On Friday March 9th the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly employment survey results for the month of February.
According to the BLS the Seasonally Adjusted U-3 Unemployment Rate for February is unchanged for the 5th month in a row. That’s right from October through February the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment rate has been 4.1%.
This is a very low level and we really don’t expect it to get too much lower.
Key February Employment and Unemployment Numbers
- Adjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.1% unchanged since October.
- Unadjusted U-3 Unemployment- 4.4% down from 4.5% January.
- Unadjusted U-6 Unemployment- 8.6% down from 8.9% in January.
- Employment 146.696 million up from 145.473 million in January but down from 148.346 million in December and 148.526 million in November.
- Gallup has discontinued publishing U-6 & U-3 numbers.
See Current Unemployment Chart for more info.
Employment by Sector
The employment “bubble chart” gives us a good representation of how each sector of the economy is doing (employment wise). As we can see from the chart below the only sector to the left of the zero line is Information meaning that all other sectors gained employees in February except information which lost -12,000 employees on a “Seasonally Adjusted” basis.
The biggest gainer was construction (bubble furthest to the right) which added 61,000 jobs, followed by Retail Trade which gained 50,300 jobs and Professional and Business Services which gained 50,000 jobs even manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs. (See the table below the chart for average weekly earnings and other details.)
How to read this chart:
Bubbles location on the chart tell us two things:
- Change in Employment Levels over the most recent month.
- Average Weekly earnings.
- The further to the right the bubble the larger the increase in the number of jobs.
- The higher up on the chart the larger the average salary.
Bubble Size tells us:
- Total Employment for the sector.
- Larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector.
Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry for All Employees
February 2018, Seasonally Adjusted
| Industry | Monthly Increase | Average Weekly Earnings | Employment Level |
| Total Private Employment | 287,000 | $922.88 | 125,819,000 |
| Mining and Logging | 8,000 | $1,485.78 | 713,000 |
| Construction | 61,000 | $1,158.17 | 7,173,000 |
| Manufacturing | 31,000 | $1,100.03 | 12,614,000 |
| Wholesale trade | 5,800 | $1,185.12 | 5,956,200 |
| Retail trade | 50,300 | $572.55 | 15,926,200 |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 15,400 | $940.60 | 5,263,400 |
| Utilities | 1,200 | $1,658.82 | 553,400 |
| Information | -12,000 | $1,418.40 | 2,748,000 |
| Financial Activities | 28,000 | $1,290.81 | 8,547,000 |
| Professional and Business Services | 50,000 | $1,161.30 | 20,760,000 |
| Education and Health Services | 23,000 | $882.75 | 23,466,000 |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 16,000 | $410.81 | 16,262,000 |
| Other Services | 10,000 | $768.73 | 5,837,000 |
U-6 Unemployment
Looking at the broader measure of Unemployment which includes discouraged workers, we see that the U-6 unemployment rate fell from 10.1% in January to 9.5% in 2017 and from 8.9% to 8.6% in 2018.
From the table at the left we can also see that U-6 unemployment went from 9.2% in October 2016 to 7.6% in 2017.
Similarly it fell from 9.0% in November 2016 to 7.7% in 2017 and from 9.1% in December 2016 to 8.0% in 2017.
See Unadjusted U-6 unemployment for more info.
Employment
Over the last month, the actual number of people working (not seasonally adjusted) has increased by
over 1.2 Million. However in the BLS Commissioner’s report he said:“ Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Job gains occurred in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, and mining.”
However, if we look at the Not Seasonally Adjusted numbers we find that employment was 145,472,000 in January and 146,696,000 in February. So as they stand right now that gives us an increase of 1.224 million jobs in February.
However, as noted above the BLS commissioner said jobs increased by 313,000. That is because he is talking about “Seasonally Adjusted” jobs. Meaning that although actual jobs are up by over 1.2 Million, they are up by 313,000 more than average for this time of year.
Employment / Population Ratio
If you take the number of jobs and divide it by the population you get what percentage of the population is working. You would think this would be a much more accurate indicator than the unemployment rate. If we look at the current Employment Population Ratio chart you will see that it fell drastically beginning in 2008 and has since begun climbing but it is still nowhere near previous levels. As a matter of fact it isn’t even up to the previous lows of 1992 and 2003. So the fact that the “unemployment rate is the same” is a bit misleading since a much smaller percentage of the population is actually working. Bureau of Labor Statistics Series LNS12300000.
Labor Force Participation Rate
You might be wondering if recessions have any effect on the LFPR. It might make sense that the LFPR would fall during a recession.
In the chart above we can see both LFPR vs. Recessions. And the results were a bit surprising. The red arrows indicate short term trends and the blue arrows indicate longer term trends.
See Labor Force Participation Rate for more information.
For more information See:
- Article: Employment vs. Unemployment how do they compare?
- Historical Employment Data Chart
- Current Unemployment Rate Chart
- Current Employment vs Unemployment Chart Are they really “two sides of the same coin”?
- What is U-6 Unemployment?
- The Misery index measures inflation plus unemployment and is a good measure of the discomfort of the country’s population.
- More Unemployment and Employment Charts
