The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for January on February 7th, 2025.
Employment / Unemployment
- Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.0% Down from December
- Unadjusted U3- 4.4% Up from December
- Unadjusted U6- 8.2% Up from December
- Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6% Up
- Employment 157.091 million Down from 159.943 million
- Next data release March 7th, 2025
Summary:
The BLS sent mixed signals in January, with the Commissioner’s report stating a rise in employment and a fall in adjusted unemployment. However, the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report shows a decline in the number of employed and a massive downward adjustment in employment for all of 2023 and 2024.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry…
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent in January, after accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls. The number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, changed little over the month.”
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.458 million for December
which they just adjusted to 159.943 million.
They are currently reporting 157.091 million jobs for January which is actually a decrease of 3,367,000 jobs compared to their originally reported numbers or a decrease of 2,852,000 based on their new numbers.
Despite the drop in employment the LFPR was up from 62.5% to 62.6% which could indicate an increase in people entering the labor force rather than an increase in jobs.
Current Unemployment Rate Chart
As the chart below shows, although unemployment is still low, it is above the lows of 2019 and 2023. At 4.0%, Seasonally Adjusted unemployment is still “Very Good”.
