The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for June on July 7th 2023.
Adjusted Unemployment down Slightly
- Adjusted U-3 was 3.6% down from 3.7%
- Unadjusted U-3 was 3.8% up from 3.4%
- Unadjusted U-6 was 7.2% Up from 6.4%
- Labor Force Participation unchanged at 62.6%
- Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.266 to 156.963 million
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction… Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March 2022.”
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 156.306 million for May which they adjusted to 156.266 million. So, they subtracted 40,000 jobs for May. They are now reporting 156.963 million jobs for June which is actually an increase of 657,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 697,000 based on their updated numbers.
Current Employment Rate Chart
Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5%. We’ve been saying that “typically, March or April has one of the lowest unemployment rates for the year, so we could see a slight increase from here without an actual deterioration of the labor market.” And that is precisely what is happening. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.
