,000 jobs on top of last months 31,000 manufacturing jobs gained. Average weekly earnings for all industries increased from $922.88 to $925.29.

(See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)

 

How to read this chart:

Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:

  • Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
  • Average Weekly earnings.
  • The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
  • The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.

Bubble Size tells us:

  • Total Employment for the sector.
  • Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.

Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees

March  2018, Seasonally Adjusted

Industry Monthly Increase Average Weekly Earnings Employment Level
Total Private Employment 102,000 $925.29 125,904,000
Mining and Logging 8,000 $1,501.44 722,000
Construction -15,000 $1,153.66 7,150,000
Manufacturing 22,000 $1,098.57 12,632,000
Wholesale trade 11,400 $1,178.97 5,967,300
Retail trade -4,400 $576.58 15,915,900
Transportation and Warehousing 9,800 $942.35 5,279,300
Utilities 4,000 $1,674.74 559,000
Information 2,000 $1,410.43 2,760,000
Financial Activities 2,000 $1,297.20 8,546,000
Professional and Business Services 33,000 $1,162.42 20,803,000
Education and Health Services 25,000 $882.38 23,483,000
Leisure and Hospitality 5,000 $412.64 16,256,000
Other Services -1,000 $770.31 5,830,000

U-6 Unemployment

U3 vs U6 UnemploymentLooking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 8.9% in January to 8.6% in February and fell further to 8.1% in March.

See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.

Employment

Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by 665,000  jobs in March. The BLS Commissioner said:“ Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, following a large gain in February (+326,000)… 

Historical Employment

Over the month, job gains occurred in manufacturing, health care, and mining… Manufacturing employment rose by 22,000… Employment in health care increased by 22,000 in March and has grown by 304,000 over the year…. Mining employment rose by 9,000… Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in March (+33,000). Over the year, employment in the industry has increased by 502,000, with gains distributed across most of the component industries.” [Read more…] about March Employment Tops 147 Million