Current Employment Rate–

At 160.007 million in October, employment is up slightly from the originally reported 159.177 million in September.

Typically, after January’s employment decline, employment moves almost straight up to a small peak around June with a slight drop in July, and then the highest peak in employment happens in November with a slight decline in December. In May 2024 employment exceeded November 2023’s peak with June slightly higher. In July employment fell per usual, but the market sold off, taking the drop as a sign of an impending recession.

Employment data from the BLS’ Current Employment Statistics program

Employment is 2.129 million Above Year-Ago Levels
and 9.039 million above February 2020 (prior to the Covid Crash)

However, the Civilian Population has also increased by about 9.661 million since February 2020.

Note: The BLS has adjusted the Employment numbers multiple times over the years, beyond the 2-month adjustment period and the annual readjustment, so we include the numbers as originally posted along with the difference. The difference on several occasions is over a million jobs added to the originally reported numbers (in Blue).

Employment in Millions

The number in the right-hand column is how far off the original numbers were from their current numbers, (sometimes a million jobs difference). Such as, June 2018, August 2012, and December 2012.

Date	Latest BLS Numbers (in Millions)	Original BLS Numbers (in Millions)	Change from Original (in thousands)
Oct-2024	160.007	160.007	NA
Sep-2024	159.181	159.177	4
Aug-2024	158.717	158.650	67
Jul-2024	158.399	158.445	-46
Jun-2024	159.341	159.392	-51
May-2024	158.842	158.918	-76
Apr-2024	158.001	158.016	-15
Mar-2024	157.210	157.218	-8
Feb-2024	156.551	156.555	-4
Jan-2024	155.432	155.626	-194
Dec-2023	158.261	158.228	41
Nov-2023	158.347	158.461	-114
Oct-2023	157.878	157.984	-106
Sep-2023	156.845	157.001	-156
Aug-2023	156.355	156.302	53
July 2023	155.981	156.126	-145
June 2023	156.842	156.963	-121
May-2023	156.132	156.306	-174
Apr-2023	155.201	155.337	-136
Mar-2023	154.253	154.517	-264
Feb-2023	153.817	153.955	-138
Jan-2023	152.688	152.844	-156
Dec-2022	155.211	154.771	440
Nov-2022	155.519	154.990	529
Oct-2022	155.936	154.369	567
Sep-2022	153.730	153.073	657
Aug-2022	153.208	152.572	713
Jul-2022	152.813	152.249	636
Jun-2022	153.175	152.692	564
May-2022	152.264	151.773	483
Apr-2022	151.434	150.938	491
Mar-2022	150.411	149.938	473
Feb-2022	149.606	148.967	639
Jan-2022	147.932	147.525	407
Dec-2021	150.740	150.170	570
Nov-2021	150.543	150.004	539
Oct-2021	149.605	149.217	388
Sep-2021	147.917	147.682	235
Aug-2021	147.159	146.856	303
Jul-2021	146.619	146.470	149
Jun-2021	146.626	146.517	109
May-2021	145.392	145.385	7
Apr-2021	144.402	144.398	4
Mar-2021	143.308	143.400	-92
Feb-2021	142.129	141.926	203
Jan-2021	140.974	140.927	47
Dec-2020	143.604	143.777	-173
Nov-2020	144.116	144.005	111
Oct-2020	143.564	143.459	105
Sep-2020	141.957	141.855	102
Aug-2020	140.727	140.598	129
Jul-2020	139.105	139.100	5
Jun-2020	138.507	138.513	-6
May-2020	133.422	133.342	80
Apr-2020	130.253	131.071	-818
Mar-2020	149.952	150.804	-852
Feb-2020	150.967	150.997	-30
Jan-2020	150.056	150.102	-46
Dec-2019	152.845	153.342	-497
Nov-2019	153.095	153.624	-529
Oct-2019	152.500	152.962	-462
Sep-2019	151.510	151.949	-439
Aug-2019	151.094	151.517	-423
Jul-2019	150.658	151.183	-525
Jun-2019	151.714	152.307	-593
May-2019	151.093	151.629	-536
Apr-2019	150.422	150.988	-566
Mar-2019	149.360	149.867	-507
Feb-2019	148.683	149.133	-450
Jan-2019	147.878	148.201	-323
Dec-2018	150.831	151.190	-359
Nov-2018	151.032	151.232	-200
Oct-2018	150.553	150.753	-200
Sep-2018	149.545	149.741	-196
Aug-2018	149.236	149.226	10
Jul-2018	148.767	148.901	-134
Jun-2018	149.930	148.912	1,018
May-2018	149.264	149.309	-45
Apr-2018	148.329	148.332	-3
Mar-2018	147.352	147.332	20
Feb-2018	146.649	146.696	-47
Jan-2018	145.412	145.473	-61
Dec-2017	148.509	148.346	163
Nov-2017	148.758	148.507	251
Oct-2017	148.182	148.006	176
Sep-2017	147.169	146.880	289
Aug-2017	146.782	146.541	241
Jul-2017	146.464	146.368	96
Jun-2017	147.566	147.388	178
May-2017	146.924	146.748	176
Apr-2017	146.086	145.979	107
Mar-2017	145.062	144.949	113
Feb-2017	144.405	144.271	134
Jan-2017	143.376	143.220	156
Dec-2016	146.252	146.148	104
Nov-2016	146.465	146.399	66
Oct-2016	146.032	145.928	104
Sep-2016	145.150	144.943	207
Aug-2016	144.485	144.424	61
Jul-2016	144.232	144.185	47
Jun-2016	145.205	145.239	-34
May-2016	144.540	144.592	-52
Apr-2016	143.893	143.944	-51
Mar-2016	142.797	142.877	-80
Feb-2016	141.901	142.005	-104
Jan-2016	141.072	141.123	-51
Dec-2015	144.045	144.191	-146
Nov-2015	144.049	144.128	-79
Oct-2015	143.626	143.739	-113
Sep-2015	142.477	142.627	-150
Aug-2015	141.921	142.126	-205
Jul-2015	141.729	141.794	-65
Jun-2015	142.681	142.817	-136
May-2015	142.205	142.420	-215
Apr-2015	141.264	141.462	-198
Mar-2015	140.080	140.326	-246
Feb-2015	139.323	139.566	-243
Jan-2015	138.491	138.728	-237
Dec-2014	141.306	141.256	50
Nov-2014	141.314	141.301	13
Oct-2014	140.848	140.817	31
Sep-2014	139.793	139.752	41
Aug-2014	139.105	138.989	116
Jul-2014	138.727	138.666	61
Jun-2014	139.804	139.761	43
May-2014	139.217	139.192	25
Apr-2014	138.306	138.288	18
Mar-2014	137.169	137.135	34
Feb-2014	136.211	136.183	28
Jan-2014	135.471	135.396	75
Dec-2013	138.274	137.753	521
Nov-2013	138.525	137.942	583
Oct-2013	138.001	137.540	461
Sep-2013	137.077	136.600	477
Aug-2013	136.471	135.961	510
Jul-2013	136.034	135.664	370
Jun-2013	137.209	136.805	404
May-2013	136.797	136.367	430
Apr-2013	135.905	135.494	411
Mar-2013	134.901	134.485	416
Feb-2013	134.102	133.603	499
Jan-2013	133.063	132.705	358
Dec-2012	135.947	134.822	1,125
Nov-2012	136.023	135.069	954
Oct-2012	135.633	134.792	841
Sep-2012	134.783	133.797	986
Aug-2012	134.156	133.092	1,064
Jul-2012	133.778	132.868	910
Jun-2012	134.986	134.072	914
May-2012	134.648	133.723	925
Apr-2012	133.836	132.945	891
Mar-2012	132.954	132.081	873
Feb-2012	132.050	131.210	840
Jan-2012	131.094	130.297	797
Dec-2011	133.701	132.965	736
Nov-2011	133.876	133.172	704
Oct-2011	133.540	132.870	670
Sep-2011	132.617	131.746	871
Aug-2011	131.870	131.058	812
Jul-2011	131.599	130.821	778
Jun-2011	132.871	132.144	727
May-2011	132.382	131.707	675
Apr-2011	131.698	131.072	626
Mar-2011	130.482	129.899	583
Feb-2011	129.576	128.994	582
Jan-2011	128.760	128.183	577
Dec-2010	131.622	131.050	572
Nov-2010	131.930	131.371	559
Oct-2010	131.624	131.071	553
Sep-2010	130.650	130.090	560
Aug-2010	130.158	129.624	534
Jul-2010	130.094	129.569	525
Jun-2010	131.431	130.908	523
May-2010	131.313	130.801	512
Apr-2010	130.195	129.698	497
Mar-2010	129.073	128.584	489
Feb-2010	128.240	127.746	494
Jan-2010	127.804	127.309	495

ADP^® National Employment Report

ADP provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls. According to ADP®, In collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. Their numbers are generally entirely different from the numbers generated by the BLS household survey or BLS establishment survey.

According to the BLS: “The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.”

According to the BLS Commissioner’s Report Seasonally Adjusted numbers…

“Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000)…”

ADP was much more upbeat…

ADP: Private employers added 233,000 jobs in October

• Job creation hit its highest level since July 2023 as the economy worked through hurricane recovery. Manufacturing was the only sector to shed jobs.

ADP also lists increases by “firm size”.
This month, net job losses in some firms were countered by gains in others.

ADP Changes:

Looking Back at 2020

In 2020, the COVID virus short-circuited the normal trend with a drop that began in March, and by April, it had wiped out all the employment gains since July 2010. June 2020 saw employment rebound to approximately the January 2015 level. Fortunately, July did not follow the traditional falling pattern but instead rose (although only slightly). August’s employment rose to roughly the January 2016 level. September 2020 employment rose roughly triple the rate at which it rose in 2019. October 2020’s employment rose to slightly above the January 2017 level. In December, we got the traditional slight decline.  In November and December, employment was still just over 9 million below year-ago levels, and the civilian population has increased by more than a million people. And January got the expected sharp drop. By June 2021, employment rose above the January 2018 level.

The Effects of Population Increases

According to the BLS, in November 2007, there were 139,492,000 people employed, the unadjusted unemployment rate was 4.5%, and the civilian non-institutional population was approximately 232 million. In January of 2022, there were 152,844,000 employed for a net increase of 13.352 million jobs with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 3.9%.

But in November 2023, there were approximately 267.822 million civilians (not in jail, the military, or institutions). So, the population had increased by about 35 million, but there were only 18.97 million more jobs. So, what are the other 16 million people doing? And how can we have a lower unemployment rate with 16 million more not employed? 

According to the Census Bureau, there is one birth every 9 seconds, one death every 10 seconds, and one international immigrant every 32 seconds for a net gain of one person every 22 seconds. That means there are 6.7 births, 6 deaths, and 1.9 net migrations into the U.S. every minute. If we subtract deaths from births, we get a net gain of 0.7 per minute from births and 1.9 from immigration, so we can see that the vast majority of our population gain comes from immigrants. But immigrants need jobs… babies do not.

Employment / Population Ratio vs. Labor Force Participation Rate

The employment-population ratio is probably what people are thinking of when they hear the term Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). The employment-population ratio is actually the percentage of the population that is working… while the LFPR is the percentage of the population that is in the labor force i.e. working or looking for work.

Date	Labor Force Participation Rate	Employment/Population Ratio
July 2007	66.0%	62.9%
July 2010	64.6%	58.5%
July 2015	62.6%	59.3%
July 2018	62.9%	60.5%
July 2019	63.1%	60.8%
July 2020	61.5%	55.2%
July 2021	61.7%	58.4%
July 2022	62.1%	60.0%
November 2022	62.1%	59.9%
December 2022	62.3%	60.1%
January 2023	62.4%	60.2%
February 2023	62.5%	60.2%
March 2023	62.6%	60.4%
April 2023	62.6%	60.4%
May 2023	62.6%	60.3%
June 2023	62.6%	60.3%
July 2023	62.6%	60.4%
August 2023	62.8%	60.4%
September 2023	62.8%	60.4%
October 2023	62.7%	60.2%
November 2023	62.8%	60.4%
December 2023	62.5%	60.1%
January 2024	62.5%	60.2%
February 2024	62.5%	60.1%
March 2024	62.7%	60.3%
April 2024	62.7%	60.2%
May 2024	62.5%	60.1%
June 2024	62.6%	60.1%
July 2024	62.7%	60.0%
August 2024	62.7%	60.0%
September 2024	62.7%	60.2%
October 2024	62.6%	60.0%
Date	Labor Force Participation Rate	Employment/Population Ratio

In 2007 roughly 63% of the population was working, but in 2022-24, just over 60% of the population was working.

Source

For more information, see Employment-Population Ratio or Labor Force Participation Rate.

January Adjustments to the Employment Rate:

In previous years we had our doubts about the January adjustments, we have been tracking the data as released along with the changes since 2012. In 2013 they found 738,000 “previously overlooked” jobs, in January 2014, they found another 513,000 jobs, and in January 2015, they found another 227,000 jobs. In January 2016, they backtracked and erased 75,000 jobs, and in January 2017, the difference was only about 20,000 jobs. The BLS calls this adjustment “Benchmarking”.

January 2022 has once again “benchmarked” the data all the way back to 1990.

2018’s Commissioner’s Comment reads: “Following our usual practice, there were routine annual adjustments to the data from our two surveys. The establishment survey data released today reflect the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, primarily derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which enumerates jobs covered by the unemployment insurance tax system. The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. (Additional information about the benchmark revision and its impact is contained in our news release and on our website at  www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.)”  

2018’s benchmarking increased the number of jobs by an average of about 135,000 from April 2016 through December 2017, which corresponds to the period of change for that year. They say they adjust the numbers only a few years back. But when we actually verify their numbers pre-adjustment and post-adjustment, the changes often go much further back than they claim.  In 2016, the BLS  “Benchmarked” their data back to 2000. Changes in 2014 went all the way back to 1979.

2019’s benchmarking was extremely minor.

2019’s Commissioner’s Comment reads:
With the release of January 2019 data on February 1, 2019, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision of national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.

The March 2018 benchmarked seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm employment is 148,279,000. The not-seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 147,368,000.

Compared with the sample-based, published seasonally adjusted estimate for March 2018, total nonfarm employment had a revision of -1,000 or less than -0.05 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by -16,000, or less than -0.05 percent.

See BLS Changes Employment Numbers for the details.

On the Current Employment Rate Chart below, we can see how the various sets of numbers compare. The 2016- 2018 numbers are so close that it is difficult to see the difference on the chart. However, earlier changes were more significant, resulting is a 1.7 million job total difference. In addition to the issue of the numbers changing, there is the problem that the “Civilian Non-Institutional Population” continues to increase by roughly 200,000 people a month, although from December 2014 – January 2015, there was a massive 700,000 increase… possibly due to the changes allowing illegal aliens to become legal at that time (although the BLS claims that they were just adjusting their numbers to match the Census Bureau numbers). Although, supposedly, they did that the previous year as well, so there was still a massive increase coming from somewhere. The bottom line, though, is that the number of jobs needs to increase more than the population increases for the unemployment rate to actually fall.

Note: Since the changes have been so minor over the last few years, we will not be updating this chart.

According to Shadowstats, the government is really underestimating unemployment by even more than our numbers suggest since “long-term discouraged workers were defined out of official existence in 1994.” The new U-6 numbers only include short-term discouraged workers, long-term discouraged workers are removed from the Labor Force and not counted.

The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate

Plus, according to  David Stockman, a two-term Congressman from Michigan and Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan:

“In fact, at the February 2008 peak prior to the crisis, the BLS reported 138.5 million nonfarm payroll jobs compared to 143.9 million in April 2016. The net gain is thus only 5.6 million, and it means nearly 9 million or 61% of the 14 million new jobs our President has been crowing about are not “new” at all; they were born-again jobs, and even then, they consist of lower-paying and lesser quality jobs than the ones obliterated during the crash and so-called Great Recession.

For instance, there has been a loss of 2.3 million goods-producing jobs in manufacturing, mining/energy, and construction, paying an average of$58,000 per year; and these have been swapped for 1.9 million jobs in leisure and hospitality, paying less than $20,000 per year.”

Historical Background:

The U.S. Employment rate peaked in November 2007 at around 139 million and then fell to 136 million bounced above 138 million before falling below 128 million in January 2010. By December 2012, the number of people employed reached between 135 and 136 million, depending on which BLS numbers you believe. A year later, in December 2013, the BLS was saying the employment was above 138 million, and by December 2014, the official numbers had topped 141 million.

From the Employment Rate Chart, we can see that employment in November 2013 was nearing levels reached in November 2007 when employment peaked at just over 139 million jobs. But then it fell sharply, as it seems to do every January (which is why they “seasonally adjust the numbers” to make annual comparison easier). Once again, we need to note that the total U.S. population (not just the “civilian non-institutional population) has increased from about 305 million to about 323.5 million since 2007.

BLS Changes Employment Numbers

Note:

In January 2018, an average of 135,000 jobs were added, although, in December 2017, jobs increased by 212,000.

In January 2017, 112,000 jobs were added to December 2016.

In January 2016, the “non-adjusted” numbers underwent their annual massage (i.e., adjustment), and this time rather than creating phantom jobs, they actually removed 75,000 phantom jobs.

But in January 2015, the “non-adjusted” numbers were adjusted, and the BLS found roughly 227,000 jobs.

In January 2014 they found roughly 513,000 jobs. And even though they say they only go back three months with their regular adjustment, their annual adjustment can go back years. This time they went back and created more jobs out of thin air going all the way back to 1978. Just like with the “Ministry of Truth” in George Orwell’s classic book “1984” it becomes increasingly difficult to determine where employment really stands and to track any trends if the “yardstick” for measurement is constantly changing.

According to the BLS, “On an annual basis, the establishment survey incorporates a benchmark revision that re-anchors estimates to nearly complete employment counts available from unemployment insurance tax records. The benchmark helps to control for sampling and modeling errors in the estimates. For more information on the annual benchmark revision, please visit www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.”  But that doesn’t explain why they would change data going back several years.

They said the “benchmarking” for January 2014 only went back as far as January 2009, but in actuality, they changed the numbers all the way back to April 1979 — 20 years further than they reported!

For 2015 they “only” changed the numbers as far back as April 2013 and added 227,000 jobs. But the newest change is on top of the change they made in January 2014, which added 513,000 jobs and changed the numbers all the way back to April 1979.

In 2016, the BLS  “Benchmarked” their data back to 2000. Previous revisions have resulted in roughly a 1.5 million job difference, but this revision resulted in very minor differences and even reduced the peaks in recent years minimally. These changes supposedly resulted from a new database for Services for the elderly and persons with disabilities coming online, which allowed the BLS access to more accurate numbers.

In 2013, the BLS changed the employment numbers back through July of 1991. At that time, I contacted the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they pointed me to a short obscure blurb on their website that supposedly explains why they did it.  See BLS Changes Employment Numbers for our full discussion of this (pseudo) BLS explanation. Their justification was that they hadn’t properly counted all the “Property and Casualty insurers”. And somehow, Property and Casualty insurers increased the total number of jobs by 104,000 in August 2010 and by 738,000 in December 2012. Boy, there must have been a lot of Property and Casualty insurers hired during that couple of years of recession!

You can see the cumulative difference between the 2012 numbers and the new numbers on the above chart, the total difference is now 1.478 million jobs.

Note: The Employment rate and the Unemployment rate are based on two entirely different surveys, but theoretically,0 they should be two sides of the same coin. If you look at the chart above, it does look like the employment rate is climbing, i.e., more people are getting jobs as the trend channel does seem to be up.

By looking at the employment rate, we should be able to tell how many jobs there are in our economy, pure and simple. (As Detective Joe Friday in Dragnet would say, “Just the facts, Ma’am”). Are there more jobs than last year? Good! Are there fewer jobs than last year? Not good. Simple as that! But things have gotten a bit more complex with the implementation of Obamacare. It has inadvertently created incentives for companies to switch from full-time employees to part-time employees. Thus, two people may be considered employed where there used to be only one… except there is no additional work being done… but the numbers look better.

We also need to consider the population factor. If the number of jobs stays the same, but the population increases drastically, then the unemployment rate will rise even though the number of jobs stayed the same. So looking at the unemployment rate is also important. Unfortunately, it still doesn’t give us the full picture. If the U.S. population is growing (and it is), but the number of jobs only holds steady, the number of people without jobs will increase. So in order for the real unemployment rate to stay the same, the number of jobs has to increase by at least the same rate as the population. If the number of jobs increases at anything less than the rate at which the population is increasing, the unemployment rate will be increasing.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the Labor Force Participation Rate. If we look at the BLS’ Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate, we see that it has fallen drastically since 2009. Prior to 2009, it held fairly steady at around 66% of the workforce being employed, but it is now below 63%. In January 2015, the Labor Force Participation Rate was 62.9% it slowly worked its way down to 62.5% in October 2015 and November but appears to have bottomed there and now has rebounded a bit back up to 63.0% by Feb-Mar 2017 but couldn’t seem to break the 63% barrier until January and February 2019 when it hit 63.2%.

See What is the Labor Force Participation Rate? for more info on the current LFPR.

See Current Unemployment Rate for an explanation of how the government calculates the official Unemployment rate.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics- Current Employment Rate Data

For more information, see:

• Article: Employment vs. Unemployment how do they compare?
• Historical Employment Data Chart
• Current Unemployment Rate Chart
• Current Employment vs. Unemployment Chart Are they really “two sides of the same coin”?
• What is U-6 Unemployment?
• The Misery index measures inflation plus unemployment and is a good measure of the discomfort of the country’s population.
• More Unemployment and Employment Charts
• 10 Awesome Jobs You Can Do From Home