The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly unemployment survey results for July on August 2nd. Unemployment is still near record lows but this month’s Unemployment report was a bit of a “mixed bag” with some positive news and some not quite so positive.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities.
The July increase in payroll employment was in line with the average monthly job gain in the first half of the year (+165,000), but below the average monthly job gain of 223,000 for 2018. (Incorporating revisions for May and June, which decreased employment by 41,000, monthly job gains have averaged 140,000 over the past 3 months.) ”
Of course he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs” in reality there were 152.307 million people employed according to the BLS’ June report and then they adjusted it down to 152.242 million but in July there are only 151.183 million employed so there was either a decrease of -1.059 million jobs based on the new numbers or a decrease of -1.124 million based on the original numbers. But there were only 148.295 million employed in January so there about 2.88 million more people employed in July than in January.
For more info see our Current Unemployment Chart and Current U.S. Employment Chart commentary:
Key July Employment and Unemployment Numbers
- Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 3.7% Unchanged from June
- Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.0% Up from 3.8% in June and 3.4% in May but still below 4.1% in February, and 4.4% in January.
- Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 7.3% down from 7.5% in June Up from 6.7% in May. It was 7.5% in March, 7.7% in February and 8.8% in January.
- Unadjusted Employment (Establishment Survey)- 151.183 million down from 152.307 million in June up from 148.295 million in January.
- Labor Force Participation Rate- 63.0% up from 62.9% June, 62.8% in April and May but unchanged from 63.0% in March and still below the peak of 63.2% in February.
Although they rose a notch in June (and stayed there in July), current Seasonally Adjusted U-3 levels are still below the 3.8% lows of 2000. Prior to that, we have to go all the way back to 1969 to see better unemployment levels than we have currently. If we break below 3.4% we have to go all the way back to 1953 (during the Korean War) to find lower levels. And we must remember that there was a massive loss of the workforce due to the war, and a higher percentage of the population was not counted due to “farming”, so we probably won’t see levels that low again. The 1969 lows occurred during the Vietnam war. Prior to 1969 was a low of 3.7% in 1957 so we are currently at that level. As we can see from the above chart we are in one of only 5 “green zones” where unemployment levels are below 4%. Not even the “boom” period 2006-2007 reached such low levels.