The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for November on December 6^th, 2024.

Employment / Unemployment 

• Seasonally Adjusted U3- 4.2% Up from October
• Unadjusted U3- 4.0% Up from October
• Unadjusted U6- 7.4% Up from October
• Labor Force Participation Rate 62.5% down from October
• Employment 160.560 million up from 160.035 million
• Next data release January 3^rd, 2025

Summary:
Total Employed increased in November, but Unemployment increased. Labor Force Participation fell by 0.1%.  In the perversity of markets, overall, the report was sufficiently bad to give the market hope for another rate cut by the FED.

According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in November. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million.”

As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.

Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 160.007 million for October
which they adjusted slightly to 160.035 million.

They are currently reporting 160.560 million jobs for November which is actually an increase of 525,000 jobs based on the new numbers or 553,000 based on the original numbers. The LFPR was down from 62.6% to 62.5%.

Bad News is Good News?

Once again, the stock market took the report as bad enough to generate hope that the FED will cut rates again soon but not so bad to wreck the economy.

Current Unemployment Rate Chart

As we can see from the chart below, although still low, over the last year unemployment has risen 0.8% from the lows of 2023. At 4.2% unemployment is no longer in the “Excellent” range but still in the “Very Good” range.

Current Employment Rate

At 160.560 million in November, employment is up from the originally reported 160.007 million in October.

See Current Employment  for more information.

BLS: November 2024 Employment by Sector

The BLS employment “bubble chart” based on the Establishment Survey Data gives us a good picture of the Seasonally adjusted employment numbers.

The Bubble’s Size tells us the total Employment for that industry (i.e., larger bubbles mean more people are employed in that sector).

The bubble’s location on the chart tells us that there has been a change in Employment Levels over the most recent month… A bubble further to the right indicates larger job growth. A bubble’s vertical location on the chart shows the average industry salary.

Remember, these are Seasonally Adjusted Numbers, so they aren’t cumulative!

Looking at the above chart we can see that retail was below zero (i.e., left of the zero line). Several others were very close to zero.

BLS Average Weekly Wages

Have Wages Kept Up With Inflation?

As you can see from the table above average weekly wages are trending up but are they up enough to keep up with inflation?

Read More.

BLS Employment and Average Weekly Earnings by Industry

November 2024, Seasonally Adjusted Employment

Note that due to “seasonal adjusting,” although they may claim that there was a “monthly increase” (or decrease), there isn’t always an actual increase; you can’t just subtract last month’s “employment level” from this month’s level. For instance, Construction was supposed to be up by 10,000 in November. But October was 8,310,000 and November was 8,313,000 which looks like a 3,000 job increase. And Manufacturing looks more like a 14,000 increase than the reported 22,000 increase.

Source: BLS

ADP’s increase was lower than the BLS but they tried to put a positive spin on it by saying “Strong hiring at large employers led this month’s growth.”

ADP^® National Employment Report

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab.

Compared to the Seasonally adjusted -28,000 reported by the Bubble Chart or the actual calculated -136,000 ADP is optimistic and says there were 233,000 new jobs. Of course, this could be because people were taking on an additional part-time job.

ADP: Private employers added 146,000 jobs in November

Source: ADP®

ADP Private Employment by Establishment Size

November ADP Changes:

ADP Job Gainers / Losers

ADP provides an entirely different picture of the job situation compared to the BLS perspective. While the BLS says only Retail lost jobs, ADP says only Manufacturing lost jobs.

Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is up 0.1% at 4.2%.

Labor Force Participation Rate

The LFPR is down from 62.6% to 62.5%.

See Labor Force Participation Rate for more information.

Less Than Full Employment

This chart compares employment levels with the (inverted) unemployment rate.

Full Employment is when everyone who wants a job has one. It is generally considered to be around 3%. After the unemployment rate almost touched the magic full employment line in April 2023, it began moving away (i.e., higher unemployment).

Note: The Unemployment rate is inverted to track the employment rate. Neither is Seasonally Adjusted. For more information see Employment vs. Unemployment.

Note: Full employment is not considered to be at zero percent because even when employers are having difficulty finding employees, some people are still unemployed due to either:

1. structural unemployment (mismatch between worker skills and job requirements, i.e., not enough training) or
2. frictional unemployment There will always be people who have quit or have lost a seasonal job and are in the process of getting a new job. Or
3. Simply because they quit their job knowing it would be easy to find another (hopefully better) job.

Seasonally Adjusted U1 through U6 Unemployment Rates

For more information about the various measurements of unemployment, see  What Is U-6 Unemployment?

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment by Education

This chart refutes the idea that getting a college education doesn’t help you find a job. Those with some college have half the unemployment level than someone without a High School diploma. But it doesn’t show whether they are “underemployed” i.e. working as a Barista at Starbucks or flipping burgers at McDonalds. And these numbers only apply to people over the age of 25 (so they have had some time to settle in).

One interesting note this month is the decline in the unemployment rate for those with less than a high school diploma. In August the unemployment level for the less educated was 7.1% but by November it fell to 6.0%. Surprisingly, unemployment for those with a High School diploma has increased over the same period.

Source: BLS

Employment-Population Ratio

This charts shows the Employment-Population Ratio by Gender with a total of 60.0% of the population working (down from 60.2% last month). It also shows the breakdown by gender. Men make up a much larger portion of the workforce, i.e., 67.5% of men are employed and only 56.4% of women are employed. But…

As you can see 20 years ago, back in 2004, almost 72% of men were working and 56.6% of women were working. In 2008 the Great Recession caused a massive decline in employment for both men and women. By December of 2009, only 66.4% of men were working and 55.4% of women. Over the next decade, women workers rebounded to 57.5% but men only rebounded to 69.3%.

Now less than 68% of men are working and 56.4% of women are working, so it isn’t women who have left the workforce but men. Perhaps there are more stay-at-home Dads because their wives could earn more? Or more men decided to retire in 2009 and 2020, rather than returning to the workforce.