The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its employment / unemployment report for October on November 3rd, 2023.
Unadjusted U3 Unemployment Unchanged
- Adjusted U-3 was 3.9% up from 3.8% in September
- Unadjusted U-3 was 3.6% unchanged
- Unadjusted U-6 was 6.8% up from 6.7%
- Labor Force Participation was 62.7% down from 62.8% in September
- Unadjusted Employment rose from 156.918 to 157.984 million
Summary:
Total Employed increased in October, Unemployment was little changed, and Labor Force Participation was down slightly.
According to the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing
due to strike activity…
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women
(3.3 percent), teenagers (13.2 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (5.8 percent), Asians (3.1
percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little change in October.”
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of 157.001 million for September which they adjusted to 156.918 million. So, they subtracted 83,000 jobs for September. They are currently reporting 157.984 million jobs for October which is actually an increase of 983,000 jobs based on their original estimates or an increase of 1,066,000 based on their updated numbers. But despite a supposed million plus new jobs the unemployment rate is virtually unchanged (and LFPR fell)?
BLS Source
Current Unemployment Rate Chart
Adjusted Unemployment is slightly above the pre-COVID 2019 cyclical lows of 3.5% as well as above the lows made earlier this year. Current levels are still within the “Green Zone”.
